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Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2024 dry season
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
Key Findings We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2023 and 2024, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of July 29th to September 16th, 2024. The survey covered plots of 825 rice paddy producers. It is found that: • Prices of inputs used in paddy production – labor and mechanization – increased significantly between these two growing seasons by between 36-38 and 59 percent respectively, on average. On the other hand, urea prices declined by 1 percent. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 14 percent. • Nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased over the last two seasons. At the same time, price inflation has been high in the country. Therefore, real profits from paddy rice farming, which are nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, decreased by 15 percent during the dry season of 2024 compared to the dry season of 2023. However, real profits were still higher than two and three years ago. • Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2024 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly higher (+6.9 percent) than in the previous dry season. • Six percent of the rice farmers reported to have been affected by flooding during the dry season, even before cyclone Yagi affected many farmers in the beginning of September 2024. Recommended Actions • As paddy prices have gone up compared to last year, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial. • The cyclone Yagi has affected a significant share of monsoon producers. Assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from floods in time for the post-/pre-monsoon is called for.
Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – October 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.
Community and household shocks: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2024. It follows six rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the seventh round related to shocks including conflict, climatic, service sector, and economic. The security situation in Myanmar continued to worsen during the seventh-round recall period, which spanned from January to June 2024. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households, and had low levels of trust in their communities, as reported also by 23 percent of households. This is because crime and violence remained high, affecting 16 and 9 percent of communities, respectively. Lawlessness continues to be a widespread issue in Myanmar. In January–June 2024, 18 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community and 13 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. A new challenge is risk of conscription, reported by 39 percent of households. Another crucial challenge is that 13 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community.
Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using three publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.
How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar?
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
Fluctuations in agricultural prices pose significant challenges for fragile and conflict-affected economies due to their critical role in ensuring food security. This study examines changes in agricultural prices at the export, wholesale, and farm level in the case of Myanmar, which experienced a surge in conflicts from 2021 onward, following a military coup. The major findings are as follows: • Regarding macroeconomic impacts, the military government implemented a dual exchange rate system, maintaining a fixed exchange rate significantly below the market rate and effectively imposing an across-the-board export tax on all export commodities of approximately 24 percent between August 2022 and August 2024. This policy particularly affects rice, Myanmar’s main staple and a key export crop. • The scarcity of foreign exchange due to this dual exchange rate system increased the costs of imported inputs. It is estimated that prices of inorganic fertilizers – farmers’ most important commercial input – saw an increase of 10 percent compared to the price in Thailand since the start of the dual exchange rate system. • Regarding domestic trade effects, regions with the highest insecurity exhibited similar agricultural output prices but higher input costs, resulting in reduced farm profitability compared to more secure regions. However, the magnitude of these effects is relatively small, with estimated increases in input prices due to insecurity ranging from one to six percent. Insecure areas also show more often a lack of input availability. • Farmers who reside in insecure areas reported between one and six percentage points higher lack of access to agricultural inputs – fertilizer, agrochemicals, mechanization, and seed - in their communities. The relatively small effects of insecurity on input and output markets suggest a degree of resilience in the private sector’s ability to maintain trade under conflict conditions. • The biggest effect on input markets is seen in the case of agricultural labor. Depending on the measure used, farmers in the most insecure areas had a 7 to 15 percentage points higher likelihood of reporting lack of access to agricultural laborers compared to the most secure areas. • The exchange rate policies are found to have been much more harmful for farmers’ incentives than the domestic trade effects, even for the most conflict-affected areas, indicating the importance of considering macroeconomic effects for agricultural incentives in Myanmar. • Despite the significant disincentives brought about by conflict, the agricultural sector has shown surprising resilience over the recent conflict period, seemingly linked to advantageous international price developments for farmers: international rice prices increased by 27 percent while urea prices decreased by 52 percent between August 2022 and May 2024. • While these international evolutions have partly mitigated the impact of the conflict on farmers’ profitability, the impacts of these price developments on consumers in Myanmar have, however, been severe. An analysis of rice retail prices in Myanmar over the last two and half years show that they have more than tripled and that the overall costs of the common diet more than doubled. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this food price inflation led to an increase in poverty by 10 percent from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023.
Vulnerability and welfare during multiple crises
van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Aung, Zin Wai. 2024
van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Aung, Zin Wai. 2024
Abstract | Link
The triple transition that took place between 2011 and 2019 in Myanmar—from a planned to an open market economy, from military to civilian rule, from conflict to peace—was not without its limitations. As discussed in Chapter 1, poverty reduction was modest relative to economic growth, a fully democratic system was not established, and ethnic conflict continued in many areas. In this mixed context of social welfare improvements and unfulfilled reforms, COVID-19 hit—the first in a series of crises. The pandemic had an immediate adverse impact on Myanmar’s economy and pushed many households into poverty. Then, while the country remained under threat from the pandemic, in February 2021, the military took over in a coup, and Myanmar fell into a political crisis. Declines in welfare accelerated for many. One year later, the Myanmar economy faced sharp rises in prices for food, fuel, and fertilizer as a result of a global economic crisis triggered by the start of the conflict in Ukraine. This triple crisis—pandemic, political, economic— has had enormous impacts on welfare and livelihoods in Myanmar. (Chapter 1 summarizes how the triple crisis unfolded; refer to that chapter for details on the causes, levels, and apparent consequences of the sequence of shocks.)
Crop production: an engine in need of an upgrade
Aung, Nilar; San, Cho Cho; Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart; Naing, Phyo Thandar; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel. 2024
Aung, Nilar; San, Cho Cho; Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart; Naing, Phyo Thandar; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel. 2024
Abstract | Link
According to the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) undertaken in 2017, 54 percent of rural households and 8.4 percent of urban households earn some of their income from crop farming (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2020). As seen in Chapter 2, crop production has important value-added and employment linkages upstream and downstream from farms, including in fertilizer and chemical input supply, mechanization services, transport, processing, wholesale and retail distribution, and exports. Crop production also provides the majority of the nation’s calorie intake as well as raw material for processed animal feed. However, as Chapter 3 shows, with maize as the one exception, the crop sector itself has not grown in recent years due to decades of underinvestment in agricultural research, limited transport infrastructure, and highly variable prices for export crops. This chapter provides a more detailed picture of the spatial distribution of crop production and production technologies, which is relevant to the discussion in Chapter 18 on regional variations in rural livelihoods.
Farm commercialization: a transformation on hold or in reverse?
Minten, Bart; Fang, Peixun; Naing, Phyo Thandar; Aung, Zin Wai; Win, Hnin Ei. 2024
Minten, Bart; Fang, Peixun; Naing, Phyo Thandar; Aung, Zin Wai; Win, Hnin Ei. 2024
Abstract | Link
When food systems transform, farmers’ interactions with markets change dramatically. With changes from traditional to transitional to modern systems—as defined by Reardon and Minten (2021)— farmers move from mostly subsistence-oriented agriculture with few market interactions toward heavy reliance on spot markets for inputs, outputs, and services, and ultimately to contract farming. Such reliance on markets during these transformation processes has been shown to lead to significant improvements in farm performance and in agricultural households’ welfare.
Food processing: A stalled transformation
Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2024
Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2024
Migration trends and implications
Filipski, Mateusz; Belton, Ben; van Asselt, Joanna; Hein, Aung; Zu, A Myint; Htoo, Kyan; Win, Myat Thida; Thu, Eaindra Theint Theint; Htun, Khun Moe; Ei, Hnin.. 2024
Filipski, Mateusz; Belton, Ben; van Asselt, Joanna; Hein, Aung; Zu, A Myint; Htoo, Kyan; Win, Myat Thida; Thu, Eaindra Theint Theint; Htun, Khun Moe; Ei, Hnin.. 2024
Regional variations in rural livelihoods: Challenges and opportunities
Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz; Lambrecht, Isabel; Fang, Peixun. 2024
Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz; Lambrecht, Isabel; Fang, Peixun. 2024
Livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture: status and recent trends
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. 2024
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. 2024
Abstract | Link
Livestock rearing and fishing have been central components of rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain so today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early 1990s and have grown briskly since then. Poultry and aquaculture commoditization accelerated between 2011 and 2019, stimulated by the demand-side pull of rapid income growth and by foreign and domestic investment in areas such as feed milling and food retail (for example, businesses such as Kentucky Fried Chicken, which opened in Myanmar in 2015). However, despite recent growth, both sectors lag behind those in more developed countries in the region in technological sophistication, scale, and regulation.
Agricultural mechanization: drivers and characteristics
Belton, Ben; Win, Myat Thida; Zhang, Xiaobo; Filipski, Mateusz; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Masias, Ian. 2024
Belton, Ben; Win, Myat Thida; Zhang, Xiaobo; Filipski, Mateusz; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Masias, Ian. 2024
Abstract | Link
Widespread agricultural mechanization is a very recent phenomenon in Myanmar. In 2010, just 0.5 percent of farm households in the Delta used combine harvesters, and only 6 percent used threshers. A study of farm production economics in the country’s main agricultural zones in 2013/14 found that only 1 percent of paddy-cultivating households used combine harvesters. This was attributed to a combination of low wages and surplus labor in rural areas, poor infrastructure, a poor regulatory environment, and a lack of access to long-term capital among farmers.
A historical and regional perspective on Myanmar’s agrifood system
Boughton, Duncan; Haggblade, Steve; Minten, Bart. 2024
Boughton, Duncan; Haggblade, Steve; Minten, Bart. 2024
Abstract | Link
Agriculture and the related input supply, processing, trade, and retail distribution activities that make up national food systems are a major driver of rural economic transformation in low- and middle-income countries (Mellor 2017). As Chapter 2 shows, in addition to directly contributing to rural employment and GDP in Myanmar, the growth of the agrifood system has high multiplier effects on the broader rural economy. Yet in Myanmar, as Warr (2016) argues, lack of agricultural productivity growth combined with dependence on extractive sectors, such as jade, teak, and natural gas, has held back the transformation of the economy.
Income diversification and the rural nonfarm economy
Paudel, Susan; Filipski, Mateusz; Minten, Bart. 2024
Paudel, Susan; Filipski, Mateusz; Minten, Bart. 2024
Dietary quality and nutrition: past progress, current and future challenges
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin. 2024
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin. 2024
Abstract | Link
This is an embargoed publication available October 10, 2024. Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was experiencing a period of rapid economic growth and transformation in the wake of economic and political liberalization. Between 2005 and 2017, average annual growth in real GDP per capita was 7.8 percent, making Myanmar the fastest growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Strong growth was accompanied by a halving of the national poverty rate between 2005 and 2017 from 48.2 to 24.8 percent (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). COVID19 and the economic and political shocks affecting the country since 2021 have led to an economic contraction: 2021 saw an 18 percent drop in real GDP per capita; in 2022, real GDP per capita was estimated to be 15 percent lower than in 2019 (World Bank 2022). The impacts on poverty were even more dire. A high-frequency panel phone survey of mothers and young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone revealed incomes collapsing during the COVID-19 lockdowns and further income losses in the wake of the February 2021 military takeover (Headey et al. 2022). Prices rose dramatically, with the consumer price index rising by 20 percent between July 2021 and July 2022 (MOPF 2022), while food prices rose by 34 percent over the same period and by about 50 percent between December 2021 and December 2022. Nationally, a variety of different poverty indicators suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the population was living in poverty in 2022 —poverty rates similar to those found between 2005 and 2010.
Conclusion: From recovery to renewal of the agrifood system
Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart. 2024
Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart. 2024
Dietary quality and nutrition: past progress, current and future challenges
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin. 2024
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin. 2024
Abstract | Link
This is an embargoed publication available October 10, 2024. Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was experiencing a period of rapid economic growth and transformation in the wake of economic and political liberalization. Between 2005 and 2017, average annual growth in real GDP per capita was 7.8 percent, making Myanmar the fastest growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Strong growth was accompanied by a halving of the national poverty rate between 2005 and 2017 from 48.2 to 24.8 percent (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). COVID19 and the economic and political shocks affecting the country since 2021 have led to an economic contraction: 2021 saw an 18 percent drop in real GDP per capita; in 2022, real GDP per capita was estimated to be 15 percent lower than in 2019 (World Bank 2022). The impacts on poverty were even more dire. A high-frequency panel phone survey of mothers and young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone revealed incomes collapsing during the COVID-19 lockdowns and further income losses in the wake of the February 2021 military takeover (Headey et al. 2022). Prices rose dramatically, with the consumer price index rising by 20 percent between July 2021 and July 2022 (MOPF 2022), while food prices rose by 34 percent over the same period and by about 50 percent between December 2021 and December 2022. Nationally, a variety of different poverty indicators suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the population was living in poverty in 2022 —poverty rates similar to those found between 2005 and 2010.
Women and youth in agriculture
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame; Win, Hnin Ei. 2024
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame; Win, Hnin Ei. 2024
Agricultural value chains: Examples of quiet transformation
Belton, Ben; Cho, Ame; Fang, Peixun; Win, Myat Thida; Mather, David. 2024
Belton, Ben; Cho, Ame; Fang, Peixun; Win, Myat Thida; Mather, David. 2024
The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan. 2024
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan. 2024
Abstract | Link
As countries develop, agrifood systems (AFS) are expected to evolve beyond primary agriculture. The earliest stages of development are typically characterized by subsistence farming; as agricultural productivity rises, farmers begin to supply surplus production to markets, which creates employment opportunities for workers in the off-farm economy. Rising rural incomes generate demand for more diverse products; this leads to more nonfarm activities such as processing, packaging, transporting, and trading. In the early stages of transformation, the agriculture sector serves as an engine of rural—and even national—economic growth. Eventually, urbanization, the nonfarm economy, and nonagricultural incomes play more dominant roles in propelling AFS development, with urban and rural nonfarm consumers creating most of the market demand for agricultural outputs via value chains that connect rural areas to towns and cities. The exact nature of this transformation process varies across countries because of the diverse structure of their economies and the unique growth trajectories of their various agrifood and nonfood subsectors. A focus solely on primary agriculture without an understanding of its linkages to off-farm components of the economy masks the importance of AFS to the overall economy and its potential contribution as a driver of development going forward. In this chapter, we first measure the size, structure, and historical contribution of the AFS to economic growth and transformation in Myanmar. Second, we assess the potential for AFS growth led by productivity gains in different agricultural value chains to contribute to development outcomes in Myanmar using the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023b). We measure AFS using national accounts and employment statistics to either track or simulate growth and employment changes over time. We disaggregate AFS into several value chain groups, which allows the analysis to offer a unique and useful perspective on the drivers of AFS growth and transformation. Finally, we discuss the implications of the recent crises for the future of the AFS and propose both short- and long-term policy recommendations to help steer recovery.
Introduction [in Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities]
Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart. 2024
Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart. 2024
Abstract | Link
A decade of rapid, albeit uneven, progress in Myanmar’s economic development was thrown into reverse by a series of shocks that began with the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The pandemic was followed by the military coup of February 2021 and the global food, fuel, and fertilizer supply crisis spurred by the armed conflict in Ukraine that began a year later. The coup led to a surge in conflict around the country, hampering and often devastating the livelihoods of the population at large while also causing the internal displacement of about 2.3 million people by the end of 2023, adding to those displaced during prior conflicts. The sharp depreciation of Myanmar’s currency since the coup multiplied the inflationary impact of international price increases for fuel, fertilizer, and imported vegetable oils, causing inflation to spiral upward even as employment opportunities withered. By late 2023, over 70 percent of the population was estimated to be in poverty, more than double the 2017 poverty rate of 25 percent.
Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities
Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart. 2024
Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart. 2024
Abstract | Link
Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization Service Providers – July 2024 survey round
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
Agricultural mechanization service providers (MSPs) are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. These operations are essential for food production and farm income. MSPs are capital-intensive operations. The economic viability of these businesses is highly sensitive to (1) capacity utilization, which generates the cash flow needed to repay equipment loans; (2) prices of imported capital goods, including machines, equipment, and fuels; and (3) availability of machine operators, among others. Hence, the operations of MSPs are sensitive to restrictions on mobility and trade.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: December 2021–June 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis. 2024
Abstract | Link
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of households and food vendors (fielded from December 2021 until June 2024) in rural and urban areas and in all states/regions of Myanmar. Key Findings Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, diet costs rose steadily by 40 and 41 percent for healthy and common diet costs, respectively. The median price of rice—the major staple—increased by 54 percent between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024 and was the main driver of the 41 percent increase in the cost of the common diet. The most conflict-affected states suffered more from food price inflation. Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, common diet costs increased by 81 percent in Rakhine, 61 percent in Chin, and 48 percent in Kachin. In the second quarter of 2024, both healthy and common diet costs were highest in Rakhine followed by Chin. Over the full period of surveys (December 2021–June 2024), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 121 percent and the common diet by 131 percent; rice and onion prices more than tripled; pulse, chicken, leafy green, and banana prices at least doubled; and all other food prices increased by at least 50 percent. Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, purchasing power of daily urban construction wages relative to healthy and common diet costs declined by about 14 percent. The purchasing power of rural agricultural wages to healthy and common diet costs fell by about 4 percent. Adjusted for the cost of one kilogram of rice, urban construction wages fell by 25 percent and rural agricultural wages fell by 14 percent. Food costs outpaced wages, particularly in urban areas, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar. However, nominal wages rose at a faster pace between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022 and 2023, slowing the pace of declining real wages.
