Publications

Updating yield growth rates in the IMPACT model to enhance global analysis of the future of agriculture

Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024).

IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A.

IFPRI’s research in fragile and conflict-affected settings

IFPRI’s research provides partners with support through a wide range of evidence and products: Decision-support tools spanning all phases of crisis and conflict: anticipating and preventing risks before they escalate, monitoring and responding during acute crises, and supporting long-term recovery and resilience. Context-relevant evidence on policies, programming, and interventions to address the unique challenges faced by FCAS—relevant for governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and other partners. Rapid-response policy support to address emerging challenges. Best-practice guidance for conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive policy designs.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2025 dry season and outlook for the 2025 monsoon

We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability for the 2024 and 2025 dry seasons, using data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 11 to October 26, 2025. The survey covered plots managed by 872 paddy producers.

The (un)affordability of healthy diets in South Asia and the implications for nutrition-sensitive food policies

Cost and affordability of healthy diet metrics are critically important new indicators of food insecurity, and reveal that balanced nutritious diets are relatively expensive and unaffordable for many South Asians. • The share of people unable to afford the global healthy diet in the 2018–2022 period varies between 5 percent in Bhutan to 21 to 57 percent in other South Asian countries. In total, more than 1 billion South Asians cannot afford the global healthy diet. • There are three major barriers to achieving convergence of actual diets to healthy diets: poverty (low incomes), the high cost of nutrient-dense foods, and weaker preferences for healthy foods compared with unhealthy foods. • “Healthy diet poverty” is still the main barrier for many South Asians, highlighting the importance of inclusive economic growth as well as the need to scale up nutrition-sensitive social protection with more appropriate coverage, size, nutritional adequacy, and comprehensiveness of transfer packages, and increased intensity of complementary nutrition education interventions. • High prices are problematic for some nutrient-dense foods, especially fruits, vegetables, and animalsource foods, but there is scope to reduce prices through diversified agricultural investments, improvements in transport, storage, and logistics infrastructure, and more nutritionally oriented trade policies. • As incomes in South Asia grow, so too does the preference problem: Even though many South Asians cannot afford a healthy diet, factors such as poor nutrition knowledge, convenience, taste, advertising, and status considerations also inhibit consumption of healthy diets. Nutrition education and behavioral change interventions are needed at scale, and throughout the life course, including “double duty” interventions that increase demand for healthy foods and decrease demand for unhealthy foods.

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers.

This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

Remittances in fragile and conflict-affected settings: Insights from Myanmar

Africa in global agricultural trade and food security: Recent trends

Africa’s agricultural trade was largely shaped by the colonial division of the continent in the 19th century, when the agriculture of several African regions was transformed into monocrop, export-oriented sectors that catered to the growing European demand for food, luxury products such as chocolate, and manufacturing inputs such as rubber and cotton (Bjornlund et al. 2020; Akyeampong 2017). This shift occurred at the expense of the domestic agricultural diversity and intra-African trade complementarity that had long ensured food security, and continued even after African countries gained their independence. Several African governments pursued agricultural policies similar to those of colonial times and focused on the export of a few crops to generate sufficient revenue to fund their industrialization and development plans. Between 1966 and 1973, for instance, nearly one-half of sub-Saharan African governments depended on the export of a single commodity to secure 50 percent of their export revenues (Bjornlund et al. 2020). This concentration had two negative repercussions on food security: (1) increased vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices; and (2) decreased local and traditional food production, which threatened the availability of food for the growing African population.

IFPRI strategy 2026-2030: Food policy research for a changing world

IFPRI’s Strategy for 2026–2030 reaffirms the Institute’s commitment to providing research-based policy solutions. IFPRI works with partners to use the power of policy to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods, contribute to empowerment, and promote sustainability and climate resilience, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This new strategy responds to the many challenges and opportunities emerging today, from climate change to growing inequities to digital technologies and more. It combines a proven four-pronged research and engagement approach with five research themes that reflect a systems understanding of food policies—from farm to consumer. IFPRI’s research is designed to support impact at scale through country- and region-led policies that will help to sustainably end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

Nutrition and dietary quality in Sri Lanka: Insights from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