Tracking Maternal and Child Anthropometric Outcomes, Early Childhood Development, Maternal Mental Health and Household Welfare in urban Yangon and rural Ayeyarwady: A Description of the 11th Round of The Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) conducted in October-November 2023
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
Myanmar's population has become increasingly at risk of malnutrition due to political turmoil, armed conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic disruptions, price fluctuations, and erratic weather patterns (MAPSA 2024; MAPSA 2023). However, given the fragile situation with respect to conflict, crime and poor governance, conducting face-to-face data collection is challenging (Lambrecht et al. 2023; Boughton et al. 2023), and there is a particular scarcity of anthropometric data since this cannot be collected via phone surveys. To redress this knowledge gap, IFPRI partnered with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA)- Myanmar to conduct an in-person survey that revisited households previously surveyed in 2020-2021 by phone. This Rural-Urban Food Security interviewed mothers or caregivers of young children and collected anthropometric measurements in-person between October – November 2023. Out of approximately 1,500 mothers who participated in at least one round of the previous phone survey, we successfully followed up with 702 mother-child pairs located mainly in peri-urban Yangon, with a small subset of households in rural Ayeyarwady. This paper describes the implementation of this survey and the reports key results from the questionnaire in order to provide readers with a clear understanding of the sample and its key socioeconomic characteristics, as well as comparability to two national surveys with representative Yangon sub-samples: the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) conducted in 2023 and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) conducted in 2015-16. Results of this comparison suggest that the RUFSS sample of caregivers (mostly mothers) is broadly comparable to the DHS in terms of education levels. Thus, while the RUFSS sample should not be interrupted as representative of mothers of young children in Yangon or their households – because we oversample peri-urban households – it nevertheless appears to be broadly comparable to the DHS in terms of caregiver education levels, which would one not expect to change rapidly over 2015-16 to 2023.
Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Monsoon Season 2024: Agricultural input markets, credit and extension services
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the monsoon season 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 4,663 crop farmers undertaken in January 22 to March 7, 2024. Key Findings Fertilizer use rates and profitability for rice production reached their highest levels since before the coup during the 2023 monsoon season, driven primarily by higher paddy prices. Application rates for monsoon season paddy increased to 66 kg/acre from 54 kg/acre in the previous monsoon. Urea application increased from 33 kg/acre to 38 kg/acre, and non-urea fertilizers (mainly compound 15-15-15) increased from 21 kg/acre to 28 kg/acre. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.3 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 2.0 at farmer reported urea prices. These ratios imply a return on investment in urea fertilizer for the farmer of 130 percent at input dealer prices and 100 percent at average famer-reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm. Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters was similar in monsoon 2023 compared to a year earlier, but costs increased dramatically. Plowing with a four-wheel tractor, for example, increased by 42 percent to 60,000 MMK/acre. The cost of combine harvesting averaged 110,000 MMK/acre. Timeliness of access was likely reduced as fuel shortages increased, especially in conflict areas. The share of farmers using saved paddy seed increased from 56 percent to 61 percent nationally for use in the 2023 monsoon season compared to a year before. There were important differences across states and regions. The share of farmers purchasing seed in conflict areas fell more than the national average; by 11 percentage points in Mandalay, 7 percentage points in Rakhine, 6 percentage points in Tanintharyi, and 5 percentage points in Mon State. Eighty-four percent of farms hired labor in the 2023 monsoon season, slightly higher than the previous monsoon season. Male wages rose to 8,800 MMK/day in the 2023 monsoon season from almost 7,400 MMK/day in the previous monsoon, an increase of 19 percent. Despite large nominal increases, real wages for men and women nevertheless fell as the cost of a typical daily diet which rose 37 percent over the period February 2023 to March 2024. Access to internet or mobile phone services increased by 3 percentage points from 15 percent to 18 percent, and access to private sector services increased by almost 3 percentage points from 18.0 percent to 20.6 percent. Increases in private extension access favored producers of cash crops, notably betel leaves, cotton, rice and maize. Internet or mobile phone services were sought out by producers of cotton, rice, betel leaves and pulses, again primarily cash crops.
Stunting and wasting rates among pre-school age children in Yangon and Ayeyarwady, October–November 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 and the military takeover of the democratically elected government in early 2021 has largely prevented the implementation of in-person surveys necessary for the collection of anthropometric data. To redress this knowledge gap, we implemented an in-person survey of mothers (caregivers) and young children in urban and peri-urban Yangon and rural Ayeyarwady in October and November 2023. This in-person 11th round of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) involved data collection on a wide range of socioeconomic indicators, but also child anthropometric outcomes such as length and weight. In this study, we report results for height-for-age z scores (HAZ) and weight-for-height z scores (WHZ) relative to international reference standards, as well as stunting (HAZ < -2) and wasting (WHZ < -2). Because of high and rising rates of overweight/obesity among adults in the RUFSS survey, we also examined the number of children were overweight (WHZ > +2) and mildly overweight (+1
Oilseed farming in Myanmar: An analysis of practice, productivity, and profitability: Assessment of the 2023 monsoon
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
We have analyzed oilseed production patterns, productivity, and profitability for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 802 oilseed producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country.
Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers in Yangon and Ayeyarwady, October–November 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
In this research note, we report results on the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers of young children using data collected in Yangon and Ayeyarwady as part of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS). This in-person study, conducted between October–November 2023, surveyed mothers who were registered from antenatal clinics in peri-urban Yangon in early 2020. In this latest survey round, we revisited this sample of mother-child pairs to gather anthropometric data (along with other nutrition-relevant indicators). We successfully collected anthropometric data for 646 mothers.
Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Monsoon 2023): Farming environment and farm commercialization
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
We have analyzed the farming environment and farm commercialization situation for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed almost 4,400 crop producers in the monsoon, distributed across all states/regions of the country.
Rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 monsoon
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
We have analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 2,840 rice producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal:
National rice productivity exhibited an average increase of 7 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year, reversing the decline witnessed in the 2022 monsoon. This year's heightened productivity primarily stems from increased input usage (particularly fertilizer), greater labor inputs (with more farmers adopting transplanting), and reduced occurrences of natural shocks, notably droughts.
The Ayeyarwady region, the country's principal rice-producing area, experienced an 11 percent increase in rice productivity. Conversely, rice yields remained low in Kayah and Chin, two states affected by severe conflict. The highest yields, along with notable increases over the past three years, are observed in Nay Pyi Taw.
Significant changes in input costs for rice cultivation were observed between the two seasons: 3.1 Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, decreased by 16 percent. 3.2 Mechanization costs surged by a notable 42 percent, which is concerning, especially in light of escalating rural labor scarcity. Particularly pronounced increases in mechanization costs were noted in coastal areas where fuel prices were high, or fuel was not available at all.
Substantial changes in technology adoption and input utilization compared to the previous monsoon were noted: 4.1 Fertilizer use on rice increased by 20 percent. 4.2 Use of self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market - increased by 6 percentage points compared to last monsoon, and 17 percentage points compared to 2020. 4.3 Transplanting increased by 5 percentage points while broadcasting declined by 7 percentage points. 4.4 The use of combine harvesters on rice was 1 percentage point lower compared to last year but was 12 percentage points lower than in 2020.
Thirty percent of paddy farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with floods (reported by seven percent of farmers) and droughts (reported by five percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. When affected, paddy yields decreased by 32 and 51 percent, respectively. Incidences of pests, diseases, and weeds have the highest frequency overall (13 percent).
Substantial changes in input usage and technology adoption were observed in paddy cultivation within coastal areas (Rakhine and Tanintharyi), seemingly linked to insecurity, mobility constraints, and fuel accessibility issues: 6.1 Fertilizer use declined by one-third. 6.2 The utilization of combine harvesters plummeted by 26 percentage points.
Paddy prices at the farm level surged by 64 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK.
Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – profits from rice farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by 43 percent compared to the previous year. While nominal profits doubled since the previous monsoon, high price inflation tempered the increase in real profits.
The paddy sector has proven resilient in 2023, with improved pricing incentivizing farmers to intensify production through increased usage of chemical fertilizers and labor inputs.
“It doesn’t matter at all—we are family”: Titling and joint property rights in Myanmar
Lambrecht, Isabel Brigitte; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Win, Hnin Ei; Mahrt, Kristi; Win, Khin Zin. 2024
Lambrecht, Isabel Brigitte; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Win, Hnin Ei; Mahrt, Kristi; Win, Khin Zin. 2024
Abstract | Link
Many policy makers and academics striving for more gender equality consider joint property rights as preferable over sole rights, since the latter often discriminate against women. Several governments in low-, middle- and high-income countries have therefore imposed joint rights through modifications of statutory law or mandatory joint property registration. We first discuss a general theoretical framework of determinants of property rights with a focus on jointness and the interplay between statutory law, customary law and religious norms, as well as the importance of gendered customs, norms and perceptions around household, family and community arrangements. We then also relate this specifically to the case of Myanmar—based on literature and original qualitative data collected with men and women across all four agro-ecological zones in rural Myanmar. We find equal customary and statutory joint property rights regime upon marriage where inheritance rights are not different for men and women, but only one name is generally recorded on land use certificates. A strong sense of “togetherness”, including a custom of income pooling and rare occurrence of divorce, limits the rationale of marital partners to exercise rights solely rather than jointly. Nevertheless, which household members’ name is on a document is important for accessing credit or engaging with officials and government authorities, and strong patriarchal norms guide official and administrative procedures. Whereas short-term impacts of sole land titling seem limited, the extent to which sole or joint titling might affect gender equality in the longer term remains a topic of future research.
Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets – March 2024 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
This research note presents the results of 26 rounds of interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas throughout Myanmar conducted between June 2020 and March 2024. The purpose of the surveys is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. The focus of this research note is on changes in food prices and the cost of common and healthy diets.
Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Round Six: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
The sixth round of the MHWS was carried out between October 12, 2022, and December 30, 2022. In the fourth round, 12,924 households responded to the survey. Of those households, 4831 households were interviewed in the first, second, third and fourth round. Another 1,924 households were interviewed in Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4 only. Some 127 households rejoined the sample after being interviewed in Round 1 and Round 3. Finally, 3,724 households were added in Round 4 to replace the 2,928 households that dropped out of the sample after the third round. To replace the households that dropped out of the survey, the survey team called 6,641 new households. The households were selected randomly from the phone database, in the same townships as the attrition households, and retained if they had similar characteristics to the attrition households in terms of urban/rural, gender, farm and low education. If the survey team could not meet those criteria, they called households with similar characteristics from the same state/region. As many as 56 percent of new households called responded to the survey in Round 4, compared to only 31 percent of new households in Round 3. A big issue among both old and new respondents continues to be non-response, such as phones were not answered, powered off, or out-of-service, 39.5 percent of calls. For previous respondents, 36 percent of them did not respond to their phones, for any of those reasons, hence the high degree of attrition. Meanwhile, the refusal rate of new households remained low at 3 percent in Round 4 compared to 6 percent in Round 3. It is likely that phone connection and power outages were the main reason that phones were not answered- they were not on. Blackouts not only prevented many households from charging their phones, but also interrupted interviews, if the power was cut-off during the call.
Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
The fifth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS)–a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,953 households–was implemented between March, 2023 and June, 2023. Of those households, 3,981 households were interviewed in Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, and Round 5, all the previous survey rounds. Another 1,673 households were interviewed in Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, and Round 5 only. The remaining 5,732 households participated in at least one other round of MHWS. Finally, 3,256 new households that had never participated in any other rounds were added in Round 5 to replace the households that dropped out of the sample after the fourth round.
Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
This study explores the transformation of Myanmar’s rice value chain (VC) over a period of liberalization, reform, and infrastructure expansion from 2013 to 2019, and over a period of multiple crises from 2020 to 2022 including a military coup and widespread conflict. We analyze modernization over these periods at different levels of the VC, including upstream (farms), midstream (mills), and downstream (rice vendors). We rely upon unique data from large-scale phone surveys collected at different segments of the rice value chain – including farm and post-farmgate – complemented with insights from key informant interviews, and secondary data. The major findings are the following:
Livelihoods and Welfare: Findings from the sixth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (June – November 2023)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Shocks and coping: Findings from the sixth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (June – November 2023)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Agricultural service delivery during turmoil: The state of agricultural extension and crop advisory services in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Migration Assessment: Note on Dataset
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
The population of Myanmar is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to political instability, armed conflict, economic disruptions, price volatility, and climatic shocks. Migration has emerged as one of the few viable pathways to potentially improve household welfare amid these challenges. However, whether migration can indeed deliver some relief depends on the ability of migrants to find safe, well-paid jobs despite financial barriers and other challenges. The Myanmar Migrant Assessment (MMA) interviewed a sub-sample of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), who either have a household member who has migrated or attempted to migrate in the previous 10 years (since 2013) or has relocated their entire household since February 2021, to better understand the process and consequences of migration. The survey interviewed 4,296 households by phone between June 8 – July 14, 2023. In this note, we provide details on data collection and sample design for the MMA as well as give an overview of the survey modules.
Those who leave and those who stay: Individual migration in Myanmar during a time of crisis
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Resilience pathways: Understanding remittance trends in post-coup Myanmar
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Household migration during a time of crisis: Patterns and outcomes in Myanmar
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
The state of food security and Nutrition in Myanmar 2022-23: Findings from six rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity. 2024
Abstract | Link
This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using 6 rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to November 2023. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022-23. More than 3 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-November 2023. Hunger was highest in Chin (8.7 percent) and Tanintharyi (7.0 percent). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 15.9 percent in October-December 2022 and remained high at 14.4 percent in September-November 2023. The shares in September-November 2023 were highest in Chin (38.2 percent), Kayah (22.4 percent), and Magway (20 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 30.9 percent over December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2022, with an increase of 5.9 percentage points in the past one year. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to September-November 2023 (12.1 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 8.4 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. 34.5 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and nearly a quarter (23.6 percent) of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.
Can phone surveys be representative in low- and middle-income countries? An application to Myanmar
Lambrecht, Isabel; Van Asselt, Joanna; Headey, Derek D.; Minten, Bart; Meza, Patrick; Sabai, Moe; Sun, Thet Su; Ei Win, Hnin. 2023
Lambrecht, Isabel; Van Asselt, Joanna; Headey, Derek D.; Minten, Bart; Meza, Patrick; Sabai, Moe; Sun, Thet Su; Ei Win, Hnin. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
For decades, in-person data collection has been the standard modality for nationally and sub-nationally representative socio-economic survey data in low- and middle-income countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic rendered in-person surveys impossible and unethical, the urgent need for rapid monitoring necessitated researchers and statistical agencies to turn to phone surveys. However, apart from pandemic-related factors, a variety of other reasons can render large segments of a population inaccessible for in-person surveys, including political instability, climatic shocks, and remoteness. Such circumstances currently prevail in Myanmar, a country facing civil conflict and political instability since the February 2021 military takeover. Moreover, Myanmar routinely experiences extreme weather events and is characterized by numerous inaccessible and remote regions due to its mountainous geography. We describe a novel approach to sample design and statistical weighting that has been successfully applied in Myanmar to obtain nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey data. We use quota sampling and entropy weighting to obtain a better geographical distribution compared to recent in-person survey efforts, including reaching respondents in areas of active conflict. Moreover, we minimize biases towards certain household and respondent characteristics that are usually present in phone surveys, for example towards well-educated or wealthy households, or towards men or household heads as respondents. Finally, due to the rapidly changing political and economic situation in Myanmar in 2022, the need for frequent and swift monitoring was critical. We carried out our phone survey over four quarters in 2022, interviewing more than 12,000 respondents in less than three months each survey. A survey of this scale and pace, though generally of much shorter duration than in-person interviews, could only be possible on the phone. Our study proves the feasibility of collecting nationally and sub nationally representative phone survey data using a non-representative sample frame, which is critical for rapid monitoring in any volatile economy.
Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (944.5 KB)
Myanmar has experienced a sequence of dire crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Yet, through these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the reasons underlying this apparent paradox and our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders. Strengthening the resilience of AVCs to shocks has important implications for welfare in developing countries and is increasingly drawing attention from policymakers and development partners. Using data from several sources including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers, and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders have been critical to the resilience of the maize value chain in Myanmar during this turbulent period. Maize traders performed three key functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and lending cash, thereby injecting much needed liquidity at times of incredible uncertainty, disruptions in the banking sector, and rising input prices.
Small fish consumption in rural Myanmar
Rizaldo, Quennie Vi; Khaing, Wae Win; Belton, Ben. 2023
Rizaldo, Quennie Vi; Khaing, Wae Win; Belton, Ben. 2023
Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) dry season 2023: Agricultural input markets, credit and extension services
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (966.6 KB)
This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the post-monsoon (dry season) 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 5001 crop farmers undertaken in June – July 2023. Most farmer input use decisions were taken prior to damage inflicted by Cyclone Mocha.
Key findings
• Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas.
• In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality.
• Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm.
• Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas.
• Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access.
• The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled.
Recommendations
• Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff.
• The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication.
• As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.
Key findings
• Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas.
• In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality.
• Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm.
• Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas.
• Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access.
• The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled.
Recommendations
• Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff.
• The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication.
• As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2023 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (798.2 KB)
In August 2023, we surveyed 388 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.
Key findings
• Patterns of reported business disruptions show substantial improvements compared to a year ago, but limited changes since March 2023. Access to electricity remained the most common disruption and was reported to be the biggest challenge by more than half of the sample. Fuel cost, fuel access, and transportation costs were also common disruptions although they are far less common than in August 2022.
• Larger mills mostly use electricity and are therefore most impacted by the persistent electrical supply issues. Yet some have expanded their power sources in the past three years by investing in electricity generators powered by husks or fuel.
• Despite the challenges, milling throughput in 2023 is similar to 2022. However, paddy and rice storage volumes are significantly lower this year, while conditional average amount of credit provided to farmers increased significantly during the 2023 monsoon season.
• Paddy and rice prices continued their rapid upward trajectory that began in mid-2022 and in August were 80 percent higher than one year prior and 2.5 times the price from 2021. The local Myanmar price changes are largely driven by global rice markets and foreign exchange rates.
Looking forward
• Recent policies to keep consumer rice prices low – including efforts to control rice prices and to limit export licensing – along with erratic foreign exchange policies can lead to increased price volatility and uncertainty for farmers, traders, millers, and exporters. If domestic paddy and rice prices fall because of these interventions, millers and farmers are less likely to recover investment costs, pay off debts, and make profits for further investment in next year’s productions.
Key findings
• Patterns of reported business disruptions show substantial improvements compared to a year ago, but limited changes since March 2023. Access to electricity remained the most common disruption and was reported to be the biggest challenge by more than half of the sample. Fuel cost, fuel access, and transportation costs were also common disruptions although they are far less common than in August 2022.
• Larger mills mostly use electricity and are therefore most impacted by the persistent electrical supply issues. Yet some have expanded their power sources in the past three years by investing in electricity generators powered by husks or fuel.
• Despite the challenges, milling throughput in 2023 is similar to 2022. However, paddy and rice storage volumes are significantly lower this year, while conditional average amount of credit provided to farmers increased significantly during the 2023 monsoon season.