Key findings and policy implications
• Dietary quality in Sri Lanka – defined in terms of consumption levels of different healthy food groups – falls well short of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health’s 2021 Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) targets, with clear imbalances across food groups.
• Heavy dependence on starchy staples. Starchy foods dense in calories but sparse in nutrients provide over 60% of total energy consumption, highlighting a strong over-consumption of rice.
• Low consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Intakes of fruits, dark green leafy vegetables (DGLVs), and legumes are at only about one-third of the recommended levels.
• Some households report zero consumption of healthy food groups. More than 30% of households report zero consumption of dairy foods in the past 7 days, while 15% report zero consumption of dark green leafy vegetables, and 5% zero fruit, indicating that important foods are absent from many household diets.
• Multidimensional dietary deprivation. Nearly all Sri Lankan households are deprived in at least one food group. A typical deprived household falls below the reference threshold in six to seven of eight food groups and consumes only about 37% of the recommended amounts for the foods in which consumption is lower than recommended.
• Significant dietary inequality across sectors. Dietary deprivation is most acute in the estate sector, while rural and urban areas fare moderately better.
• There is a clear need to promote healthy dietary diversification, especially higher consumption of fruits, legumes, vegetables and dairy, while moderating excess consumption of starchy staples.
• Institutionalize regular monitoring of diet deprivation, using the Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index and other dietary indicators to guide targeted nutrition interventions.
• Support further research on the drivers of dietary patterns in Sri Lanka to better understand its determinants and differences between sectors.

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Climate risks and agricultural changes in conflict-affected Myanmar

Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5,000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation.

Accessing Aswesuma: Key findings on Sri Lanka’s new social protection program from the bright 2024-25 national survey

• We use the nationally representative BRIGHT 2024-25 survey to document Aswesuma access at the national and subnational level, and among poor and food-insecure households
• At the time of the BRIGHT 2024-2025 survey, the Aswesuma program covered 29.1% of the Sri Lankan population compared to just 18.8% of the population under Samurdhi in 2016: a 10.3 percentage point improvement. However, at the time of the survey, the Aswesuma program has still not reached its target of 35% national population coverage.
• Encouragingly, the largest expansion of cash transfer access was in upland (Estate) districts, who had limited access to cash transfers under the previous Samurdhi program
• Aswesuma access among poor populations was highest in the Estate sector (56%), followed by the rural (46%) and urban populations (44%)
• Aswesuma transfers are unlikely to reduce employment or other income-generating activities among the poor, as Aswesuma cash transfers only represent 19% of the expenditures of the poorest 20% of households, and just 10% for the next poorest group.
• While Aswesuma transfers may protect households against low calorie intake (hunger), Aswesuma households still have low-quality diets, under-consuming fruits, vegetables, dairy, and legumes in particular
• Nutritional knowledge is also much poorer among Aswesuma beneficiaries than the rest of the Sri Lankan population, particularly knowledge of key micronutrient-rich foods
• These results imply the need for a wide range of policy-oriented research and follow-up surveys on drivers of access to Aswesuma, but also impacts of Aswesuma on key welfare indicators
• There is also a need to explore and improve multisectoral coordination between Aswesuma and other programs on child nutrition and development, as well as women’s empowerment.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels..
• Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025
• Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province.
• Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%).
• In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks.
• Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile.
• Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity.
• Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents.
• Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors
• Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices.
• More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Food insecurity in post-crisis Sri Lanka: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess food insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT National Household Survey data for 2024-2025, which collected data on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by the FAO.
• 32.8% of households in Sri Lanka experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in the 12 months prior to the survey, with 29.6% classified as moderately and 3.2% classified as severely food insecure. In contrast, food insecurity was just 12% in the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES), such that food insecurity has almost tripled since the 2022 economic crisis.
• A very high 54.5% of Estate households (households that reside in housing on an estate/plantation) experienced food insecurity (43.2% moderate, and 11.4% severe), compared to 35.3% of urban and 31.8% of rural households. Eastern (39.1%), Uva (38.5%), and Southern (38.1%) provinces recorded the highest food insecurity rates.
• Dry-zone households show slightly higher moderate and severe insecurity (34.6%) than inter-mediate (31.1%) and wet zones (24.6%).
• Households dependent on informal employment are more than twice as likely to report food in-security (41% moderate, 5% severe) compared to formal employment households (18% moderate, 1% severe).
• Fishing households are the most food insecure across all livelihoods with 58% experiencing moderate or severe insecurity, including 10% reporting severe food insecurity. Households de-pendent on construction (41%), agriculture (38%), textiles/artisans (35%), manufacturing (29%), food and beverage preparation (27%) and services (23%) also reported high food insecurity.
• Splitting by wealth quintiles, the poorest 20% of households in Sri Lanka have a food insecurity prevalence of 45% including 10% who are severely food insecure. Food insecurity declines as wealth increases but is still high for the second (34%) and middle quintiles (25%).
• The FIES-based indicator reports much higher food insecurity in 2024 (32.8%) than the WFP’s alternative CARI method of estimating food insecurity (16%).
• FIES-based measures can support more frequent monitoring of food insecurity in Sri Lanka via phone surveys and help assess the impacts of programs such as Aswesuma.

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025.
• Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks.
• The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone.
• Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers.
• Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income.
• Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA).
• Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country.
• Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent.
• Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks.
• Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Key Findings
• Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water.
• Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity.
• Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households.
• 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households.
• Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones.
• Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households.
• Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar

The livestock sector in Myanmar represents a significant component of the national economy, contributing approximately 6 percent to the country’s GDP. Beyond its economic role, the sector provides critical livelihood opportunities for rural households and underpins the supply of animal-source foods (ASF), which are essential for enhancing dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes. A resilient and efficiently functioning livestock sector also generates important multiplier effects, contributing to poverty reduction, employment creation, and overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2024). This note summarizes recent structural and market developments in Myanmar’s livestock industry and examines their implications for ASF price dynamics.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2025

Rice prices in September 2025 declined nationally, falling by 8 percent year-on-year and 5 percent compared to the previous month. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest. Prices either stabilized or declined across most states and regions in the country. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram rising this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year – e.g. pork rose by 55 percent – due to rising production costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, quality concerns, import restrictions, and disruptions in border trade, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

Information delivery in times of crisis: Evaluating digitally-supported agricultural extension in Myanmar

Agricultural extension can have direct and important impacts on vulnerable populations, strengthening both rural livelihoods and urban food security through technology adoption and increased agricultural production. Digitally-supported extension utilizing mobile phones can be a cost-effective method for delivering information to farmers. However, different digitally-supported extension delivery mechanisms may have differential impacts on farmer knowledge and behavior, especially (i) in the face of new and emergent threats to farm production, and (ii) in crises or violent conflict when trust in outside information is low and conventional extension channels are disrupted. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate two digitally-supported extension designs—direct SMS and a novel hybrid lead-farmer-supported SMS method—in delivering fall armyworm management guidance to maize farmers in Myanmar after a military coup. Both approaches improved farmer knowledge. There is suggestive evidence that the lead-farmer-supported group spent more on pesticides and hired labor compared to the control group and used pesticides more effectively in damage control than the SMS group.

Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Nearly one quarter of all Sri Lankans are multidimensionally poor, and nearly one half are multidimensionally vulnerable.
The multidimensionally poor are deprived in 45% of the weighted poverty indicators, while the multidimensionally vulnerable are deprived in 37% of the weighted vulnerability indicators.
Estate areas have the highest rates of multidimensional poverty (63%) and vulnerability (83%), but most of the multidimensionally poor (77%) and vulnerable (79%) live in rural areas because nearly 8 out of 10 Sri Lankans live there.
Central province has the highest multidimensional poverty rate (38%), while Northern (75%), Eastern (65%), and Uva (60%) provinces have the highest multidimensional vulnerability rates.
Western province has one of the lowest multidimensional poverty rates (17%) and the lowest multidimensional vulnerability rates (35%).
The main sources of multidimensional poverty are health deprivations and standard of living (assets and basic services) deprivations.
The main sources of multidimensional vulnerability are shocks, unproductive debt, poor health, and inadequate schooling.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka:
The government of Sri Lanka should consider using multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures to re-assess district-level poverty for the first-stage allocation of Aswesuma resources.
Refinements and/or extensions of these multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures could prove useful for assessing potential policy levers for reducing current poverty and the vulnerability of households to future poverty.

Agroecology and Integrated Rice– Fish Systems: Pathways to Food and Nutritional Security in Eastern India

Integrated Rice Fish Systems (IRFS) offer a viable substitute for rice monoculture. They efficiently use the rice field ecosystem’s inherent productivity and available resources to provide the farming community with better economic and nutritional gains. IRFS adoption remains poor in Eastern India, despite favorable geographic conditions, natural resource availability, traditional knowledge, necessity for economic growth, and preference of rural communities for a rice and fish-based diet. To investigate whether agroecology (AE) could accelerate an IRFS-based transition towards food and nutritional security (FNS), this review of 194 scientific articles on IRFS from 2004 to 2024 documented the AE traits of IRFS and their relevance to addressing FNS. The current IRFS of Eastern India were assessed, first through a rapid review process to identify their qualitative traits consistent with AE. Next, we evaluated IRFS’ impact on FNS. In total, IRFS has shown 52 traits relevant to AE principles and that address FNS. Among 13 AE principles, seven have been considered primary impact creators of FNS. Impact may be accelerated with strategies such as crop diversification, mixed crop-livestock systems, and farmer-to-farmer networks. Fish play a significant role in IRFS by preserving ecological and socioeconomic equilibrium, supporting livelihoods, income, and community engagement. In Eastern India, an analysis of five distinct IRFS types identified qualitative features that could support a maximum of 10 relevant AE principles, but for which pertinent empirical evidence was lacking. Although IRFS could potentially boost smallholder income, FNS, and overall productivity, Eastern India would need to address seven significant challenges, including initial investment costs, vulnerability to natural disasters, hilly terrain, loss of indigenous fish varieties, environmental impacts of inputs, land-use change, limited technical knowledge and financial constrains among the farming communities. AE frameworks can support scaling up IRFS adoption and diffusion through a holistic approach to performance evaluation and creating appropriate strategies and guidelines.

Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This Research Note presents results from an August 2025 phone survey of 227 agricultural input retailers – who provide agricultural inputs and informal credit to farmers – in Myanmar’s major agro-ecological zones.
Key Findings
• Input sales declined sharply in the 2025 monsoon relative to 2024. Fewer retailers sold inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, and aggregate sales for those who did sell declined by 31 percent for inorganic fertilizer and 10 percent for pesticides.
• The decline is not solely due to supply shortages: smaller areas planted, weaker farm profits, and conflict have dampened demand, while climate change and the 2025 earthquake add to input market stress. Two-thirds of retailers cite lower input demand from climate change in the past three years, and earthquake impacts – while more localized – disrupted market access and areas planted.
• Transport remains the dominant business disruption. Even with a slight drop in overall reported disruptions compared to 2024, transport problems – higher costs, checkpoints and roadblocks – still dominate. Long input supply chains dependent on imports and flowing through Yangon mean that checkpoints and higher costs compound as inputs reach rural farmers.
• Farmer finances are stressed, especially in rice-dominant areas. Farmers are asking for and taking more credit from input retailers. This likely reflects tighter liquidity following the recent global rice price decline, which has reduced incentives and profitability for monsoon paddy.
• Credit provision is expanding but adding risk. More retailers are providing credit to farmers and sourcing their inputs on credit from suppliers. Yet, two-thirds of retailers that provided credit in 2024 still have unpaid debts from farmers, raising the risks of cascading financial stress.
• Measures to ease transport constraints, stabilize access to imported fertilizers and pesticides, and expand formal credit options for both farmers and retailers would help sustain this essential link in the agrifood system.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Is subjective wellbeing too subjective? The (large) impact of randomized placement of happiness and worry questions in a national survey of crisis-affected Myanmar

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – August 2025

- Rice prices in August 2025 declined nationally, falling by **6% year-on-year** and **2% month-on-month**. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon. Prices either stabilized or declined across all states and regions, **except in Shan (North)**, where rice prices increased and are currently the highest in the country.

- Export crop prices diverged: **Green gram** and **maize** increased this year due to strong international demand. **Black gram** and **pigeon pea** declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India.

- Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year: **Pork** rose by **68%**, driven by rising production costs. **Fish** prices increased amid strong export demand.

- Multiple risks lie ahead that may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security: Falling international rice prices, Ongoing conflict, Quality issues, Import restrictions, Disruptions in border trade

Tractor service providers in Myanmar: Early insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a July–August 2025 phone survey of 401 tractor service providers (TSPs)—who play a vital role in enabling timely land preparation and planting— offering early insights into the 2025 monsoon season.

Key Findings
• Acres prepared by TSPs declined by 12 percent compared to the previous year (11 percent in the Dry Zone, 17 percent in the Delta), largely reflecting weaker rice price incentives in the Delta and insecurity in the Dry Zone.
• Lower demand for services was reported by 55 percent of TSPs compared to the previous year, and 40 percent faced operating restrictions, mainly due to securityrelated movement constraints – including new restrictions in Ayeyarwady.
• Nominal service charges rose by an average of 16 percent from the previous year, driven by rising costs of fuel, repairs, and operators, along with reduced availability of these inputs.
• Most TSPs (87 percent) extended credit to their clients, usually without interest, making them an important source of informal credit for farmers.
• Cash flow problems affected 31 percent of TSPs, driven by declining revenues (50 percent) and rising operating costs (65 percent). Many coped by borrowing or selling assets. With high inflation, service charges likely failed to rise in real terms, adding to the financial pressures they faced. Recommended Actions
• De-risk credit for mechanization services by sharing repayment risks or expanding access to affordable credit for farmers, reducing the financial burden on TSPs while maintaining access to services. • Improve mobility and security for TSP operations through greater transparency at checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads in conflict-affected areas.
• Stabilize fuel and machinery costs and availability by facilitating imports, easing access to foreign exchange, and strengthening distribution networks to reduce operating pressures on TSPs.
• Support training and retention of machine operators to address widespread shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity, ensuring service quality and machine upkeep.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Analyzing Early Childhood Development (ECD) in Yangon and rural Ayeyarwady: October - November 2023