• Paddy and rice prices continued their rapid upward trajectory that began in mid-2022 and in August were 80 percent higher than one year prior and 2.5 times the price from 2021. The local Myanmar price changes are largely driven by global rice markets and foreign exchange rates.
Looking forward
• Recent policies to keep consumer rice prices low – including efforts to control rice prices and to limit export licensing – along with erratic foreign exchange policies can lead to increased price volatility and uncertainty for farmers, traders, millers, and exporters. If domestic paddy and rice prices fall because of these interventions, millers and farmers are less likely to recover investment costs, pay off debts, and make profits for further investment in next year’s productions.
Monitoring the agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020–August 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (651.4 KB)
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on largescale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until August 2023) and households (fielded in 5 periods in 2022 and 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar.
Key Findings
Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent.
After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high.
Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023.
Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.
The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages.
Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas.
Recommended Actions
Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.
As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.
Key Findings
Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent.
After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high.
Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023.
Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.
The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages.
Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas.
Recommended Actions
Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.
As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.
The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar 2022-23: Findings from five rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.6 MB)
This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using 5 rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to June 2023. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022-23. More than 3 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in April-June 2023. Hunger was highest in Chin (10.1 percent), Rakhine (7.6 percent), and Kayin (5.9 percent). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 17.7 percent in April-June 2023. The shares in April-June were highest in Chin (48.4 percent), Kayah (27 percent), and Kachin (22 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 27.1 percent over the same period. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to April-June 2022 (9.1 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 3.8 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. 40 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and nearly a quarter (24.9 percent) of children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.
Empowering rural women through gender and nutrition education amid the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from Myanmar's Central Dry Zone
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai. 2023
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The COVID-19 pandemic had negative impacts on nutrition and strained intrahousehold relations, particularly among poorer households. Social protection programs intended to mitigate these impacts mainly operated through handing out cash or in-kind items to vulnerable households. Yet social and behavior change communication (SBCC) intervention on gender and nutrition could be another option. We assess the impact of a nutrition and gender SBCC intervention implemented as a cluster-randomized controlled trial in 30 villages in Myanmar's Central Dry Zone during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We rely on data from a baseline survey implemented in February 2020 and a phone survey implemented in February–March 2021. Two indicators of women's empowerment―input in productive decisions and access to and input in decisions over credit―improved, indicating that SBCC interventions can contribute to changing gendered perceptions and behaviors. Some empowerment indicators did not change, indicating it may take more time to change deeply ingrained gender norms—including tolerance toward intimate partner violence. In treatment villages, women's dietary diversity scores were higher by half a food group out of 10. More women in treatment villages consumed nuts, milk, meat or fish, and vitamin A–rich foods daily than in control villages.
Vulnerability and welfare: Findings from the fifth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (March – June 2023)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (2.2 MB)
The fifth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between March and June 2023. It follows from four rounds that were carried out quarterly beginning in December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the fifth round related to livelihoods, shocks, asset and income poverty, and coping strategies.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2023 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (941.3 KB)
To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023.
Key Findings
• Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022.
• Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022.
• The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs.
• Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs.
• More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high.
• The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels.
Looking Forward
• Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production.
• However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons.
• More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.
Key Findings
• Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022.
• Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022.
• The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs.
• Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs.
• More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high.
• The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels.
Looking Forward
• Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production.
• However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons.
• More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.
Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 dry season
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (600.5 KB)
Key Findings
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2022 and 2023, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of June 26th to July 25th, 2023. The survey covered plots of 659 rice paddy producers. It is found that:
• Prices of inputs used in paddy production – fertilizer, labor, mechanization – increased between these two growing seasons by between 13 and 21 percent, on average. On the other hand, paddy prices at the farm increased by 68 percent.
• Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the dry season of 2023 increased by 41 percent compared to the dry season of 2022. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 70 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased therefore much less.
• Rice farmers increased input expenditures on paddy production by 50 percent compared to last year. However, larger farmers invested more and doubled input expenditures, likely attracted by the increased profits in paddy farming.
• Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2023 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly larger (+1.2 percent) than in the previous dry season. Substantial declines are noted in the coastal areas (-29 percent) and the Dry Zone (-5 percent), possibly linked to impacts of cyclone Mocha.
• Thirteen percent of all crop farmers reported to have been affected by the cyclone Mocha and 3 percent of the crop farmers indicated that they lost their whole dry season harvest. Almost half of the affected farmers reported that the next monsoon season would not proceed as normal, likely affecting the production of rice – and other crops – in those areas during the next monsoon season.
Recommended Actions
• As paddy prices have gone up significantly, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial.
• The cyclone Mocha has destroyed harvests of farmers in Rakhine and part of the Dry Zone. As effects of the devastation of the cyclone will continue to be felt during the monsoon of 2023, further assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from these effects is called for.
STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM RESEARCH NOTE 99
SEPTEMBER 2023
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2022 and 2023, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of June 26th to July 25th, 2023. The survey covered plots of 659 rice paddy producers. It is found that:
• Prices of inputs used in paddy production – fertilizer, labor, mechanization – increased between these two growing seasons by between 13 and 21 percent, on average. On the other hand, paddy prices at the farm increased by 68 percent.
• Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the dry season of 2023 increased by 41 percent compared to the dry season of 2022. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 70 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased therefore much less.
• Rice farmers increased input expenditures on paddy production by 50 percent compared to last year. However, larger farmers invested more and doubled input expenditures, likely attracted by the increased profits in paddy farming.
• Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2023 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly larger (+1.2 percent) than in the previous dry season. Substantial declines are noted in the coastal areas (-29 percent) and the Dry Zone (-5 percent), possibly linked to impacts of cyclone Mocha.
• Thirteen percent of all crop farmers reported to have been affected by the cyclone Mocha and 3 percent of the crop farmers indicated that they lost their whole dry season harvest. Almost half of the affected farmers reported that the next monsoon season would not proceed as normal, likely affecting the production of rice – and other crops – in those areas during the next monsoon season.
Recommended Actions
• As paddy prices have gone up significantly, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial.
• The cyclone Mocha has destroyed harvests of farmers in Rakhine and part of the Dry Zone. As effects of the devastation of the cyclone will continue to be felt during the monsoon of 2023, further assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from these effects is called for.
STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM RESEARCH NOTE 99
SEPTEMBER 2023
Myanmar agricultural performance survey (dry season 2023): Farm commercialization
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.1 MB)
Key Findings
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2023, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,001 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period June – July 2023. It is found that:
The security situation is worrisome for farmers. Almost a quarter of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview.
Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2023 dry season period. However, it was difficult to access labor for 17 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.
Input prices during the dry season of 2023 increased compared to the same period in 2022 by 14 percent for urea, 19 percent for mechanization, and 15 and 22 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.
Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 69 percent. Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. In the case of pulses, black gram increased by 21 percent and green gram by 19 percent. In the case of oilseeds, sesame increased by 38 percent and groundnut by 33 percent.
The high price increases in the case of paddy and oilseeds – higher than input costs – reflects increased profitability for these farmers. However, that is not the case of these other crops.
Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Farms affected by cyclone Mocha and farms in insecure areas however reported relatively more crop sales income decreases than other farmers.
Recommended Actions
The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.
As cyclone Mocha has reduced, among others, incomes of a large number of farmers in Rakhine and the Dry Zone, assistance of these cyclone-affected farmers is needed.
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2023, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,001 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period June – July 2023. It is found that:
The security situation is worrisome for farmers. Almost a quarter of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview.
Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2023 dry season period. However, it was difficult to access labor for 17 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.
Input prices during the dry season of 2023 increased compared to the same period in 2022 by 14 percent for urea, 19 percent for mechanization, and 15 and 22 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.
Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 69 percent. Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. In the case of pulses, black gram increased by 21 percent and green gram by 19 percent. In the case of oilseeds, sesame increased by 38 percent and groundnut by 33 percent.
The high price increases in the case of paddy and oilseeds – higher than input costs – reflects increased profitability for these farmers. However, that is not the case of these other crops.
Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Farms affected by cyclone Mocha and farms in insecure areas however reported relatively more crop sales income decreases than other farmers.
Recommended Actions
The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.
As cyclone Mocha has reduced, among others, incomes of a large number of farmers in Rakhine and the Dry Zone, assistance of these cyclone-affected farmers is needed.
The continuous rise - during economic growth, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and conflict - in the adoption of labor-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar: Evidence and implications
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (2.1 MB)
After decades of isolationism and economic stagnation, Myanmar opened its economy in the beginning of the 2010s, leading to rapid economic growth (Myanmar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was almost 50 percent larger in 2020 than in 2011). But the COVID-19 health crisis that started in 2020 and a military coup in the beginning of 2021 – and the subsequent increase in conflicts, forced displacements, and migration – dramatically reversed that outlook, with Myanmar’s GDP in 2022 estimated to be 13 percent smaller than three years earlier. The agricultural sector also changed accordingly during this period.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2023 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (500 KB)
A phone survey was conducted in July 2023 to understand the effects of political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs) that are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, which is the 11th in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.
Livelihood resilience and the agrifood system in Myanmar: Implications for agriculture and a rural development strategy in a time of crisis
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (811.1 KB)
Myanmar’s agrifood system has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple crises—COVID 19, the military coup, economic mismanagement, global price instability, and widespread conflict—with respect to production and exports. Household welfare has not been resilient, however. High rates of inflation, especially food price inflation, have resulted in dietary degradation across all house hold groups, especially those dependent on casual wage labor. Among household members, young children experience the highest rates of inadequate dietary quality. Expanded social protection to improve access to better-quality diets for vulnerable households and individuals is therefore needed. Beyond the current political crisis, increased public and private investment in a more efficient and dynamic agrifood system should be a high priority. This will help drive down poverty rates and ensure access to healthy diets in the near term, while laying the foundation for sustained growth and struc tural transformation of the economy.
Double jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'état and poverty in Myanmar
Boughton, Duncan; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame; Diao, Xinshen; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joey; Masias, Ian; Belton, Ben; Aung, Nilar; San, Cho Cho. 2023
Boughton, Duncan; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame; Diao, Xinshen; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joey; Masias, Ian; Belton, Ben; Aung, Nilar; San, Cho Cho. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Myanmar experienced multiple COVID shocks as well as a military takeover in February 2021. Impacts on household poverty remain uncertain, however, because large-scale in-person surveys were impossible during the pandemic and heightened internal conflict. We use ex ante simulation models and phone survey evidence to estimate the poverty effects of these shocks and identify factors correlated with them. While each approach has limitations, and cannot explicitly validate each other, they both indicate rising rural and urban poverty and capital-depleting coping mechanisms. Wider use of simulation modeling could help mobilize social protection faster than waiting for survey results in emergencies.
Food systems transformation, animal-source foods consumption, inequality, and nutrition in Myanmar
Scott, Jessica M.; Belton, Ben; Mahrt, Kristi; Thilsted, Shakuntala H.; Bogard, Jessica R. . 2023
Scott, Jessica M.; Belton, Ben; Mahrt, Kristi; Thilsted, Shakuntala H.; Bogard, Jessica R. . 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This study traces the consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) during a period of rapid economic change and food system transformation in Myanmar. We use data from two nationally representative consumption surveys conducted in 2010 and 2015 and food composition tables to estimate the contributions of ASF to estimated average requirements (EARs) of key nutrients among population subgroups differentiated by geography and economic status. We find: (1) Little change in the average quantity of ASF consumed per individual, but substantial changes in the composition of the ASF consumed. (2) Increasing rural–urban and income-linked inequality in quantities of ASF and associated nutrients consumed. (3) Declines in the adequacy of intakes of five out of eight micronutrients (calcium, iron, zinc, thiamine, vitamin B12) and small increases in two (selenium and vitamin A), due to the changing composition of ASF; most importantly, reductions in the supply of diverse aquatic foods from capture fisheries and increasing availability of intensively reared chicken. (4) Elevated levels of ASF-derived total fat and sodium consumption among better-off consumers, suggesting an emerging triple burden of malnutrition. We review the implications of these results for food security, nutrition-sensitive policies and interventions beyond Myanmar.
Myanmar’s livestock sector: An overview of production and consumption in 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (955.6 KB)
The poultry and pig production subsectors are facing significant financial stress, primarily due to a combination of increasing production costs and declining consumer demand. Among the challenges reported by livestock raisers, the most frequent ones were sickness or death of animals, followed closely by high input prices. The cost of production for poultry and swine doubled over a two-year period, largely driven by rising feed and other input costs. Specifically, the price of 50 kg of broiler chicken feed increased by 61 percent between 2021 and 2022, while the price of 30 kg of pig feed increased by 51 percent during the same period. These significant cost increases have led to a notable decrease in livestock income in real terms. Moreover, the triple crisis has affected consumption patterns, with households reducing their expenditure on food, particularly animal-sourced food. As a result, livestock consumption has also decreased, adding to the challenges faced by the livestock industry.
In our sample, we found that 44 percent of households were involved in livestock raising, with 33 percent of households earning income from this activity. However, it's concerning that 18 percent of these households had to resort to selling livestock as a coping strategy to meet their daily needs rather than as a deliberate business decision.
This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Myanmar livestock sector during the period from September 2021 to August 2022. It delves into various aspects, starting with livestock production, examining the challenges faced by farmers, production costs, and income. Additionally, the study analyzes the trends in animal-sourced food consumption in Myanmar. Finally, the paper discusses the critical issues and challenges that the sector is likely to encounter and proposes several recommended actions.
In our sample, we found that 44 percent of households were involved in livestock raising, with 33 percent of households earning income from this activity. However, it's concerning that 18 percent of these households had to resort to selling livestock as a coping strategy to meet their daily needs rather than as a deliberate business decision.
This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Myanmar livestock sector during the period from September 2021 to August 2022. It delves into various aspects, starting with livestock production, examining the challenges faced by farmers, production costs, and income. Additionally, the study analyzes the trends in animal-sourced food consumption in Myanmar. Finally, the paper discusses the critical issues and challenges that the sector is likely to encounter and proposes several recommended actions.
Gender gaps in land rights: Explaining different measures and why households differ in Myanmar
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Win, Hnin Ei; Win, Khin Zin . 2023
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Win, Hnin Ei; Win, Khin Zin . 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Measuring and understanding gender differences in property rights is key to informing policy decisions and guiding investments aimed at fostering gender equality. However, there are a myriad ways of assessing property rights. Firstly, we assess which indicators to use and why it matters, focusing on rural Myanmar. Myanmar provides an interesting setting, as a large part of the population customarily follows joint property rights in marriage and upon dissolution of marriage and inheritance. However, documented property rights are in the household head's name – usually a male household member. We find that capturing de facto transfer rights is essential, but understanding discrepancies between reported transfer rights and documented rights will be key to policymakers. Capturing agricultural decision-making should remain a priority for agricultural projects. Second, we perform household- and intra-household level analyses to explore why we find joint land rights in some, but not all, households; and why some household members have less land rights than others. A common property rights regime positively reinforces women's land rights, but incompletely so. Within households, a person's role in the household, age, and key life cycle events such as parenthood and marriage are key determinants of having land rights.
Pulses sector assessment: Pre- and post-monsoon 2021 and 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (783.8 KB)
The pulse sector in Myanmar has emerged as a crucial income source for farmers during the triple crisis, driven by increased export demand and domestic consumption, as well as reduced production costs and irrigation requirements. However, pulse growers still face several challenges, including escalating fertilizer prices, conflict, border closures, and inadequate government support in terms of credit and extension services. This working paper focuses on assessing the performance and competitiveness of the pulse sector during the pre/post monsoon growing seasons of 2021 and 2022. The analysis is based on recall data obtained from the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 2022 and September 2022.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2023 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (809.6 KB)
In March 2023, we interviewed more than 430 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain.
Key findings
High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.
Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.
Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.
Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.
Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.
Key findings
High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.
Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.
Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.
Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.
Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.
Urban proximity, conflict, and agricultural development: Evidence from Myanmar
Steinhübel, Linda; Minten, Bart. Washington, DC 2023
Steinhübel, Linda; Minten, Bart. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
Urbanization and violent conflict have been two global trends gaining more and more momentum in recent years. This has important implications for agricultural development, which unfortunately are still not well understood. Urban proximity is generally associated with agricultural intensification and improved market participation, while farming systems in remote areas are characterized by larger shares of subsistence production. Such differences along the remoteness gradient likely also play a role in how conflict exposure affects agricultural production. That is, we must assume that the effect of conflict on agricultural development is location-dependent—a fact that is generally neglected in empirical analysis. We address this gap by drawing from a unique nationally representative data set of 2,292 paddy farmers in Myanmar and estimating the effect of conflict exposure and travel times on agricultural production during the monsoon season of 2021. By applying multivariate additive models, we allow for nonlinear and interacted effects of conflict exposure and urban proximity, thereby explicitly exploring spatial variation in the effect of conflict exposure. We find strong positive effects of urban proximity on paddy rice intensification and sales, while conflict exposure has disproportionately negative effects in direct proximity to urban centers and very remote areas. For agricultural development—and smallholder incomes in general—this means that productive areas, on the one hand, and the poorest areas of the country, on the other hand, are especially affected by conflict.
Myanmar’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan; Ellis, Mia. Washington, DC 2023
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan; Ellis, Mia. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
Myanmar initiated economic and political reforms in 2011, ushering in a period of rapid economic transformation. The country experienced strong annual average economic growth of close to 7 percent between 2011 and 2019. The rural economy and the agriculture sector were also transforming, characterized by accelerated rural out-migration from the sector, which was facilitated by favorable policy changes, increased trade, and improved road infrastructure (Filipski et. al. 2021). Rural wages rose (Belton et. al. 2021), and labor shortages, along with increased access to financing, led to a massive expansion of mechanization services (Win et al. 2018) and other rural nonfarm enterprises. However, the economic transformation was disrupted by the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the political crisis caused by the military coup d’état in 2021. During this recent period, Myanmar’s agrifood system was impacted by numerous shocks, including disruptions to the banking and local transportation systems, changes to international trade policies, rapidly depreciating currency, foreign exchange controls, increasing global commodity prices, and massive declines in income and access to credit, among others. In this brief, we focus on Myanmar’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 and evaluate the potential contributions of different value chains to driving agricultural transformation and welfare gains in the future.
Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Round Four: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
The fourth round of the MHWS was carried out between October 12, 2022, and December 30, 2022. In the fourth round, 12,924 households responded to the survey. Of those households, 4831 households were interviewed in the first, second, third and fourth round. . Another 1,924 households were interviewed in Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4 only. Some 127 households rejoined the sample after being interviewed in Round 1 and Round 3. Finally, 3,724 households were added in Round 4 to replace the 2,928 households that dropped out of the sample after the third round.
To replace the households that dropped out of the survey, the survey team called 6,641 new households. The households were selected randomly from the phone database, in the same townships as the attrition households, and retained if they had similar characteristics to the attrition households in terms of urban/rural, gender, farm and low education. If the survey team could not meet those criteria, they called households with similar characteristics from the same state/region.
As many as 56 percent of new households called responded to the survey in Round 4, compared to only 31 percent of new households in Round 3. A big issue among both old and new respondents continues to be non-response, such as phones were not answered, powered off, or out-of-service, 39.5 percent of calls. For previous respondents, 36 percent of them did not respond to their phones, for any of those reasons, hence the high degree of attrition. Meanwhile, the refusal rate of new households remained low at 3 percent in Round 4 compared to 6 percent in Round 3. It is likely that phone connection and power outages were the main reason that phones were not answered- they were not on. Blackouts not only prevented many households from charging their phones, but also interrupted interviews, if the power was cut-off during the call.
To replace the households that dropped out of the survey, the survey team called 6,641 new households. The households were selected randomly from the phone database, in the same townships as the attrition households, and retained if they had similar characteristics to the attrition households in terms of urban/rural, gender, farm and low education. If the survey team could not meet those criteria, they called households with similar characteristics from the same state/region.
As many as 56 percent of new households called responded to the survey in Round 4, compared to only 31 percent of new households in Round 3. A big issue among both old and new respondents continues to be non-response, such as phones were not answered, powered off, or out-of-service, 39.5 percent of calls. For previous respondents, 36 percent of them did not respond to their phones, for any of those reasons, hence the high degree of attrition. Meanwhile, the refusal rate of new households remained low at 3 percent in Round 4 compared to 6 percent in Round 3. It is likely that phone connection and power outages were the main reason that phones were not answered- they were not on. Blackouts not only prevented many households from charging their phones, but also interrupted interviews, if the power was cut-off during the call.
Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Two: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Round 2 is a sub-sample survey carried out during the Dry (pre/post monsoon) Season of 2022 that includes farming households from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).
MHWS is a nationally and sub‐nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting quarterly data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS Round 1 sampled from the 5,465 farm households in MHWS Round 1 and completed interviews with 3,891 respondents. Round 2 used the Round 1 respondents as the initial sample and then added new farm households from MHWS R3 until a target of 5,000 respondents was exceeded.
Phone surveys have several shortcomings including representativeness, enumerator trust, measurement error, and shortened survey length. To help ensure representativeness of our sample we set targets for MHWS data collection from rural, female, lower-educated, and farming households. While there are weaknesses of phone surveys, there are also advantages, particularly in Myanmar. Previous face-to-face socioeconomic surveys in Myanmar failed to reach many townships across the country either due to conflict or remoteness. Round 2 of MAPS includes 275 out of 324 townships.
MHWS is a nationally and sub‐nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting quarterly data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS Round 1 sampled from the 5,465 farm households in MHWS Round 1 and completed interviews with 3,891 respondents. Round 2 used the Round 1 respondents as the initial sample and then added new farm households from MHWS R3 until a target of 5,000 respondents was exceeded.
Phone surveys have several shortcomings including representativeness, enumerator trust, measurement error, and shortened survey length. To help ensure representativeness of our sample we set targets for MHWS data collection from rural, female, lower-educated, and farming households. While there are weaknesses of phone surveys, there are also advantages, particularly in Myanmar. Previous face-to-face socioeconomic surveys in Myanmar failed to reach many townships across the country either due to conflict or remoteness. Round 2 of MAPS includes 275 out of 324 townships.
Effectiveness of a remote agricultural extension program in times of crisis: Experimental evidence from Myanmar
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish; Herrington, Caitlin; Zu, A Myint. 2023
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish; Herrington, Caitlin; Zu, A Myint. 2023
Abstract | Link
Agricultural extension can have important impacts on vulnerable populations by increasing food production, which improves both rural incomes and urban food security. Yet, crises induced by violent conflict or disease outbreaks can severe the connections between extension agents and farmers. Understanding how agricultural extension systems can safely and effectively reach farmers in times of crisis could help stabilize agri-food systems in fragile states. In the context of COVID-19, a military coup, and an emergent threat of fall armyworm in Myanmar, this paper uses a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of two cellphone-based extension interventions – a direct-to-farmer and a lead-farmer intervention – for fall armyworm control in maize. Despite low compliance, both interventions caused knowledge improvements. However, damage control estimates show that the lead-farmer group used pesticides most effectively. Similar cellphone-based lead-farmer programs could be an effective tool in fragile states and when faced with emergent threats to agriculture.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – April 2023 survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions.
Key Findings
• Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior.
• In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022.
• Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading.
Looking Ahead
• High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects.
• For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency.
• Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.
Key Findings
• Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior.
• In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022.
• Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading.
Looking Ahead
• High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects.
• For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency.
• Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.
Remittances and household welfare: Findings from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.2 MB)
Remittances are a critical source of household income in Myanmar and are significantly associated with positive welfare outcomes. In 2022, 33 percent of the households surveyed in the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) received remittances at least once in the twelve-month period. Remittances made up 7 percent of the average monthly per capita income of households in 2022. Among households that received remittances, 40 percent of their average monthly per capita income was from remittances. Considerably more households received remittances in 2022, compared to 2017, the last year for which there is nationally representative data (World Bank 2017). Despite the increase in the number of households receiving remittances, compared to 2017, the income share from remittances has decreased for all households. Even with internal lockdowns and border closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic, remittance senders migrated internally in 2020 and 2021. As a result, domestic remittance flows appear to have increased steadily since 2012. International remittance flows, on the other hand, decreased substantially during the first two years of the pandemic. They are now increasing rapidly. In 2022, households in Rakhine, Chin, Mon, and Kayin received the most remittances of the states/regions. Households in Chin, Kayin, Tanintharyi, and Mon received a greater percentage of remittances from international senders rather than domestic senders. Most international remittance flows were from Thailand, Malaysia, and China. Households in Kachin, Ayeyarwady, and Mandalay received the most remittances from domestic senders. Most domestic remittance flows were from Yangon, Mandalay, and Shan. Receiving remittances has a positive and significant association with improved welfare outcomes. Households that receive remittances are less likely to have lower income compared with last year and more likely to have a better food consumption score and a higher dietary diversity score. Households who receive remittances use fewer coping strategies. Finally, households who receive remittances are more likely to have an improved house made of brick, brick/wood, or semi-pucca.
Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns
Roy, Devesh; Kamar, Abul; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil; Ajmani, Manmeet. New Delhi, India 2023
Roy, Devesh; Kamar, Abul; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil; Ajmani, Manmeet. New Delhi, India 2023
Abstract | PDF
In this paper, we address the question of the agricultural market integration of Cambodia, Lao, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Philippines (CLMVP) countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its other top trading partners. Using “Trade Potential” and “Competition Indices” indicators in this paper we assess the nature and extent of the agricultural market integration. We identify the exports of CLMVP countries with high export potential and comparatively low competition in export markets. Higher trade potential with lower competition (value or volume) indicates an opportunity of higher returns for agricultural producers. CLMVP countries are characterized by low diversity in agricultural exports. Nearly half of the total agricultural exports from all of them except Laos is contributed by only one commodity. It is found that market integration is an effective way of linking CLMVP smallholders to ASEAN agricultural markets. In addition to that this paper also discusses on tariff and non-tariff policy of CLMVP countries and found that the average tariffs on agri-food imports in CLMVP is 11.8% while it is 9.5% in non-CLMVP among the ASEAN countries. In non-tariff policy, among the CLMVP countries, Philippines shares the maximum number of SPS measures implemented on agricultural goods while Cambodia and Lao PDR did not report any SPS measures implemented by them between 2006 to 2020. Finally, to demonstrate the upward movement in the value chain, possibly due to quality upgradation, we present the dynamics of the unit values of CLMVP’s agricultural exports.
How happy are you? It depends on when asked …
Tauseef, Salauddin; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart; Headey, Derek D.. Washington, DC 2023
Tauseef, Salauddin; Lambrecht, Isabel; Minten, Bart; Headey, Derek D.. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
Subjective well-being measures are increasingly applied in quantitative economic analyses intended to elicit non-monetary wellbeing of individuals. However, the subjective nature of this evaluation means that measurement and comparison may be confounded by differences in context or may be sensitive to the implementation modality. We use two rounds of a large-scale panel phone survey data from Myanmar to explore whether the randomized placement of a happiness module – either at the beginning or at the end of the survey – affects respondents’ answers. Respondents who were asked the happiness module at the end are more likely to be happy – an increase of 7 percentage points – compared to those who are asked at the beginning of the survey. This result is consistent using different models and robust to inclusion of enumerator fixed effects and other enumerator and survey characteristics. A related question on worry in the same module yields similar findings. Results also sustain over the two rounds of survey in which we conducted the experiment.
Agricultural extension in times of crisis and emergent threats: Effectiveness of a fall armyworm information intervention in Myanmar
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish K.; Herrington, Caitlin; Zu, A Myint. Washington, DC 2023
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish K.; Herrington, Caitlin; Zu, A Myint. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural extension can have important impacts on vulnerable populations by increasing food production, which improves both rural incomes and urban food security. Yet, crises induced by violent conflict or disease outbreaks can sever the connections between extension agents and farmers. Understanding how agricultural extension systems can safely and effectively reach farmers in times of crisis could help stabilize agri-food systems in fragile states. In the context of COVID-19, a military coup, and an emergent threat of fall armyworm in Myanmar, this paper uses a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of two cellphone-based extension interventions – a direct-to-farmer and a lead farmer intervention – for fall armyworm control in maize. Despite low compliance, both interventions caused knowledge improvements. However, damage control estimates show that the lead-farmer group used pesticides most effectively. Similar cellphone-based lead-farmer programs could be an effective tool in fragile states and when faced with emergent threats to agriculture.
Paddy rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2022 monsoon season
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the monsoon season of 2022 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), fielded in the beginning of 2023. The survey covered plots of 3,076 paddy rice producers, spread across all states/regions of the country. We find that:
1. Paddy rice productivity – tons of paddy produced per unit of cultivated land – at the national level decreased on average by 7.5 percent during the monsoon of 2022 compared to the monsoon of 2021. The lower productivity is mostly explained by adverse weather conditions, with negative impacts of droughts during the monsoon of 2022. Lower input use and other factors - such as increased insecurity - played an important role as well. Paddy rice yields were lowest in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states.
2. Prices for most inputs used in paddy rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by paddy rice farmers, increased by 87 percent on average while mechanization costs increased by 27 percent. Small decreases are noted, on average, in the use of paddy rice inputs over the last two monsoons. Despite the large price increases for chemical fertilizer, its use declined only by 8 percent compared to the previous monsoon.
3. Paddy prices at the farm level increased by 81 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Gross revenues per acre increased in nominal terms by 67 percent, mostly due to these high price increases.
4. Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the monsoon of 2022 increased by 26 percent and 10 percent compared to the monsoon of 2021 and 2020 respectively. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 95 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased much less.
While the rice sector demonstrated resilience in the country, the current situation is concerning given productivity declines and high price increases, raising fears for increased food insecurity in the country. We have found improved farm profitability this year and as fertilizer prices for the coming monsoon (the monsoon of 2023) are down (due to international price decreases) and international rice prices are up (due to lower global stocks), this might further improve profitability - and incentives - for paddy production in 2023. These price developments might possibly reverse the declining productivity trend. The big unknowns that might impact paddy production in 2023 though are the weather - with less rainfall expected due to El Niño conditions in the second half of the year - and the evolution of conflict-related insecurity in the country.
1. Paddy rice productivity – tons of paddy produced per unit of cultivated land – at the national level decreased on average by 7.5 percent during the monsoon of 2022 compared to the monsoon of 2021. The lower productivity is mostly explained by adverse weather conditions, with negative impacts of droughts during the monsoon of 2022. Lower input use and other factors - such as increased insecurity - played an important role as well. Paddy rice yields were lowest in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states.
2. Prices for most inputs used in paddy rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by paddy rice farmers, increased by 87 percent on average while mechanization costs increased by 27 percent. Small decreases are noted, on average, in the use of paddy rice inputs over the last two monsoons. Despite the large price increases for chemical fertilizer, its use declined only by 8 percent compared to the previous monsoon.
3. Paddy prices at the farm level increased by 81 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Gross revenues per acre increased in nominal terms by 67 percent, mostly due to these high price increases.
4. Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the monsoon of 2022 increased by 26 percent and 10 percent compared to the monsoon of 2021 and 2020 respectively. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 95 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased much less.
While the rice sector demonstrated resilience in the country, the current situation is concerning given productivity declines and high price increases, raising fears for increased food insecurity in the country. We have found improved farm profitability this year and as fertilizer prices for the coming monsoon (the monsoon of 2023) are down (due to international price decreases) and international rice prices are up (due to lower global stocks), this might further improve profitability - and incentives - for paddy production in 2023. These price developments might possibly reverse the declining productivity trend. The big unknowns that might impact paddy production in 2023 though are the weather - with less rainfall expected due to El Niño conditions in the second half of the year - and the evolution of conflict-related insecurity in the country.
Agricultural mechanization services, rice productivity, and farm/plot size: Insights from Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
The relationship between productivity and farm size has been at the center of considerable debate. Agricultural mechanization – that is rapidly taking off in a large number of low- and middle-income countries – has been identified as one of the emerging technologies in these settings with a critical, yet complex, influence on this productivity-size relation. However, knowledge gaps remain as how agricultural transformation due to the adoption of new technologies and the change in factor costs, such as mechanization fees, are associated with this productivity - size relation. In the case of Myanmar, where mechanization use has dramatically increased over the last decade, we find a significant inverse productivity - plot size relationship, with small rice plots having productivity levels approximately 30 percent higher than large plots. However, rising mechanization fees – more so in conflict-affected townships – attenuated this inverse relation between rice productivity (yield and profit per land) and plot size substantially. These results primarily hold on the largest rice plot cultivated by each farmer, but also generally hold when comparing total rice area and major non-rice area. Our results are likely explained by the fact that, in Myanmar, smallholders have become more dependent on mechanization services than larger farms (who can rely on their own machines) do, that alternatives to mechanization services have become scarce (as mechanization use changed little, despite these price increases), and that mechanization service costs account for a significant share of the total production costs among smallholders.
Women and youth in Myanmar agriculture [in Burmese]
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame. Washington, DC 2023
Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.2 MB)
Women’s and youth’s roles in agriculture vary across contexts and over time. Limited quantitative information is available on this topic from Southeast Asia in general, and particularly from Myanmar. We use nationally representative data to document women’s and youth’s involvement in agriculture in rural Myanmar. First, we show that women and youth contribute substantially to agriculture. Women in farm households perform 39 percent of household farm labour days, and 43 percent of agricultural wage workers are women. Twenty-seven percent of adults performing household agricultural work are youth and 22 percent of agricultural wage workers are youth. Yet, women’s farm wages are 29 percent lower than men’s farm wages. Youth’s farm wages are 17 percent lower than farm wages of non-youth for men, but we don’t find similar wage differences for women. Second, we find a significant gender gap in land rights, but the share of women who have land rights is still sizable. Nineteen percent of adult men are documented landowners compared to seven percent of adult women. Few youth have land rights, but the likelihood increases with age. Third, we explore cropping patterns. No crops are grown exclusively by men or women, but rice is more often and vegetables are less often cultivated by households where men are the sole agricultural decision makers. Finally, we focus on access to credit. Women receive loans less often than men (21 percent vs. 26 percent) and youth rarely receive loans (4 percent). Women’s loans are more often aimed at alleviating basic needs, such as food and health expenditures. Men’s loans are more often aimed at investment in productive activities, especially farming. The evidence suggests that including men, women and youth equally in agricultural projects and policy making is critical to advance equity and achieve development goals.
Myanmar agricultural performance survey (Monsoon 2022): Farm commercialization
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2022, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 5,000 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period February – March 2023. It is found that:
The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.
Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.
Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.
Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).
Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.
Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases.
Recommended Actions:
The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.
Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.
The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.
Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.
Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.
Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).
Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.
Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases.
Recommended Actions:
The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.
Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.
Vulnerability and welfare: Findings from the fourth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (October to December 2022)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (2.1 MB)
The fourth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between October and December 2022. It follows from three rounds that were carried out quarterly beginning in December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the fourth round related to shocks, coping strategies, and income poverty. The security situation in Myanmar continued to deteriorate during the fourth-round recall period. Increasingly, households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 22 percent of rural households and 27 percent of urban households, an increase compared to the previous rounds. This is because crime and violence continued to increase, affecting 12 and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Further, 8 percent of households were directly affected, either through violence against a household member, robbery, or appropriation and/or destruction of their assets. Households faced multiple disruptions besides insecurity. Disruptions in banking, internet, and electricity also negatively affected household wellbeing and livelihoods. Further, households struggled to receive medical services. Finally, while school attendance recovered, it was still under 70 percent in some states/regions. Eighty-four percent of households used at least one coping strategy to meet daily needs during the month prior to the fourth-round survey. The three most common coping strategies used were spending savings, reducing non-food expenditure, and reducing food expenditure. This has been consistent across rounds. Further, some households exhausted some or all of their coping strategies. Remittances were the only factor inversely associated with households’ probability of having lower income compared to last year, being income poor, and using coping strategies. In R4 income-based poverty increased by 30 percent compared to R1 (15 percentage points) and 7 percent compared to R3 (4 percentage points). Sixty-six percent of the population was income poor. The rise in income poverty between R3 and R4 was largely attributable to changes in urban poverty. Casual wage-earning households, both farm and non-farm, had the highest levels of income poverty. Compared to the other states/regions, households in Kayah, Chin, and Sagaing were the most vulnerable. They were more likely to be impacted by conflict, have income loss, and be income poor. Despite reporting comparatively less conflict, households in Rakhine were also vulnerable; nearly 80 percent of households in Rakhine were income poor and many were mortgaging/selling assets to cope.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers - January 2023 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
A phone survey was conducted in January 2023 to understand the effects of COVID‑19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs). MSPs are crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the tenth in a series of phone surveys, and trends from earlier surveys.