KEY FINDINGS
• Support for learning: 79 percent of children received four or more stimulating activities, but only 20 percent had three or more books; fathers’ engagement with children (30 percent)
lags behind mothers (81 percent).
• Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI): the standardized score in the study sample was 58.4, which is lower than scores reported in similar studies from India
(70.0), Tanzania (64.0), and Armenia (81.8)
• Household inequalities: Asset-rich, food-secure households show higher ECD scores; severe food insecurity lowers scores by ~2 points.
• Conflict and shocks: Migration and physical insecurity reduce ECD scores by 0.5-1.0 points.
• Parental influences: Fathers’ education boosts ECD outcomes; maternal depression and low aspirations for girls reduce ECD outcomes.
• Care quality: Inadequate care reduces ECD scores by 1.3 points; stunting lowers ECD scores by 0.8 points, while access to books and ECE increases ECD scores by 0.7 points.

2024 IFPRI A-133 (Uniform guide)

We have audited the financial statements of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which comprise the statements of financial position as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, the related statements of activities, functional expenses, changes in net assets and cash flows for the years then ended, and the related notes to the financial statements.

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Inception Report of Advancing Agricultural Transformation and Market Integration in the ASEAN and BIMSTEC Regions

The Policy Round Table and Inception Workshop, held over two days in Jakarta, Indonesia during 4-5 August 2025, brought together national partners from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and the Philippines; officials from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD); representatives from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Secretariat; policymakers; researchers; and development practitioners from ASEAN and BIMSTEC countries and secretariat to chart the way forward for the second phase of the Agricultural Transformation and Market Integration (ATMI-II) project. This event marked a milestone in regional cooperation by bringing together ASEAN and BIMSTEC under the ATMI-II framework through a network of policy advisors and analysts (NePAA). The collaboration aims to translate policy dialogue into tangible outcomes, with NePAA serving as a platform for sustained engagement, capacity building, and evidence-based policy dialogue. Building on the success of the first phase of ATMI (ATMI-I), this initiative under NePAA expands its geographic and thematic scope to examine transformation driven by value chain transformation and market integration through new partnerships and global value chains (GVCs). ATMI-I surpassed traditional conceptions of transformation to examine it through crop diversification, productivity, and related aspects. This new phase aims to mutually strengthen the institutional capacity of selected ASEAN and BIMSTEC countries (the Philippines, Viet Nam, and Thailand, and Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal, respectively) to formulate and implement inclusive, sustainable, and climate-resilient agrifood system policies.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – July 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
Rice prices in July 2025 declined nationally, falling by 6 percent year-on-year and 1 percent compared to last month. However, notable price increases were observed in the past month in Kachin (+9 percent), due to road closures, and Kayin (+9 percent), due to flooding.
Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India.
Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year, led by pork (up 67 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Fish prices increased in July compared to the previous month, driven by bad weather that prevented many offshore fishing vessels from operating.
Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and natural hazards, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

The emerging one-stop shop in agricultural value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include:
1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016.
2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013.
3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains.
4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services.
5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions.
6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers.
7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge.
8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers.
9. Policy Implications:
• The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns.
• The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit.
• The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides.
• Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

Yangon Peri-urban Livestock Survey 2019

The Yangon Peri-urban Livestock Survey, conducted in 2019, sampled commercial livestock farms within a 100 km radius of central Yangon. In the absence of any publicly available registry of livestock farms, a sample frame was developed by analyzing satellite images to identify the location of poultry-fish farms. A complete listing of livestock farms was conducted in all selected villages. The minimum size for inclusion of poultry farms in the survey was set at 500 chickens per farm, as the survey was designed to capture information on commercial farming operations. All farms in selected villages at or above this threshold were selected with 100% probability. The survey questionnaire was designed to collect detailed information on farm production practices and production economics. Interviews were conducted face to face with farm owners by trained enumerators on the respondents' farms. The final dataset is comprised of data from 513 farms, of which 423 chicken farms.

Yangon Peri-Urban Poultry Farmer Phone Survey 2020

The Yangon Peri-Urban Poultry Farmer Survey, conducted in 2020, assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poultry production. This phone-based survey was carried out in six rounds: the first four rounds were conducted biweekly in June and July 2020, while the fifth and sixth rounds took place in August and November, respectively. The survey focused on a subsample of 269 chicken farms, comprising 190 broiler farms and 79 layer farms, from the 2019 Yangon Peri-Urban Livestock Survey. This subsample included all broiler and layer farms from the original survey that were reachable by phone and consented to participate. Among the surveyed farms, 74% of the broiler farms and 52% of the layer farms were integrated with fishponds. The questionnaire gathered data on farm operational status, business operations, and business sentiment.