The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar 2022: Findings from four rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (2 MB)
The state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022. Four percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in October/December 2022. Hunger was highest in Chin (10%), Mon (6.8%), and Kayin (6%). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4% in December 2021/February 2022 to 15.7% in October/December 2022. The shares in October/December were highest in Chin (48.3%), Kayin (23.1%), and Magway (22.7%). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6% to 25.1% over the same period with rates higher for women, especially in rural areas. Decreases in diet quality among adults is driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. More than a third of all children aged 6-23 months and 15.9% of all children aged 24-59 months have inadequate diet quality. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar.
Key findings
Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent.
Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023.
The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022.
Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average.
The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022.
Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas.
Recommended actions
Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all
stakeholders.
Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs.
It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.
Key findings
Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent.
Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023.
The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022.
Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average.
The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022.
Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas.
Recommended actions
Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all
stakeholders.
Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs.
It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.
Data issues in analyzing agri-food trade in BIMSTEC: Challenges and recommendations
Saroj, Sunil; Roy, Devesh; Kamar, Abul; Pradhan, Mamata. Washington, DC 2023
Saroj, Sunil; Roy, Devesh; Kamar, Abul; Pradhan, Mamata. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
The focus of research on international trade has recently shifted from industries and countries to firms. Firm heterogeneity is shown to be a determinant of trade at both the intensive margin (increase exports per firm/product) and extensive margins (the number of firms exporting – new products, new partners, new varieties, and new prices). It is now widely accepted that exporting firms are larger, comparatively productive, more skilled, and capital-intensive, and pay higher wages than non-exporting firms.
The innovations in international trade literature that explains both the emergence as well as levels and the nature of trade flows through value chain integration necessitates examining trade-based exchanges at the highest possible levels of product disaggregation. Developments in trade theory emphasize that it is individual firms not countries that trade and analysis needs to incorporate firm characteristics in decisions and ability for exporting and importing. Firms are the appropriate unit of analysis for trade flows. It helps several paradoxes once the import of firm heterogeneity is understood.
Despite the substantive importance of granular level data and the significant level of disaggregated product-level bilateral trade flow data and enhanced computing power that are becoming available, most studies have tended to rely on analysis with high level of aggregation. Recent research on firm heterogeneity in international trade highlights the importance of extensive margins i.e., new products, new partners, new varieties, and cumulative of these i.e., new prices in trade patterns and firms' responses to trade liberalization and other policy changes. However, the high dimensionality of the data and the large number of responses to changes can easily overwhelm researchers. Additionally, bigger data sets may contain more noise, which can mask important systematic patterns. In analysis of trade flows, notwithstanding the rising incidence of differentiated products (varieties) and value chains that transcend national boundaries, methods in agri-food trade analysis in particular have not kept pace in terms of empirical methods and suitable data.
The innovations in international trade literature that explains both the emergence as well as levels and the nature of trade flows through value chain integration necessitates examining trade-based exchanges at the highest possible levels of product disaggregation. Developments in trade theory emphasize that it is individual firms not countries that trade and analysis needs to incorporate firm characteristics in decisions and ability for exporting and importing. Firms are the appropriate unit of analysis for trade flows. It helps several paradoxes once the import of firm heterogeneity is understood.
Despite the substantive importance of granular level data and the significant level of disaggregated product-level bilateral trade flow data and enhanced computing power that are becoming available, most studies have tended to rely on analysis with high level of aggregation. Recent research on firm heterogeneity in international trade highlights the importance of extensive margins i.e., new products, new partners, new varieties, and cumulative of these i.e., new prices in trade patterns and firms' responses to trade liberalization and other policy changes. However, the high dimensionality of the data and the large number of responses to changes can easily overwhelm researchers. Additionally, bigger data sets may contain more noise, which can mask important systematic patterns. In analysis of trade flows, notwithstanding the rising incidence of differentiated products (varieties) and value chains that transcend national boundaries, methods in agri-food trade analysis in particular have not kept pace in terms of empirical methods and suitable data.
Agricultural value chains in a fragile state: The case of rice in Myanmar
Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Win, Khin Zin; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2023
Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Win, Khin Zin; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The large majority of extreme poor in the world lives in fragile states. Yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. This paper analyzes Myanmar’s rice value chain – its most important staple and biggest value chain – during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. It relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. Despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup – most importantly linked to banking and transport – rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to such major shock. While processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare losses of almost USD 0.5 billion for the country. Using a market-pair regression method, we further find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. Despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions and facilitating cheap and safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and therefore improve welfare.
An overview of migration in Myanmar: Findings from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
This paper provides evidence on the extent and characteristics of migration in Myanmar between December 2021 and June 2022. We use data from three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, to analyze migration patterns in Myanmar. The data highlights a complex situation, where there is both new migration, that is driven by conflict, and more traditional migration, that is driven by a search for better employment both within Myanmar and abroad. We find that approximately 3.6 million individuals or 6.5 percent of the population of Myanmar moved over the 6-month study period. Between December 2021 and June 2022 fleeing direct conflict was the primary driver of migration for as many as 604 thousand individuals. During the same period, approximately 2 million individuals moved in search of a job for themselves or a family member. Finally, Chin, Yangon, and Rakhine had the highest rates of migration.
Unlocking agricultural trade potential in the BIMSTEC region: Policy challenges and implications
Kamar, Abul; Roy, Devesh. Washington, DC 2023
Kamar, Abul; Roy, Devesh. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization that comprises seven nations, five of which are from South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka) and two from Southeast Asia (Myanmar and Thailand). BIMSTEC aims to increase trade including agri-food products to much higher levels than its historical low values lying much below potential. In 2020, intra-BIMSTEC trade accounted for a mere 6.15% of the total trade among its member countries. In contrast, intra-ASEAN trade made up around 23% of the total trade within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These figures highlight the significant room for growth
in intra-regional trade among BIMSTEC member countries. Importantly the low share of intra BIMSTEC trade is not due to greater integration with supra-BIMSTEC partners. This policy note seeks to spell out some of the key agricultural trade policy-related challenges in the BIMSTEC region and their implications for economic integration in the area.
in intra-regional trade among BIMSTEC member countries. Importantly the low share of intra BIMSTEC trade is not due to greater integration with supra-BIMSTEC partners. This policy note seeks to spell out some of the key agricultural trade policy-related challenges in the BIMSTEC region and their implications for economic integration in the area.
Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. 2023
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting “hidden hunger” during economic crises.
Food prices and the wages of the poor: A low-cost, high-value approach to high-frequency food security monitoring
Headey, Derek D.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Marshall, Quinn; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Mahrt, Kristi. 2023
Headey, Derek D.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Marshall, Quinn; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Mahrt, Kristi. 2023
Abstract | PDF
International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises” in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages” of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages” – wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times” is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension.
A prepandemic nutrition-sensitive social protection program has sustained benefits for food security and diet diversity in Myanmar during a severe economic crisis
Maffioli, Elisa M.; Headey, Derek D.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Zaw, Nicholus Tint. 2023
Maffioli, Elisa M.; Headey, Derek D.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Zaw, Nicholus Tint. 2023
Abstract | Link
Background: One-third of preschool children in Myanmar were stunted in 2015–2016, and three-quarters of children 6–23 mo had inadequate diet diversity. In response, a large-scale nutrition-sensitive social protection program was implemented over 2016–2019. In 2020, however, Myanmar’s economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and harder still by a military takeover in 2021.
Objective: The objective of this study was to examine whether former beneficiaries of this program experienced better food security, food consumption, and diet diversity outcomes in the wake of major economic shocks.
Methods: In a previous cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted over 2016–2019, pregnant women and their children aged <2 y were randomly assigned to either: 1) CASH; 2) CASH + social and behavioral change communication (SBCC); or 3) a control group. Subsamples of these former participants were then resurveyed 10 times from June 2020 to December 2021 during Myanmar’s protracted economic crisis. Randomized treatment exposure was used in a regression analysis to test for postprogram impacts on Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, household food consumption, and maternal and child diet diversity. We also examined the impacts on household income as a secondary outcome and potential impact pathway. Results: Both intervention arms reported lower food insecurity, more frequent consumption of nutritious foods, and more diverse maternal and child diets compared with households in the control group. However, the improved dietary outcomes were larger for mothers and children exposed to CASH+SBCC compared with CASH, as was their monthly household income. Conclusions: The findings suggest that a program combining cash transfers with nutrition-related education can yield sustained benefits 1–2 y after the program was completed. This strengthens the evidence to support the expansion and scale-up of nutrition-sensitive social welfare programs to redress chronic malnutrition and enhance nutritional resilience in the face of a severe economic crisis.
Objective: The objective of this study was to examine whether former beneficiaries of this program experienced better food security, food consumption, and diet diversity outcomes in the wake of major economic shocks.
Methods: In a previous cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted over 2016–2019, pregnant women and their children aged <2 y were randomly assigned to either: 1) CASH; 2) CASH + social and behavioral change communication (SBCC); or 3) a control group. Subsamples of these former participants were then resurveyed 10 times from June 2020 to December 2021 during Myanmar’s protracted economic crisis. Randomized treatment exposure was used in a regression analysis to test for postprogram impacts on Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, household food consumption, and maternal and child diet diversity. We also examined the impacts on household income as a secondary outcome and potential impact pathway. Results: Both intervention arms reported lower food insecurity, more frequent consumption of nutritious foods, and more diverse maternal and child diets compared with households in the control group. However, the improved dietary outcomes were larger for mothers and children exposed to CASH+SBCC compared with CASH, as was their monthly household income. Conclusions: The findings suggest that a program combining cash transfers with nutrition-related education can yield sustained benefits 1–2 y after the program was completed. This strengthens the evidence to support the expansion and scale-up of nutrition-sensitive social welfare programs to redress chronic malnutrition and enhance nutritional resilience in the face of a severe economic crisis.
Regional variations and trends in the composition and vulnerability of rural livelihoods
Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2023
Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF
The regional context in which rural livelihoods in Myanmar are embedded varies widely, in terms of physical geography, climate and agroecology, local resource base, agrarian structure, infrastructure provision, proximity to urban areas and neighboring countries, social networks, institutions, and ethnicities. The composition of livelihoods in each administrative and geographical zone of the country reflects these diverse contexts. Marked variations in patterns of livelihoods are evident at multiple scales, from the zone or region, down to township, and village level, so that the composition of livelihoods in villages close to one another sometimes varies widely (Phyo, 2022). Despite a high level of place-based specificity, many broad similarities and common trends also shape the composition of livelihoods at sub-national and national levels. These include: Generally low levels of agricultural productivity relative to other countries in the region, in terms of both land and labor (World Bank 2016); High rates of landlessness and legacies of land confiscation and unresolved struggles over land rights and access (Mark and Belton 2020); Generally poor, though -prior to 2020 - rapidly improving, public infrastructure and services, including electricity, roads, schools, health services, and rural credit (Belton et al. 2017; Lambrecht and Belton 2018); Relatively low levels of diversification and capital in the rural non-farm economy; High rates of international and domestic outmigration (World Bank and LIFT 2016; CHIME 2019); Histories of ethno-political conflict and insecurity (South 2009). This working paper synthesizes analyses from four large household surveys, each covering a major agro-ecological zone, to evaluate inter-regional variations in the composition of livelihoods and the rural economy. The four zones examined are the Delta (Ayeyarwady and Yangon), the Dry Zone (Mandalay, Magway, Sagaing), the hills (represented by Shan South), and the coasts (represented by Mon State). We also synthesize recent secondary sources that offer additional context and insights on regional livelihood dynamics from these and other areas of Myanmar, including the impacts of the ‘triple crisis’ (covid, coup, and price inflation) beginning in 2020.
A pre-pandemic nutrition-sensitive social protection program has sustained benefits for food security and diet diversity in Myanmar during a severe economic crisis
Maffioli, Elisa M.; Headey, Derek D.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Zaw, Nicholus Tint. 2023
Maffioli, Elisa M.; Headey, Derek D.; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Zaw, Nicholus Tint. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Background: One third of pre-school children in Myanmar were stunted in 2015-16, and three quarters of children 6-23 months had inadequate diet diversity. In response, a large-scale nutrition-sensitive social protection program was implemented over 2016-2019. In 2020, however, Myanmar’s economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, and harder still by a military takeover in 2021.
Objective: To examine whether former beneficiaries of this program experienced better food security, food consumption, and diet diversity outcomes in the wake of major economic shocks.
Methods: In a previous cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted over 2016-2019, pregnant women and their under-2 children were randomly assigned to either: (1) Cash; (2) Cash + Social and Behavioral Change Communication (SBCC); or (3) a control group. A sub-sample of these former participants were then re-surveyed ten times from June 2020 to December 2021 during Myanmar’s protracted economic crisis. Randomized treatment exposure was used in a regression analysis to test for post-program impacts on Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, household food consumption, and maternal and child diet diversity. We also examined the impacts on household income as a secondary outcome and potential impact pathway.
Results: Both intervention arms reported lower food insecurity, more frequent consumption of nutritious foods, and more diverse maternal and child diets compared to households in the control group. However, the improved dietary outcomes were larger for mothers and children exposed to Cash+SBCC compared to Cash, as was their monthly household income.
Conclusions: The findings suggest that a program combining cash transfers with nutrition-related education can yield sustained benefits one to two years after the program was completed. This strengthens the evidence to support the expansion and scale-up of nutrition-sensitive social welfare programs to redress chronic malnutrition and enhance nutritional resilience in the face of a severe economic crisis.
Objective: To examine whether former beneficiaries of this program experienced better food security, food consumption, and diet diversity outcomes in the wake of major economic shocks.
Methods: In a previous cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted over 2016-2019, pregnant women and their under-2 children were randomly assigned to either: (1) Cash; (2) Cash + Social and Behavioral Change Communication (SBCC); or (3) a control group. A sub-sample of these former participants were then re-surveyed ten times from June 2020 to December 2021 during Myanmar’s protracted economic crisis. Randomized treatment exposure was used in a regression analysis to test for post-program impacts on Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, household food consumption, and maternal and child diet diversity. We also examined the impacts on household income as a secondary outcome and potential impact pathway.
Results: Both intervention arms reported lower food insecurity, more frequent consumption of nutritious foods, and more diverse maternal and child diets compared to households in the control group. However, the improved dietary outcomes were larger for mothers and children exposed to Cash+SBCC compared to Cash, as was their monthly household income.
Conclusions: The findings suggest that a program combining cash transfers with nutrition-related education can yield sustained benefits one to two years after the program was completed. This strengthens the evidence to support the expansion and scale-up of nutrition-sensitive social welfare programs to redress chronic malnutrition and enhance nutritional resilience in the face of a severe economic crisis.
Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. Washington, DC 2023
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (200.8 KB)
This study addresses the policy-relevant question of how, in the face of major economic shocks, social protection interventions can more effectively mitigate undernutrition. In particular, it considers the scope of scaled-up fortification of staples to avert the “hidden hunger” of micronutrient deficiencies. As a re-cent and still relevant example, it focuses on the kinds of economic shocks brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic which, especially during the first lockdowns of April 2020, resulted in severe job and income losses for the poor and thus reduction and changes in spending, with urban and rural non-farm households typically affected more severely than farm households. However, the findings of this study are relevant for other economic shocks that severely reduce household’s disposable income.
In this study, we examine the effects of stylized economic shocks on household incomes in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia, with a focus on the difference between recommended and actual consumption of particular foods and nutrients. To this end, we use a novel combination of three integrated models to examine impacts and experiment with different types of social protection interventions. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, these are stylized models of the COVID-19 shock and government lock-downs; in Myanmar, however, we model the economic instability that took place after the February 2021 military takeover, which – in conjunction with COVID-19 impacts – resulted in an estimated 18 percent contraction in GDP (World Bank 2022).
In this study, we examine the effects of stylized economic shocks on household incomes in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia, with a focus on the difference between recommended and actual consumption of particular foods and nutrients. To this end, we use a novel combination of three integrated models to examine impacts and experiment with different types of social protection interventions. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, these are stylized models of the COVID-19 shock and government lock-downs; in Myanmar, however, we model the economic instability that took place after the February 2021 military takeover, which – in conjunction with COVID-19 impacts – resulted in an estimated 18 percent contraction in GDP (World Bank 2022).
Conflict and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.6 MB)
Evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity in fragile states, an important topic given the high share of the extreme poor living in fragile environments globally. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers in Myanmar before and after a military coup in 2021, leading to a surge of conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events significantly changed rice productivity. Specifically, increases in fatal violent events between 2020 and 2021 reduced rice Total Factor Productivity (TFP) – a measure of how efficiently agricultural inputs are used to produce rice – by about 4 percent on average in the short-run. Moreover, poorer farmers are more affected by conflict, as seen through an increased output elasticity to agricultural equipment owned, indicating reduced output resilience for less-capital owning, and therefore poorer, farmers. This seems partly due to reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity, even with limited capital ownership, through substitution with human capital and skills. Lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects. Our results consistently hold for both short- and long-run production functions, across various specifications, and in Upper and Lower Myanmar. These findings suggest that containing and reducing violent events is critical in restoring rice productivity. Improved access to extension services, as well as to cheap mechanization service provision to mitigate lack of equipment ownership, could compensate for these losses and boost the productivity of farmers, especially for those with less production capital, in such fragile settings.
Dietary quality and nutrition in Myanmar: Past progress, current and future challenges
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek D.; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew R.; Tauseef, Salauddin. Washington, DC 2023
Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek D.; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew R.; Tauseef, Salauddin. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (1.7 MB)
In the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Myanmar was in the midst of a dietary transition driven by rapid economic growth and urbanization. In this study, we first use national survey data to compare household diets in 2015 to the healthy diet recommendations of food-based dietary guidelines adapted for Myanmar, as well as estimated nutrient consumption relative to recommended intakes. We use these food group and nutrient consumption gaps to estimate a new measure of multidimensional dietary deprivation developed by Pauw et al. (2022), and a novel extension of that index to nutrient deprivation. Both deprivation indices are strongly negatively correlated with total household expenditure. We then use food demand estimation to estimate income and own price elasticities, which reveal strong preferences for animal-sourced foods, but weaker preferences for vegetables and pulses. Expenditure data also point to strong demand for oils/fats – a problem observed throughout developing Asia (Pingali and Abraham 2022) – and for food away from home, which partially explains the rising burden of overweight/obesity in Myanmar. Moreover, since most nutrient-dense foods are income- and price-elastic, estimated income elasticities suggest that recent declines in household income and increases in food prices in Myanmar will result in declining dietary diversity.
We show that this is indeed the case utilizing household phone surveys conducted in recent years. We first use a food vendor survey to show that the cost of a healthy diet increased by 61 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. Next, we analyze a rural Dry Zone panel survey implemented 10 times over 2020-2021 and find that maternal and child dietary diversity both declined significantly as Myanmar’s economic situation deteriorated. Then, in a nationally representative phone survey conducted quarterly in 2022 over a period of rapid food inflation, we find further deterioration in diet quality among adults, but no deterioration among children 6-23 months of age, suggesting parents may be trying to insulate their children from the worst effects of the crisis.
Finally, we conclude the paper by discussing policy and program options in very difficult political circumstances. Malnutrition is a multidimensional problem requiring multisectoral solutions, but at present the breakdown in the provision of even basic services makes significant progress highly unlikely, and reversing the recent deterioration in dietary quality and nutrition will surely require resolution of Myanmar’s political crisis. In the interim, we discuss three potentially effective types of interventions: (1) rice fortification to reduce micronutrient deficiencies; (2) homestead food production to improve dietary quality in farm households and rural and peri-urban communities; and (3) nutrition-sensitive social protection for vulnerable mothers and young children, with transfers ideally accompanied by nutrition education interventions.
We show that this is indeed the case utilizing household phone surveys conducted in recent years. We first use a food vendor survey to show that the cost of a healthy diet increased by 61 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. Next, we analyze a rural Dry Zone panel survey implemented 10 times over 2020-2021 and find that maternal and child dietary diversity both declined significantly as Myanmar’s economic situation deteriorated. Then, in a nationally representative phone survey conducted quarterly in 2022 over a period of rapid food inflation, we find further deterioration in diet quality among adults, but no deterioration among children 6-23 months of age, suggesting parents may be trying to insulate their children from the worst effects of the crisis.
Finally, we conclude the paper by discussing policy and program options in very difficult political circumstances. Malnutrition is a multidimensional problem requiring multisectoral solutions, but at present the breakdown in the provision of even basic services makes significant progress highly unlikely, and reversing the recent deterioration in dietary quality and nutrition will surely require resolution of Myanmar’s political crisis. In the interim, we discuss three potentially effective types of interventions: (1) rice fortification to reduce micronutrient deficiencies; (2) homestead food production to improve dietary quality in farm households and rural and peri-urban communities; and (3) nutrition-sensitive social protection for vulnerable mothers and young children, with transfers ideally accompanied by nutrition education interventions.
Promising indicators for effectively targeting the poor in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (319.7 KB)
Social protection in Myanmar is currently very limited, and scarce development partner resources should be as accurately targeted to needy populations as possible, based on observable and verifiable characteristics. This note summarizes some promising poverty targeting indicators from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), conducted by phone among 12,000 households in 310 townships in July/August 2022.
Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. Washington, DC 2023
Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga. Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (659.5 KB)
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting ‘hidden hunger’ during economic crises.
Promising indicators for effectively targeting the poor in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (679.5 KB)
The social protection system in Myanmar has remained at a rudimentary level for the past decade, with policies scattered and fragmented across various government departments, and serving only a fraction of the eligible population. The government allocated only 0.8 percent of its expenditure to social protection constraining its ability to expand to vulnerable groups leaving households to rely on informal forms of safety nets against idiosyncratic and covariate shocks, and life-course contingencies (Niño-Zarazúa & Tarp 2021). Only 13.8 percent of the population received any form of social protection according to the 2017 MLCS, leaving much of the poor, which is about one-third of the population, out of the scope of protection. After the military takeover in 2021, government provision of social protection faced a complete collapse with near zero allocation to the population (MAPSA 2022c). In the face of the double predicament of the COVID-19 pandemic and coup, any form of anti-poverty investment should effectively target the poor based on observable and verifiable characteristics.
In this research note, we explore some promising indicators which can be used by implementing agencies to effectively target the poor. We use data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone during July and August of 2022. The survey was conducted among 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. The MHWS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The household survey questionnaire collected information on a wide variety of topics such as household composition, occupation, education, dwelling characteristics, assets, income, and agriculture.
In this research note, we explore some promising indicators which can be used by implementing agencies to effectively target the poor. We use data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone during July and August of 2022. The survey was conducted among 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. The MHWS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The household survey questionnaire collected information on a wide variety of topics such as household composition, occupation, education, dwelling characteristics, assets, income, and agriculture.
The stalled transformation of food processing in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2023
Abstract | PDF (793.5 KB)
We assess the status and effects of the twin crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on different segments (production, trade, and consumption) of Myanmar’s food processing sector. Since 2020, we note overall a stalled transformation in food processing in the country:
1. Production (post-farm): The food-processing sector – and especially rice milling – is shown to be very important, making up more than 80 percent of the revenue and value addition of the local industrial sector. The sector suffered substantially from the twin crises, as seen by reduced output and limited new investments in the two most recent years.
2. International trade: Myanmar is in most years a net agricultural exporter (in value terms). However, food exports are dominated by unprocessed and minimally processed products while food imports are mostly more expensive processed foods. While there was fast growth in international food trade between 2009 and 2019, new central bank regulations – focused on an import-substitution strategy to mitigate foreign exchange constraints – have altered trade substantially since.
3. Consumption: The categories of unprocessed and especially of minimally processed food products represent 64 and 23 percent of calories and food expenditures respectively, reflecting the importance of rice in Myanmar’s food economy. After the twin crises, the value of food consumption significantly decreased by 30 and 36 percent for rural and urban areas respectively between 2020 and 2022. However, consumption levels for rural residents are still lower after the crises than those of urban ones. Moreover, while real food consumption expenditures declined significantly for all income groups, the poorest suffered most from the crises as seen in the higher reduction of expenditures for the poorest quintiles (by 31 and 39 percent in rural and urban areas respectively).
1. Production (post-farm): The food-processing sector – and especially rice milling – is shown to be very important, making up more than 80 percent of the revenue and value addition of the local industrial sector. The sector suffered substantially from the twin crises, as seen by reduced output and limited new investments in the two most recent years.
2. International trade: Myanmar is in most years a net agricultural exporter (in value terms). However, food exports are dominated by unprocessed and minimally processed products while food imports are mostly more expensive processed foods. While there was fast growth in international food trade between 2009 and 2019, new central bank regulations – focused on an import-substitution strategy to mitigate foreign exchange constraints – have altered trade substantially since.
3. Consumption: The categories of unprocessed and especially of minimally processed food products represent 64 and 23 percent of calories and food expenditures respectively, reflecting the importance of rice in Myanmar’s food economy. After the twin crises, the value of food consumption significantly decreased by 30 and 36 percent for rural and urban areas respectively between 2020 and 2022. However, consumption levels for rural residents are still lower after the crises than those of urban ones. Moreover, while real food consumption expenditures declined significantly for all income groups, the poorest suffered most from the crises as seen in the higher reduction of expenditures for the poorest quintiles (by 31 and 39 percent in rural and urban areas respectively).
Myanmar agricultural performance survey (Q3 2022): Farm commercialization
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (810.3 KB)
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2022. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,021 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country in Q3 of 2022. This note assesses the perceived security situation of crop farmers, agricultural input availability and prices, prices of major crops at the farm level, changes in income from crop sales, and overall crop marketing challenges.
Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2022 dry season and farmers’ expectations for the monsoon of 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (610.4 KB)
Rice is an extremely important product for farmers’ livelihoods and for food security in Myanmar. Rice is the main staple, accounting for 51 and 62 percent of urban and rural calories consumed, respectively, making it crucial for food security in the country.1 Large international changes in commodity markets and twin local crises – COVID-19 and political problems due to the military take-over – have raised doubts on the performance of the agricultural sector overall and the rice sector in particular. The assessment on farmers’ rice productivity during the dry season of 2022 presented in this research note is based on data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) that was conducted with 678 rice producers, spread over all states/regions of the country, over the period August 2022 – September 2022. Detailed questions were asked to farmers about their background, input use and input prices, farm management practices, rice output and output prices, and natural and other shocks during the dry season of 2021 and 2022.2 This research note presents the results from that assessment.
The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar: Findings from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey 2021-2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (697.1 KB)
In this research note, we provide an overview of the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using a recently collected household dataset. We examine food security using a household hunger scale and a food consumption score. To examine the state of nutrition, we examine the diet quality of individuals across Myanmar for three separate but important sections of population: (1) adults (18+ years), (2) women of reproductive age (15-49 years), and (3) children (6-23 and 6-59 months).
We explore these indicators using three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone in the first three quarters of 2022 – hereafter Q1, Q2 and Q3 – among over 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. MWHS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). We use standard food security and diet diversity measures for each of the three subpopulations to examine trends over the three rounds as well as explore heterogeneity with respect to gender, location of residence, and asset and income-based welfare indicators. We also look at disaggregated consumption of the different food groups that constitute the diet diversity measures to investigate the change in the consumption pattern of individuals. Finally, we use regression analysis to look at predictors of food insecurity and inadequate diet diversity, including household wealth and income, selfreported shocks, food prices, and household characteristics.
We explore these indicators using three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone in the first three quarters of 2022 – hereafter Q1, Q2 and Q3 – among over 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. MWHS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). We use standard food security and diet diversity measures for each of the three subpopulations to examine trends over the three rounds as well as explore heterogeneity with respect to gender, location of residence, and asset and income-based welfare indicators. We also look at disaggregated consumption of the different food groups that constitute the diet diversity measures to investigate the change in the consumption pattern of individuals. Finally, we use regression analysis to look at predictors of food insecurity and inadequate diet diversity, including household wealth and income, selfreported shocks, food prices, and household characteristics.
Income diversification and the rural non-farm economy
Paudel, Susan; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Minten, Bart. Washington, DC 2022
Paudel, Susan; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Minten, Bart. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (1.1 MB)
This paper empirically investigates the role of off-farm and non-agricultural activities in Myanmar’s rural sector, based primarily on the nationally representative MLCS 2016/17. We find evidence of extensive diversification: rural households are generating about 25 percent of their income on the farm; the remaining income comes from wage labor (34 percent), non-agricultural businesses (27 percent), and about 15 percent from passive sources (remittances and others). More than half of rural households engage in non-farm activities. Despite this large participation, the non-farm sector is informal and has yet to reach its full job-creating potential. Diversification is broad-reaching, and prevalent at all levels of income; however, wealthier households participate more heavily in the non-farm sector. Land constraints, household size, education levels, and gender all appear correlated with households’ propensity to diversify. Since the start of the twin crises, we continue to see significant diversification in rural incomes and all sectors – farm and non-farm – suffering very similar income shocks.
Vulnerability and welfare: Findings from the third round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July and August 2022)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (2.3 MB)
The third round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between July and August 2022. It followed from a second round that was conducted between April and June 2022 and a first round that was carried out between December 2021 and February 2022. This report discusses the findings from the third round related to shocks, coping strategies, and income poverty.
During the third round of data collection, the security situation in Myanmar continued to decline. Increasingly, households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 21 percent of rural households and 25 percent of urban households, an increase compared to previous rounds. This is because crime and violence continued to increase, affecting 10 and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Further, 6 percent of households were directly affected, either through violence against a household member, robbery, or appropriation and/or destruction of their assets.
Households also continued to earn less income. In July and August of 2022, 46 percent of households reported lower income compared to the previous year. Disruptions in banking, internet, and electricity also negatively impact household wellbeing and livelihoods. Further, households struggled to receive medical services. Finally, while school attendance recovered, it was still under 50 percent in some states/regions. Eighty-two percent of households used at least one coping strategy to meet daily needs during the month prior to the third-round survey. The three most common coping strategies used were spending savings, reducing non-food expenditure, and reducing food expenditure. Further, some households exhausted some or all of their coping strategies.
Finally, income poverty increased during the third round; 62 percent of households were income poor. Casual wage earning and asset poor households were particularly vulnerable. Compared to the other states/regions, households in Kayah and Chin were the most vulnerable. They were more likely to be impacted by conflict, have income loss, and be income poor. Households in Rakhine, Kachin, and Tanintharyi were also vulnerable; more than 70 percent of households in those regions were income poor.
During the third round of data collection, the security situation in Myanmar continued to decline. Increasingly, households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 21 percent of rural households and 25 percent of urban households, an increase compared to previous rounds. This is because crime and violence continued to increase, affecting 10 and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Further, 6 percent of households were directly affected, either through violence against a household member, robbery, or appropriation and/or destruction of their assets.
Households also continued to earn less income. In July and August of 2022, 46 percent of households reported lower income compared to the previous year. Disruptions in banking, internet, and electricity also negatively impact household wellbeing and livelihoods. Further, households struggled to receive medical services. Finally, while school attendance recovered, it was still under 50 percent in some states/regions. Eighty-two percent of households used at least one coping strategy to meet daily needs during the month prior to the third-round survey. The three most common coping strategies used were spending savings, reducing non-food expenditure, and reducing food expenditure. Further, some households exhausted some or all of their coping strategies.
Finally, income poverty increased during the third round; 62 percent of households were income poor. Casual wage earning and asset poor households were particularly vulnerable. Compared to the other states/regions, households in Kayah and Chin were the most vulnerable. They were more likely to be impacted by conflict, have income loss, and be income poor. Households in Rakhine, Kachin, and Tanintharyi were also vulnerable; more than 70 percent of households in those regions were income poor.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2022 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (741.7 KB)
In August 2022, we surveyed 467 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.
Key findings
Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the most significant disruption by 91 percent of millers in August 2022. Rising fuel prices and access issues afflicted smaller, local mills while larger mills were more affected by interruptions in electricity supplies.
Continuing a trend from March 2022, banking and credit disruptions were less prevalent in August. Lending and borrowing show only minor changes relative to 2021.
Average milling throughput declined by more than 20 percent compared to a year prior, and stored volumes of both paddy and rice showed similar declines.
Rice prices and milling margins increased sharply by about 40 percent compared to last year, driven by rising global prices, and, most importantly, by a rapid devaluation of Myanmar kyat. In USD terms, the price increases are more modest and closer to global changes. At the parallel (unofficial) exchange rate, prices have declined.
Prices of byproducts (in kyats) have also increased sharply from the last year, especially for rice bran which is important to the animal feed industry.
Looking forward
Looking forward to the 2022 monsoon harvest and marketing season, over half of all millers expect a decline in paddy production of at least 10 percent in their townships and an additional 22 percent of millers expect a smaller decline. Just 3 percent expect their local paddy production to be higher in 2022 monsoon than in 2021.
Changes in input use (e.g., a decline in fertilizer application) are far and away the most cited reason for lower expected paddy production. Half of millers said that less favorable rainfall patterns compared to 2021 are also a factor in lower paddy production.
On top of lower reported throughput in August 2022 and lower storage volumes, a decline in monsoon paddy production would have large implications for both rural and urban households. Lower supply coupled with the continued and widespread disruptions to utilities and transport, could drive prices even higher. At the same time, unpredictable foreign exchange and export policies could make it difficult for value chain actors to anticipate supply and demand conditions, resulting in higher price volatility.
Key findings
Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the most significant disruption by 91 percent of millers in August 2022. Rising fuel prices and access issues afflicted smaller, local mills while larger mills were more affected by interruptions in electricity supplies.
Continuing a trend from March 2022, banking and credit disruptions were less prevalent in August. Lending and borrowing show only minor changes relative to 2021.
Average milling throughput declined by more than 20 percent compared to a year prior, and stored volumes of both paddy and rice showed similar declines.
Rice prices and milling margins increased sharply by about 40 percent compared to last year, driven by rising global prices, and, most importantly, by a rapid devaluation of Myanmar kyat. In USD terms, the price increases are more modest and closer to global changes. At the parallel (unofficial) exchange rate, prices have declined.
Prices of byproducts (in kyats) have also increased sharply from the last year, especially for rice bran which is important to the animal feed industry.
Looking forward
Looking forward to the 2022 monsoon harvest and marketing season, over half of all millers expect a decline in paddy production of at least 10 percent in their townships and an additional 22 percent of millers expect a smaller decline. Just 3 percent expect their local paddy production to be higher in 2022 monsoon than in 2021.
Changes in input use (e.g., a decline in fertilizer application) are far and away the most cited reason for lower expected paddy production. Half of millers said that less favorable rainfall patterns compared to 2021 are also a factor in lower paddy production.
On top of lower reported throughput in August 2022 and lower storage volumes, a decline in monsoon paddy production would have large implications for both rural and urban households. Lower supply coupled with the continued and widespread disruptions to utilities and transport, could drive prices even higher. At the same time, unpredictable foreign exchange and export policies could make it difficult for value chain actors to anticipate supply and demand conditions, resulting in higher price volatility.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – August 2022 survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (1008.9 KB)
Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.
The precarious situation of agricultural wage laborers in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (629.3 KB)
To understand the effects of COVID-19, the political crisis, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural wage laborers (those workers relying on casual labor in agriculture), we rely on data from three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey and two rounds of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey, fielded in 2021 and 2022.