Livelihoods and welfare: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (October – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024, with a recall period covering July to December. It builds on seven rounds implemented since December 2021. This report presents key findings on the livelihood and welfare dynamics during the second half of 2024.

Key Findings:
Between 2023 and 2024, household welfare measured by median real household income per adult equivalent declined slightly by 0.8 percent, but real income in 2024 is 15.8 percent lower than two years ago.
The poverty headcount rate rose to 70.5 percent in the second half of 2024, slightly lower than 71.7 percent in 2023 but significantly higher than 65.2 percent in 2022. Wage-earning households remain the most vulnerable, with the lowest median real daily income and the highest poverty levels, particularly in conflict-affected states such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah.
Urban poverty increased by 6.9 percentage points over the past year and 15.2 percentage points over the past two years, while rural poverty fell by 4.3 percentage points in the past year and rose by 1.5 percentage points over two years.
Falling wages and access issues were key challenges for wage and salaried workers while high input costs and low supply affected enterprises and crop producers. Market access and transportation issues were challenges for crop sales.

Recommended Actions:
Facilitate safe and productive migration opportunities and strengthen remittance systems to enhance household resilience and keep families out of poverty, as remittance income reduces the likelihood of poverty by 20 percentage points.
Establish and expand social protection systems and safety nets to support vulnerable households, addressing the welfare impacts of escalating conflict, macroeconomic challenges, and the lack of critical state-provided services.

Remittance trends in Myanmar: January - June 2024

Remittances have emerged as an important source of income for households in post-coup Myanmar. This paper utilizes data from the seventh and fourth rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) to analyze remittance trends between January and June 2024 with trends from July to December 2022. These two rounds are compared because they both contain detailed questions on remittances.

Between January and June 2024, 16 percent of households received remittances from at least one member who was residing overseas or in a different state or region. This comprises nine percent of households receiving remittances from migrants outside of Myanmar and eight percent of households receiving remittances from migrants within Myanmar. Around 12 percent of households received remittances from a single migrant and four percent of households received remittances from two or more members. In any three-month period between January-June 2024, more households in Kayin, Mon, and Tanintharyi received remittances than households in other states/regions.

Among households that received remittances from within Myanmar, they received an average of MMK 173,768 per month (about 49 USD). Households that received remittances from outside of Myanmar received around MMK 499,386 per month (about 141 USD), significantly higher than the amount from migrants within Myanmar. Reliance on remittances among recipients has grown since 2021. Remittances made up 33 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2022, compared to 45 percent of household income between January and June 2024. Finally, budget share of international remittances increased from 15 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2024 to 26 percent between April and June 2024, underscoring the growing importance of remittances from abroad for household welfare in Myanmar.

Monitoring individual migration in Myanmar: December 2021 - June 2024

Drawing on data from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), conducted between December 2021 and June 2024 with over 12,000 respondents per round, this report examines individual migration, migration in which one or a few household members leave the household. Over the two-and-a-half-year period from December 2021 to June 2024, an estimated 9 million household members aged 15 and older—17 percent of the total population and 28 percent of the adult population—migrated from their households. During this time, the states of Kachin, Kayin, and Mon reported the highest migration rates, with over 35 percent of the adult population migrating.

In January through June 2024, nearly nine percent of households reported sending migrants. However, the proportion of individuals migrating within Myanmar for work declined, while more individuals migrated for reasons such as marriage, education, or safety. Additionally, it is estimated that six percent of households had members migrate abroad to evade conscription laws. Urban households and those in Yangon were particularly likely to send members abroad to avoid conscription.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024.

El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region.

El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance.

Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds.

As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods.

Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities.

The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level.

Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change.

Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth.

Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used.

Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions.

Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today.

The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

Rice prices declined nationally, falling by almost 20 percent year-on-year, with sharp drops in Kayah and Kayin, but significant increases in Shan (East). Rice prices are lowest in secure, major rice-producing areas and highest in most conflict- and earthquake-affected regions. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged, led by beef (up 47 percent) and pork (up 64 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand and a seasonal fishing ban. Multiple risks lie ahead, including the aftermath of the March earthquake, falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and uncertain monsoon season production, all of which may undermine farm income and food security.

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea's vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea's vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods.

Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas.