Hybrid livelihoods: Maize and agrarian transformation in Southeast Asia's uplands
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. 2022
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. 2022
Abstract | Link
Hybrid maize farming has boomed across upland Southeast Asia in the past three decades. Recent studies suggest that the boom has resulted in diverse outcomes across countries. In Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos, the introduction of hybrid maize has often initially been linked to rising incomes and living standards, with little loss or concentration of landholdings. In contrast, recent studies from Myanmar argue that exploitative trader-farmer credit relations are driving rapid agrarian differentiation and dispossession. We analyze patterns of agrarian change associated with hybrid maize farming in southern Shan State, Myanmar, using data from a representative survey of 1562 rural households. Widespread farmer engagement in maize cultivation has contributed to deepening petty commodity production and some economic differentiation, but with little dispossession or negative impacts on food security. Credit provision by traders may benefit some larger farmers but does not actively penalize smaller producers. Hybrid maize is a ‘moderate risk, moderate reward’ crop that households integrate strategically into a broader patchwork of subsistence farming, higher risk cash crop production, and a growing mix of off-farm activities. Employment in non-farm enterprises, salaried work, and migration have significant potential to modify trajectories of differentiation associated with agriculture.
Effects of COVID-19 restrictions on mechanization service providers and mechanization equipment retailers: Insights from phone surveys in Myanmar
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Masias, Ian; Win, Myat Thida; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2023
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Masias, Ian; Win, Myat Thida; Zone, Phoo Pye. 2023
Livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture in Myanmar: Status and recent trends [in Burmese]
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2022
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (784 KB)
Traditional forms of livestock-rearing and fishing have been central components in rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain important today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early-1990s and grew briskly thereafter. This paper summarizes the status of the supply side of livestock, capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors in Myanmar, based on analysis of nationally representative data extracted from the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey 2017 and supporting information from other recent surveys and secondary sources. We examine levels of livestock ownership, participation in capture fisheries and aquaculture, reasons for rearing livestock, ownership of fishing assets, and household earnings from all three activities. We also discuss the characteristics of more geographically clustered, capital intensive forms of poultry and swine farming, fishing, and fish farming, and the downturn in these sectors beginning in 2020 with the twin crises of COVID-19 and the coup. We conclude with a discussion of possible future directions for livestock farming, capture fisheries and aquaculture in Myanmar, along with priorities for sectoral upgrading.
Agri-food Trade in Myanmar: Its role in Myanmar’s future economic takeoff [in Burmese]
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Lwin, Wuit Yi. Washington, DC 2022
Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Lwin, Wuit Yi. Washington, DC 2022
Opportunities and constraints for production and income growth in rural Myanmar: Inter-regional variations in the composition of agriculture, livelihoods, and the rural economy [in Burmese]
Belton, Ben; Cho, Ame; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Goeb, Joseph; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mather, David; Win, Myat Thida. Washington, DC 2022
Belton, Ben; Cho, Ame; Filipski, Mateusz J.; Goeb, Joseph; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mather, David; Win, Myat Thida. Washington, DC 2022
Welfare and vulnerability: Findings from the second round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (April – June 2022)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC
Abstract | PDF (1.5 MB)
The second round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2022. It follows from a first round that was carried out between December 2021 and February 2022. This report discusses the findings from the second round related to shocks, livelihoods, coping strategies and food security. We find that 19.6 percent of households reported security and climatic shocks in the three months prior to their interview. Further, there is an uptick in reported crime, violence,and insecurity across communities in the second round, compared with the first. Theft is also an important issue, with 3.2 percent of households burglarized. Fifty-five percent of households report a lower income in the beginning of 2022 compared to 12 months earlier. Eighty-three percent of households use at least one coping strategy to meet daily needs during the month prior to the survey. The three most common copying strategies are spending savings, reducing nonfood expenditure, and reducing food expenditure. Seventeen percent of households have poor or borderline food consumption, more than in round one (R1), when the share was 9.4 percent. This change is in part driven by a decrease in animal-sourced food consumption, from 5.0 days a week in R1, to 3.9 days a week in round two (R2). Finally, hunger is an issue for 4.0 percent of
households. Regression analysis reveals that self-reported community insecurity and climatic shocks are strongly associated with negative outcomes for income, coping, and food security. Finally, households in Kayah and Chin are the most vulnerable; they report insecurity, violence,
and crime in their communities and compared to the other states/regions are more likely to have income loss, poor food consumption and hunger.
households. Regression analysis reveals that self-reported community insecurity and climatic shocks are strongly associated with negative outcomes for income, coping, and food security. Finally, households in Kayah and Chin are the most vulnerable; they report insecurity, violence,
and crime in their communities and compared to the other states/regions are more likely to have income loss, poor food consumption and hunger.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – July 2022 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (1.2 MB)
To understand the effects of political instability, COVID-19, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 252 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in July 2022.
Myanmar household welfare survey round two: Note on sample characteristics and weighting
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF
The second round of the MHWS was carried out between April 7th, 2022, and June 24th, 2022. In the second round, 12,142 households responded to the survey, 7,786 households were interviewed in both the first and second round, 4,356 households were added in the second round, while 4,314 households dropped out of the sample after the first round. Issues with blackouts and ongoing conflict made it difficult to collect data from rural lower-educated households. After weighting, the sample is not statistically different from the round one sample, in terms of household location, percent farming households, and percent lower-educated households.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2022 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF
A phone survey was conducted in July 2022 to understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs), crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the ninth in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.
Trade policies for improved food security
Melagne, N'Guessan Dieu-Donne; Ehuitche, Beke Tite. Washington, DC 2021
Melagne, N'Guessan Dieu-Donne; Ehuitche, Beke Tite. Washington, DC 2021
Abstract | PDF
Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) remains highly dependent on agricultural and food trade for its population’s wellbeing (Bouët et al, 2021). In particular, regional trade integration is crucial for food security in the region, where agricultural trade plays an essential role in regulating the supply and prices of food products and contributes to household food security. Food and nutrition security are among the main priorities established by SSA’s major regional integration agreements, including ECOWAS/ECOWAP; ECCAS/SAC; COMESA, and the AfCTA (CEDEAO, 2015; Matthews, 2003; AEC, 2018). Despite existing free trade agreements for agri-food products within regional areas, however, many trade barriers remain: weak transport and communication infrastructures, technical barriers to trade, abusive controls and illicit payments from corridors, costs and delays of customs procedures, information and exchange costs, and costs linked to local distribution and pricing policy of agri-foodstuffs. These barriers are also combined with the region’s current structural and institutional weaknesses. To tackle these obstacles and improve food security, appropriate actions and policies are required (Tinta et al., 2018; N’guessan et Béké, 2020). This proposal outlines specific recommendations for best practices in trade facilitation and related policies for improved food security in SSA countries, based on relevant recent research.
Farm commercialization in Myanmar: A transformation on hold or in reverse?
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (1.4 MB)
Over the last decade, farms in Myanmar have gone through important market transitions. On the input side, imports of chemical fertilizer increased four-fold and agro-chemicals eight-fold while 55 percent more farmers were using mechanization rental services between 2011 and 2020. On the output side, three-quarters of Myanmar’s crop production is sold, indicating high market orientation, especially so for non-paddy crops. However, farm commercialization in Myanmar started from a low base and is still lagging peer countries in the region. The twin crises in 2020 and 2021 (the covid-19 and the political crisis) and international market developments have further led to increasing worries for an agricultural market transformation on hold or in reverse, as seen by a decline in imports of modern inputs, driven by price increases of inputs, currency policy changes, insecurity, and reduced profitability for most crop farmers. To improve farm commercialization and to catch up with peers, a better and secure business environment, openness to trade, further diversification, and improved infrastructure is called for.
Agricultural land and crop production in Myanmar
Lambrecht, Isabel; Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun; Minten, Bart; Naing, Phyo Thandar. Washington, DC 2022
Lambrecht, Isabel; Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun; Minten, Bart; Naing, Phyo Thandar. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (865.4 KB)
Southeast Asia’s agricultural landscape is known for rice production in lowland areas, diverse upland areas, and the cultivation of ‘boom crops’ in the borderlands. Despite general similarities across different Southeast Asian countries, each has its own distinct history and patterns of land use, access, and ownership. However, little is documented, particularly for Myanmar, the second largest country in Southeast Asia. We therefore focus on agricultural land ownership and use patterns in Myanmar and employ nationally representative household survey data to document patterns at the national level and by agro-ecological zone. We explore inequality in landholdings, land tenure arrangements and documents, cropping patterns, and irrigation access.
Asia-wide impacts of COVID-19 on national food systems and recovery paths
Piñeiro, Valeria; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2022
Piñeiro, Valeria; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF
2020 was marked by a global recession. Most Asian economies witnessed a major eco nomic downturn or, at the minimum, major decelerations in economic growth of magnitudes not seen since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Being a major hub of globalization, Asia has suffered from both local supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 restrictions and its policy responses and fallout in demand associated with the collapse on global markets. Economic recovery during 2021 was uneven. Expectations were that recovery during 2021 would promote economic activity back to the levels of 2019 in South Asia and East Asia,in Southeast Asia, though, the revival was expected to be delicate for a full recovery. Not all perturbations seen in 2020 and 2021 were COVID-19 related. Three countries in Asia faced country-specific crisis. Conflict was a major factor in Afghanistan and Myanmar, while North Korea did not suffer any registered COVID cases, and its woes were internal. This report assesses the impacts of the COVID-recession and recovery on household vul nerability, using a model-based analysis that captures the observed global macroeconomic trajectory as reported in the IMF’s World Economy Outlook of October 2021. By capturing observed growth patterns, the scenario analysis thus incorporates the economic conse quences of the supply disruptions captured and caused by the public health crisis as well as the effects of economic and social policy responses, such as fiscal stimulus and en hanced social protection. However, we do not include the household-level effects of tar geted safety nets, especially in 2020 and 2021.
Myanmar: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security
Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mahrt, Kristi; Minten, Bart; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Smart, Jenny; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2022
Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mahrt, Kristi; Minten, Bart; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Smart, Jenny; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (280.3 KB)
Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1).
Double Jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'etat and poverty in Myanmar
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (786.9 KB)
Myanmar experienced four distinct COVID shocks to its economy over 2020 to early 2022 as well as a military takeover in February 2021 that created severe political, civil and economic turmoil. COVID and the coup d’état reversed a decade of growth and poverty reduction, but the full extent of the crisis on household poverty has remained uncertain because of the challenges of conducting large-scale in-person welfare surveys during the pandemic and recent political instability. Here we combine ex ante simulation models with diverse phone survey evidence from mid-2020 to early 2022 to estimate the poverty impacts of these shocks and some of the mechanisms behind them. Both simulations and surveys are consistent in painting a grim picture of rising poverty, capital-depleting coping mechanisms, and the complete collapse of government-provided social protection.
Poverty measurement by phone: Developing and testing alternative poverty metrics from the nationally representative Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), Round 1 (December 2021-January 2022)
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (1.7 MB)
Poverty measurement in low and middle income countries (LMICs) has always been challenging, especially among rural households whose incomes are characterized by seasonality, informality and some degree of subsistence consumption. During the COVID-19 pandemic poverty measurement became even more challenging as research had to resort phone surveys, who necessary brevity precludes the use of detailed household expenditure modules preferred in rural settings. Phone surveys instead typically resorted to qualitative questions on income losses and other welfare impacts of economic shocks. Here we use the new nationally representative Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) to experiment with three kinds of poverty measures: (1) Asset poverty (10 questions); (2) Income poverty (a maximum of 17 questions); and (3) Food expenditure poverty (based on 4 questions). We first describe the methods for constructing these three indicators – including the poverty lines used for income and food poverty – and their conceptual strengths and weaknesses, before turning to a descriptive analysis of their geographical patterns, their associations with each other and with expenditure-based poverty in the last national survey in 2017. We then test their ability to predict poor diet quality and experiences of hunger, which – based on previous studies – are outcomes that ought to be highly sensitive to household poverty. We draw three important conclusions for measuring poverty in phone surveys. First, asset poverty and income poverty are strongly associated with each other, and with state/region poverty patterns of expenditure-based poverty in 2017. Second, asset poverty was consistently the strongest predictor of poor diet diversity among adults and children, as well as food insecurity at the household level, but income poverty also predicted these outcomes even after controlling for asset poverty. Third, we argue that phone surveys should measure both asset and income poverty, but should likely steer clear of food expenditure measures, which will either require overly long survey instruments, or very short questionnaires susceptible to underestimate of expenditure and overestimation of poverty. However, asset and income poverty are relatively quick and easy to measure, and conceptual complements to each other: income poverty is likely to be sensitive to shocks and seasonality, while asset poverty is insensitive to these fluctuations but captures long-term wealth. Finally, another important benefit of measuring income poverty is its ability to capture the effects of inflationary shocks, as inflation can affect both nominal incomes (e.g. through unemployment) as well as through the analyst’s price adjustments to the real food poverty line.
Myanmar agricultural performance survey (Q1 2022): Farmgate prices and marketing by crop farmers
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (2.3 MB)
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of output markets and crop prices in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2021. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 4,000 crop farmers in 281 townships in all states/regions of the country, over the period February 2022 – March 2022. We found that:
Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before.
Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent.
There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent.
Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.
Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before.
Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent.
There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent.
Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.
Livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture in Myanmar: Status and recent trends
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2022
Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (674.7 KB)
Traditional forms of livestock-rearing and fishing have been central components in rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain important today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early-1990s and grew briskly thereafter. This paper summarizes the status of the supply side of livestock, capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors in Myanmar, based on analysis of nationally representative data extracted from the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey 2017 and supporting information from other recent surveys and secondary sources. We examine levels of livestock ownership, participation in capture fisheries and aquaculture, reasons for rearing livestock, ownership of fishing assets, and household earnings from all three activities. We also discuss the characteristics of more geographically clustered, capitalintensive forms of poultry and swine farming, fishing, and fish farming, and the downturn in these sectors beginning in 2020 with the twin crises of COVID-19 and the coup. We conclude with a discussion of possible future directions for livestock farming, capture fisheries and aquaculture in Myanmar, along with priorities for sectoral upgrading.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2022 survey round
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (782.4 KB)
In March 2022, we interviewed more than 540 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain.
Key findings:
Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the largest disruption for more than 80% of millers in March 2022, overtaking banking disruptions which had been the largest challenge in each survey round since early 2021.
Transport and fuel cost increases are also significant difficulties for modern mills. Diesel prices have more than doubled from a year ago.
Paddy and rice prices were higher in March 2022 than one year prior. For Emata varieties, paddy prices increased by 14 percent and milled rice prices increased by 8 percent. However, milling margins are stable, suggesting that millers are not contributing to the escalating consumer rice prices.
Total monsoon harvest season throughput declined by 15 percent on average compared to a year ago. The leading factor is likely households withholding more rice and marketing smaller volumes, though reduced milling time from electricity cuts and diesel shortages also contribute.
Lower throughput and constant margins imply lower overall profitability reflected in lower average operating capital. Lower profits and heightened uncertainty over the last two years have also contributed to a sharp decline in machinery investments.
Looking forward:
Increasing fuel and transport costs increase distribution margins and raise consumer prices. Electricity shortages or unpredictable shutoffs for modern mills could put further upward pressure on prices by restricting the marketed supply of rice.
There is a high degree of uncertainty about rice exports from the recent foreign exchange policy changes including a fixed kyat conversion rate. Access to export markets can help stabilize prices in an otherwise turbulent economy. Further, with declining miller profits, byproduct markets become even more important for financial viability and a large volume of broken rice is exported. Therefore, potential disruptions to rice exports could have adverse effects on the rice value chain.
The low investment in machinery in recent years not only suggests stalled growth in the rice milling sector but also some depreciation of equipment without replacement.
Key findings:
Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the largest disruption for more than 80% of millers in March 2022, overtaking banking disruptions which had been the largest challenge in each survey round since early 2021.
Transport and fuel cost increases are also significant difficulties for modern mills. Diesel prices have more than doubled from a year ago.
Paddy and rice prices were higher in March 2022 than one year prior. For Emata varieties, paddy prices increased by 14 percent and milled rice prices increased by 8 percent. However, milling margins are stable, suggesting that millers are not contributing to the escalating consumer rice prices.
Total monsoon harvest season throughput declined by 15 percent on average compared to a year ago. The leading factor is likely households withholding more rice and marketing smaller volumes, though reduced milling time from electricity cuts and diesel shortages also contribute.
Lower throughput and constant margins imply lower overall profitability reflected in lower average operating capital. Lower profits and heightened uncertainty over the last two years have also contributed to a sharp decline in machinery investments.
Looking forward:
Increasing fuel and transport costs increase distribution margins and raise consumer prices. Electricity shortages or unpredictable shutoffs for modern mills could put further upward pressure on prices by restricting the marketed supply of rice.
There is a high degree of uncertainty about rice exports from the recent foreign exchange policy changes including a fixed kyat conversion rate. Access to export markets can help stabilize prices in an otherwise turbulent economy. Further, with declining miller profits, byproduct markets become even more important for financial viability and a large volume of broken rice is exported. Therefore, potential disruptions to rice exports could have adverse effects on the rice value chain.
The low investment in machinery in recent years not only suggests stalled growth in the rice milling sector but also some depreciation of equipment without replacement.
Welfare and vulnerability: Findings from the first round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (3.9 MB)
The first round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between December 2021 and February 2022 with 12,100 households. This report discusses its findings related to shocks, livelihoods, coping strategies and food security. We find that almost 1 in 5 households experience physical insecurity, more than 1 in 10 were negatively affected by climatic shocks, and 3 in 5 experienced sickness or death of household members in the past three months. Two thirds of households reported a lower income in the beginning of 2022 compared to 12 months earlier, indicating widespread impacts of the pandemic, the political crisis, and the ensuing economic crisis. Ninety percent of households applied at least one coping strategy to deal with lack of food or money during the past month. More than half of all households lowered food and non-food expenditures. A large number of households also used more dramatic coping strategies, including high-risk income generating activities (4 percent), children working (3 percent of households), migration (1 percent), or selling of the dwelling or land (1 percent). Even though data were collected in the beginning of 2022 after the monsoon harvest and thus a relatively favorable time of the year for food security, still 9 percent of the households did not have an adequate food consumption pattern and 4 percent suffered from moderate or severe hunger. Violent events in the township, self-reported physical insecurity, climatic and health shocks all are strongly associated with negative outcomes for income, coping and food security. Chin and Kayah state experienced high levels of violence and consistently perform worse across the range of welfare indicators considered.
Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2021 monsoon and outlook for 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (7.6 MB)
We analyze rice input and productivity data for the monsoon seasons of 2020 and 2021 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS). The survey covers plots of 2,672 rice producers, spread over 259 townships in all states/regions of the country. We find that:
1. Rice productivity at the national level during the monsoon of 2021 decreased on average by 2.1 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. Considering estimated area reductions, national paddy production decreased by 3.4 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020.
2. Some areas performed substantially worse. Rice yields were low and declined significantly in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states that have shown the highest levels of food insecurity in recent assessments.
3. Prices for most inputs used in rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 56 percent on average and mechanization costs increased by 19 percent.
4. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 8 percent, significantly less than input prices, squeezing rice farmers’ profits during the monsoon of 2021.
Despite the substantial hurdles in production and marketing due to the political crisis and international market developments, the results of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey show the overall resilience of rice production during the monsoon of 2021. While the rice sector has been a source of stability in the country, the situation for future crop seasons is however concerning given further increases in input prices (especially fertilizer), the overall reduced profitability of rice farming, the reduced coping strategies remaining for rice farmers, and currency policy changes by the military government.
1. Rice productivity at the national level during the monsoon of 2021 decreased on average by 2.1 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. Considering estimated area reductions, national paddy production decreased by 3.4 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020.
2. Some areas performed substantially worse. Rice yields were low and declined significantly in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states that have shown the highest levels of food insecurity in recent assessments.
3. Prices for most inputs used in rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 56 percent on average and mechanization costs increased by 19 percent.
4. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 8 percent, significantly less than input prices, squeezing rice farmers’ profits during the monsoon of 2021.
Despite the substantial hurdles in production and marketing due to the political crisis and international market developments, the results of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey show the overall resilience of rice production during the monsoon of 2021. While the rice sector has been a source of stability in the country, the situation for future crop seasons is however concerning given further increases in input prices (especially fertilizer), the overall reduced profitability of rice farming, the reduced coping strategies remaining for rice farmers, and currency policy changes by the military government.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – March 2022 survey
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (690 KB)
Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices.
This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.
This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - March 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (765 KB)
This Research Note presents the results of recent interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar as a part of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) telephone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The purpose of the food vendor component of the MHWS is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores (nominal) prices of foods and difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises.
Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Phone-survey evidence from rural and urban Myanmar in 2020
Headey, Derek D.; Goudet, Sophie; Lambrecht, Isabel; Maffioli, Elisa Mari; Oo, Than Zaw; Russell, Toth. 2022
Headey, Derek D.; Goudet, Sophie; Lambrecht, Isabel; Maffioli, Elisa Mari; Oo, Than Zaw; Russell, Toth. 2022
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Myanmar first experienced the COVID-19 crisis as a relatively brief economic shock in early 2020, before the economy was later engulfed by a prolonged surge in COVID-19 cases from September 2020 onwards. To analyze poverty and food security in Myanmar during 2020 we surveyed over 2000 households per month from June–December in urban Yangon and the rural dry zone. By June, households had suffered dramatic increases in poverty, but even steeper increases accompanied the rise in COVID-19 cases from September onwards. Increases in poverty were much larger in urban areas, although poverty was always more prevalent in the rural sample. However, urban households were twice as likely to report food insecurity experiences, suggesting rural populations felt less food insecure throughout the crisis.
Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish K.; Win, Khin Zin; Masias, Ian; Lambrecht, Isabel; Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart. 2022
Goeb, Joseph; Maredia, Mywish K.; Win, Khin Zin; Masias, Ian; Lambrecht, Isabel; Boughton, Duncan; Minten, Bart. 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) fact sheet
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF (649.2 KB)
USAID’s Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) integrates research, policy design, and public outreach to establish the foundation required for a sustainable and inclusive agricultural sector in Burma. This activity advances USAID’s goal of a more inclusive and accountable Burma in the face of significant political, economic, and climate challenges.
Food prices, processing, and shocks: Evidence from rice and COVID-19
Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Zu, A Myint; Tang, Yulu; Minten, Bart. 2022
Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Zu, A Myint; Tang, Yulu; Minten, Bart. 2022
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Rice is the staple food for about half of the world's population and mills are the essential processing link between farmers and consumers, making rice milling one of the most important agro-processing sectors globally. This paper assesses changes in rice and paddy prices, and processing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic shock through the lens of rice mills in Myanmar. Our data, collected through telephone surveys with a large number of medium- and large-scale rice millers in September 2020, reveal significant disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, including transportation restrictions, employee lay-offs, and reduced operations relative to normal times. However, milling margins, and paddy and rice prices were mostly stable, showing only minor increases compared to 2019. Rice prices increased most for the varieties linked to export markets, though the gains were mostly passed through to farmers as higher paddy prices. Similarly, higher rice prices achieved by modern mills—due to extra processing—were mostly transmitted to producers. Our results also highlight the major importance of byproducts—broken rice and rice bran—sales to overall milling margins as byproduct sales allowed mill operators to sustain negative paddy-to-rice margins.
Can nutrition education mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on dietary quality? Cluster-randomised controlled trial evidence in Myanmar's central dry zone
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Zhao, Hongdi; Aung, Zin Wai; Scott, Jessica. 2021
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Zhao, Hongdi; Aung, Zin Wai; Scott, Jessica. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
We evaluate the immediate impact of a nutrition and gender behaviour change communication on dietary quality in rural communities in Myanmar and assess whether the communication helped mitigate the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on dietary quality. The intervention was designed and implemented as a cluster-randomised controlled trial in which 15 villages received the intervention and 15 control villages did not. The intervention was implemented from June to October 2020. This paper provides an assessment of the intervention's impact on dietary quality based on the results of two phone surveys conducted in August and October 2020. Immediate impacts of the intervention indicate an improvement in women's dietary diversity scores by half a food group out of 10. At baseline, 44% of women were likely to have consumed inadequately diverse diets; results indicate that 6% (p-value: 0.003, SE: 0.02) fewer sample women were likely to have consumed inadequately diverse diets. More women in treatment villages consumed pulses, nuts, eggs and Vitamin A-rich foods daily than in control villages. In response to economic shocks related to COVID-19, households in the treatment villages were less likely to reduce the quantity of meat and fish consumption than in control villages. The long-term impacts of the intervention need to be continuously evaluated.
The rapid rise of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar
Belton, Ben; Win, Myat Thida; Zhang, Xiaobo; Filipski, Mateusz J.. 2021
Belton, Ben; Win, Myat Thida; Zhang, Xiaobo; Filipski, Mateusz J.. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in the role of mechanization in agricultural development. This literature has given rise to debates over the design of institutions and policies to facilitate accelerated mechanization, the role of outsourcing services in overcoming problems of access to machinery, and questions regarding the future of smallholder agriculture. We contribute to these debates using two pairs of complementary demand side (farm household) and supply side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys, implemented in Myanmar in 2016 and 2017 across two major agro-ecological zones. Our analysis provides evidence that extremely rapid agricultural mechanization took place during the period of political and economic reforms from 2011 to 2020. In both zones surveyed, use of machinery for land preparation, harvesting, and threshing was close to scale-neutral due to a dynamic outsourcing services market. Rather than representing a single transformational change, mechanization’s broad appeal to farm households results from an accumulation of incremental, overlapping, complementary advantages. These include labor savings, reduced drudgery, convenience, increased speed and timeliness of operations, improved ability to manage weather-related risks, and reduced loss of grain during harvesting. We provide examples of policies on trade, finance, and land tenure that contributed to this transformation with practical implications for ongoing policy debates on mechanization in other countries, and suggest some generalizable lessons.
Immediate impacts of COVID‐19 on female and male farmers in central Myanmar: Phone‐based household survey evidence
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai; Wang, Michael. 2021
Ragasa, Catherine; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai; Wang, Michael. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This article provides evidence of the immediate impacts of the first months of the COVID‐19 crisis on farming communities in central Myanmar using baseline data from January 2020 and follow‐up phone survey data from June 2020 with 1,072 women and men. Heterogeneous effects among households are observed. Fifty‐one percent of the sample households experienced income loss from various livelihood activities, and landless households were more severely affected by the crisis, mainly because of lost farm and nonfarm employment and negative impacts on rural enterprises. Women and men in these landless households were equally engaged and affected by lower wages or more difficulties in finding farm work; fewer women were engaged in nonfarm work, but almost all of them lost such nonfarm wage employment. Women in landless households are also particularly vulnerable in terms of worsened workload and increased tension in the household during COVID‐19. Landed households were also affected through lower prices, lower demand for crops, and difficulties in input access. Women and men differ in levels of stress, fear, and pessimism regarding the effects of COVID‐19. In most households, there were no signs that household task‐sharing and work balance improved, and no clear shift in intrahousehold relations was observed.
PRCI trade flow analysis training: Lecture 6: Analyzing trade flows in Myanmar using BACI dataset
Diao, Xinshen. East Lansing, MI 2021
Diao, Xinshen. East Lansing, MI 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Trade flow among the countries determines the economic benefits countries gain from trade. For many Asian developing countries, agricultural and food trade is an important engine for agricultural growth. The ability to use trade flow data for analyses is important for decision making related to trade policies. The training is going to be organized through a set of virtual workshop sessions. In order to prepare for the training and maximize the benefits from the online training workshop, participants are expected to read the workshop materials and get familiar with the trade datasets shared in advance.
Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's chicken and egg sector, with implications for the sustainable development goals
Fang, Peixun; Belton, Ben; Zhang, Xiaobo; Ei Win, Hnin. 2021
Fang, Peixun; Belton, Ben; Zhang, Xiaobo; Ei Win, Hnin. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Chicken and eggs make important contributions to the food and nutrition security of low-income households in Myanmar, making it important to understand the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's poultry sector.
SARS-CoV-2 wave two surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal trend analysis
Post, Lori Ann; Lin, Jasmine S.; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Micahel G.; Resnick, Danielle. 2021
Post, Lori Ann; Lin, Jasmine S.; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Micahel G.; Resnick, Danielle. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, healthcare systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence.
Impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food systems in late transforming Southeast Asia: The case of Myanmar
Boughton, Duncan; Goeb, Joseph; Lambrecht, Isabel; Headey, Derek D.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Mahrt, Kristi; Masias, Ian; Goudet, Sophie; Ragasa, Catherine; Maredia, Mywish K.; Minten, Bart; Diao, Xinshen. 2021
Boughton, Duncan; Goeb, Joseph; Lambrecht, Isabel; Headey, Derek D.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Mahrt, Kristi; Masias, Ian; Goudet, Sophie; Ragasa, Catherine; Maredia, Mywish K.; Minten, Bart; Diao, Xinshen. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The objective of this contribution is to report the initial impacts of measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic on Myanmar's agri-food system. Myanmar is one of several late-transforming low-income countries in Southeast Asia where agriculture still plays a large role in rural livelihoods, and where food prices are a key factor affecting nutrition security for poor urban and rural households. Whereas the economic impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on tourism and manufacturing were obvious to policymakers, the impacts on the agri-food system were less evident and often more indirect. This resulted in the rural sector being allocated only a very small share of the government's initial fiscal response to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19.
To correct this information gap, a suite of phone surveys covering a wide spectrum of actors in the agri-food system were deployed, including farm input suppliers, mechanization service providers, farmers, commodity traders, millers, food re
To correct this information gap, a suite of phone surveys covering a wide spectrum of actors in the agri-food system were deployed, including farm input suppliers, mechanization service providers, farmers, commodity traders, millers, food re
Agricultural value chain finance in Myanmar
Basu, Siddhartha; Oo, Khin Pwint; Aung, Lwin Lwin; Middleton, Mark; Moyes, Tom; Toth, Russell; de Brauw, Alan. Canberra, Australia 2020
Basu, Siddhartha; Oo, Khin Pwint; Aung, Lwin Lwin; Middleton, Mark; Moyes, Tom; Toth, Russell; de Brauw, Alan. Canberra, Australia 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Smallholder farmers in developing countries face substantial constraints that limit their ability to reach their production potential. Two constraints—risk exposure and limited access to liquidity—pose particular challenges. Smallholders face a wide variety of risks that constrain the choices they can make and their willingness to make investments. Limited availability of affordable credit, borrowing, and saving products poorly aligned with the needs of the agricultural sector as well as prohibitive borrowing eligibility requirements all impede farmers’ access to the liquidity necessary for investing in new, more profitable crops or technologies (International Finance Corporation, 2014). Observers have noted that a large share of long-term credit needs is not being met in Southeast Asia (Shakhovskoy and Wendle, 2013). The location of the region’s agricultural sector near some of the world’s largest consumer markets is creating new opportunities throughout Southeast Asia.
Structural change and women’s employment potential in Myanmar
Mueller, Valerie; Schmidt, Emily; Kirkleeng, Dylan. 2020
Mueller, Valerie; Schmidt, Emily; Kirkleeng, Dylan. 2020
Emigration and rising wages in Myanmar: Evidence from Mon State
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lee, Hak Lim; Hein, Aung; Nischan, Ulrike. 2019
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lee, Hak Lim; Hein, Aung; Nischan, Ulrike. 2019
Abstract | Link
Whether and how immigration affects labour markets is a hotly-debated and widely-studied topic. By contrast, the converse question of how emigration impacts labour markets in the source economy has remained largely understudied. In particular, whether outflows of labourers lead to higher wages in their home countries has only been addressed in a handful of studies. This paper contributes to filling this knowledge gap using data from Myanmar. We collected primary household data from rural Mon State, a southern state neighbouring Thailand. Analysis shows that over a quarter of the labour force is currently migrating for work. Relying on variation in local wages at the village level, regression estimates reveal a significant relationship between migration and wages of unskilled agricultural workers. We use measures of past migration in an instrumental variables framework to further show that this relationship is likely causal. Rapidly rising wages in Myanmar bring both opportunities and challenges, and carry deep consequences for the development trajectory of the country.
Emigration and rising wages in Myanmar: Evidence from Mon State
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lee, Hak Lim; Hein, Aung; Nischan, Ulrike. 2020
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Lee, Hak Lim; Hein, Aung; Nischan, Ulrike. 2020
The contested terrain of land governance reform in Myanmar
Suhardiman, Diana; Kenney-Lazar, Miles; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 2019
Suhardiman, Diana; Kenney-Lazar, Miles; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 2019
Striking a balance: Managing El Niño and La Niña in Myanmar’s agriculture
Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Thurlow, James; Vasileiou, Ioannis. Washington, DC 2019
Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Thurlow, James; Vasileiou, Ioannis. Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | Link
This report’s aim is to raise awareness on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events among Myanmar’s policy makers and stakeholders. Particularly, the aim is to guide them on preparedness and resiliency building measures. It does this by providing information on ENSO’s
social, poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Myanmar and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO’s impacts vary from region to region but tend to exacerbate current climatic trends. Myanmar’s government attempted to prepare for, and respond to, the 2016 El Niño, but capacity andorganizational constraints limited its effectiveness. Preparing for ENSO is important because of Myanmar’s low resilience to climate shocks, the importance of agriculture for the national economy, the rural and poor populations’ climate vulnerability, and the lack of research on ENSO in Myanmar.
social, poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Myanmar and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO’s impacts vary from region to region but tend to exacerbate current climatic trends. Myanmar’s government attempted to prepare for, and respond to, the 2016 El Niño, but capacity andorganizational constraints limited its effectiveness. Preparing for ENSO is important because of Myanmar’s low resilience to climate shocks, the importance of agriculture for the national economy, the rural and poor populations’ climate vulnerability, and the lack of research on ENSO in Myanmar.
Myanmar’s rural revolution: Mechanization and structural transformation
Win, Myat Thida; Belton, Ben; Zhang, Xiaobo. Singapore 2018
Win, Myat Thida; Belton, Ben; Zhang, Xiaobo. Singapore 2018
Give a man a fishpond: Modeling the impacts of aquaculture in the rural economy
Filipski, Mateusz; Belton, Ben. 2018
Filipski, Mateusz; Belton, Ben. 2018
Abstract | Link
The rapid growth of fish farming over the past three decades has generated heated debate over the role of aquaculture in rural development and poverty reduction. Central to these debates is the question of whether and how aquaculture impacts local incomes and employment, yet little empirical evidence exists on the issue. To address this question, we propose a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model which nests fish farm models within a general-equilibrium model of their local economy. The model is calibrated using primary data collected from 1102 households in Myanmar’s main aquaculture zone, representative of 60% of the country’s aquaculture farms. Using this model, we examine the impact of aquaculture on the incomes and labor market outcomes of fish farming households, but also crop farms and non-farm households in the cluster. Simulating one-acre increases in pond/plot surface we find that: (1) aquaculture generates much higher incomes per-acre than agriculture; (2) aquaculture generates larger income spillovers than agriculture for non-farm households by way of retail and labor markets; (3) small commercial fish farms generate greater spillovers than large fish farms. These results bolster the notion that fish-farming, and in particular small-scale commercial aquaculture, may have a significant role to play in rural development and poverty reduction.
Revitalized agriculture for balanced growth and resilient livelihoods: Toward a rural development strategy for Mon State, Myanmar
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Michigan State University; Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD). East Lansing, MI 2016
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Michigan State University; Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD). East Lansing, MI 2016
How did sanctions impact Myanmar?
Ajmani, Manmeet; Joshi, Pramod Kumar; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh. 2018
Ajmani, Manmeet; Joshi, Pramod Kumar; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh. 2018
Abstract | Link (37 B)
With continued international concern over the treatment of Rohingyas in Myanmar, some commentators have suggested the use of sanctions to varying degrees. This would not be the first time that Myanmar faced sanctions. The United States imposed sanctions on Myanmar in 2003 and revoked them only in 2016, and Washington has recently also begun imposing some targeted sanctions following the Rohingya crisis. In this article, we discuss the impacts and coping strategies related to the sanctions imposed on Myanmar, which lasted over a decade.
Aquaculture in transition: Value chain transformation, fish and food security in Myanmar
Belton, Ben; Hein, Aung; Htoo, Kyan; Kham, L. Seng; Nischan, Ulrike; Reardon, Thomas Anthony; Boughton, Duncan. Lansing, MI 2015
Belton, Ben; Hein, Aung; Htoo, Kyan; Kham, L. Seng; Nischan, Ulrike; Reardon, Thomas Anthony; Boughton, Duncan. Lansing, MI 2015
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