The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG's vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on agricultural indicators including crop production and sales, input use, crop marketing, farm and livestock assets, and farm services. The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS is a sub-sample survey that includes farming households from MHWS. There are five Rounds of MAPS. MAPS Rounds 1, 3, and 5 were conducted between January and March 2022 and 2024 and collect recall data on monsoon production. MAPS Round 2 and 4 were conducted between June and September 2022 and 2023 and collect recall data on dry season production (pre/post monsoon season).

MAPS Round 5 consists of 11 modules (A-K) that are each included in the clean dataset and unique by household ID (hhid). Modules A, B, and J are introductory and closing modules that only include information on the call and confirmation of demographic information connected to MHWS. The remaining modules provide data on farmer demographics and agricultural production and marketing.

Module C consists of background and demographic information. This includes data on farmer demographics along with farm area and crops grown. Module D provides data on rice production and sales for monsoon 2022 and 2023, including rice variety, amounts produced and sold, and farmgate prices. Module E contains similar information to Module D but pertaining to pulses and oilseeds.

Module F consists of data on farm input use including purchased inputs, mechanization, labor, and the effect of natural shocks. Module G presents information on crop marketing and Module H provides data on farm and livestock assets. Module I contains data on farm services including agricultural extension, credit, mobility issues in the community, travel times to access services, contract farming, crop residues, and changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices. Module K contains information on changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar, 2021-2024: Findings from eight rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), Round 8

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS),a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,058 households, was implemented between October, 2024 and December, 2024. The objective of the survey was to collect data on a wide range of household and individual welfare indicators including wealth, livelihoods, unemployment, food insecurity, diet quality, health shocks, and coping strategies in a country exceptionally hard hit by conflict, severe economic collapse, and several damaging waves of COVID-19. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative.

Global rice price declines and expected effects on monsoon paddy farming: Insights from key informants

This brief draws on interviews with 51 agro-input retailers across 10 states and regions to assess how falling international rice prices may affect monsoon paddy cultivation in their communities.

Key Findings:
In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024.
Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export).
According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier.
In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season.
Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 - especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years.

Recommended Actions:
To ensure adequate incentives for paddy farmers, the dual exchange rate system should be revised to give exporters—and, by extension, farmers—fairer and more predictable returns.
Barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—such as roadblocks, restrictive regulations, poor transportation infrastructure, and limited access to fuel and electricity—should be addressed to narrow the growing gap between producer and consumer prices.

Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), Round 7

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,800 households, was implemented between April 2024 and June 2024. The objective of the survey was to collect data on a wide range of household and individual welfare indicators including wealth, livelihoods, unemployment, food insecurity, diet quality, health shocks, and coping strategies in a country exceptionally hard hit by conflict, severe economic collapse, and several damaging waves of COVID-19. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – May 2025

The rapidly evolving agricultural and food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic, and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Community and household shocks and coping strategies: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024. This round follows seven previous rounds carried out since December 2021 and reflects conditions during July – December 2024. This report presents updated insights on the conflict, climatic, service, and economic shocks households faced, as well as the coping mechanisms they employ in response. Security conditions were difficult throughout the recall period. Seventeen percent of households reported feeling insecure in their communities, while 19 percent reported low levels of trust. Crime and violence affected 17 percent and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Insecurity remained highest in Kayah, Chin, and Kachin, while Rakhine became more insecure and isolated. Lawlessness was also widespread: 17 percent of households reported gambling and 14 percent reported drug use in their communities, especially in urban areas. Thirty-five percent of households express concerns over conscription, particularly in urban centers like Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, as well as states like Shan and Rakhine. Additionally, 13 percent of respondents reported feeling unsafe while moving around and carrying out everyday tasks in their communities, and 3 percent reported risks of kidnapping. Climatic shocks further compounded hardship. Nineteen percent of farming households experienced climatic shocks, with severe flooding reported by 45 percent of households in Kayin, 35 percent in Kayah, and 36 percent in Rakhine. Intense winds affected 14 percent of households in Chin. These events, like conflict, have contributed to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and services, further deepening vulnerability. Service disruptions further undermine wellbeing. Among households connected to the national power grid, 78 percent experienced daily power cuts lasting at least one hour. In urban Rakhine, households face up to 16 hours of outages daily. Internet access was limited for 55 percent of households, with near-total internet blackouts in Rakhine and Kachin, and over 30 percent without access in Sagaing and Kayah. Although school enrollment and access to medical services rose modestly, it remained low in conflict-affected areas, especially in Rakhine. Economic pressures continue to mount. Food inflation reached 39 percent between September and December 2024. Prices rose sharply for leafy greens, potatoes, and chicken. Although rice prices also increased, their contribution to overall food inflation was the lowest since 2022, at 19 percent. Petrol prices rose by 7 percent in the quarter and 54 percent year-on-year. Non-food essentials such as soap (25 percent increase), paracetamol (26 percent), and toothpaste (128 percent) also saw steep price increases. Households have resorted to increasingly desperate measures to cope. By late 2024, only 20 percent of households had any cash savings or bank deposits – just 7 percent in Kayah. Migration remains a key strategy, with about 10 percent of households reporting a migrant in Q4 2024. Borrowing played a central role: 64 percent of loans came from informal sources like friends and relatives, and were largely used to cover food, health, and daily expenses. Amid these challenges, 52 percent of households reported giving to social services and one in four provided direct assistance to vulnerable neighbors or local food initiatives. However, if shocks continue to intensify, households’ ability to cope may further erode, leaving many without the resources needed to meet even basic needs.

Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan

Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.

Food avoidance taboos during breastfeeding are widespread and associated with large declines in maternal dietary diversity in Myanmar

Background
Maternal food avoidance practices during pregnancy and breastfeeding have been documented in several Asian countries, but their prevalence and impacts on dietary diversity are not well quantified.

Objectives
This study: (1) assessed the prevalence of beliefs around maternal food avoidance during breastfeeding in Myanmar; (2) explored the correlates of women’s food avoidance beliefs as well as mother’s stated rationales for avoiding specific foods; and (3) assessed how minimum dietary diversity (MDD-W) of mothers changed from pregnancy to postpartum/breastfeeding.

Methods
We added a novel nutrition module to a nationally representative survey (N=12,353) in Myanmar to estimate the prevalence of beliefs around maternal food avoidance during breastfeeding and re-surveyed a subsample of mothers (N=155) to understand avoidance of specific foods. We then used a high-frequency panel of mothers in Yangon (N=3,541) to assess how MDD-W changed from pregnancy to postpartum/breastfeeding using mother fixed effects regressions.

Results
40 percent of adult women in Myanmar believe breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one food group that nutritionists would typically define as a healthy (e.g. vegetables, fruits). Regression analysis indicated these beliefs were less prevalent among women with more education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers. Mothers rationalized food avoidance by referring to a variety of perceived maternal and child health risks. MDD-W of mothers in the Yangon panel fell by 43 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, including significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups. MDD-W remained significantly lower up to six months after birth than during pregnancy.

Conclusions
Food avoidance taboos during breastfeeding pose a potentially serious risk of micronutrient deficiencies for mothers and infants and warrant more extensive monitoring in nutrition surveys and more research on how to redress these nutritionally harmful beliefs and practices.

Restoring livelihoods after the 2025 Myanmar earthquake: Pre-crisis baseline for recovery planning

On March 28, 2025, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, causing extensive
destruction and compounding an already fragile humanitarian situation driven by conflict, economic instability, and prior natural disasters. This assessment examines pre-earthquake livelihood conditions across the most severely affected areas—Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, Nay Pyi Taw, and Shan State—to provide a baseline for recovery planning focused on restoring economic resilience.
Prior to the earthquake, household livelihoods varied significantly across the earthquake hit
regions. Farming and livestock production dominated in Shan and Sagaing, where the earthquake primarily affected rural areas, whereas non-farm businesses and salaried employment were more common in Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw, where the earthquake impacted predominately urban areas. Wage labor, both farm and non-farm, supported a significant share of households, but was associated with the highest rates of income-based poverty, reflecting the insecurity of casual and seasonal employment. Income-based poverty was widespread, affecting 69 percent of households in earthquake-affected areas.

Food value chains: Transformations in low- and middle-income countries

Food value chains (FVCs) play a critical role in food systems by linking from agricultural input providers to farmers and producers to consumers. Over the past 50 years, the economic, demographic, and policy context of FVCs in low- and middle-income countries has changed enormously. This chapter discusses major phases and revolutions that shaped the growth, structure, and importance of FVCs to economies, employment, and diets, as well as policy research issues and contributions, and looks ahead to key trends that will continue to shape FVCs.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Fragility and conflict: Addressing crises and building resilient food systems

More than ever before, hunger and malnutrition are concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected areas around the world. This chapter reflects on the evolution of food policy research conducted in these areas over the past 50 years and looks ahead at how policy solutions will need to evolve to address the critical challenges that fragility and conflict present for building resilient food systems.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Tenure: Policy research on resources, rights, and equity

Secure tenure of land and natural resources is critical for ensuring equitable, efficient, and sustainable production of food and resilient rural livelihoods. This chapter examines foundational concepts and key lessons from research on tenure, including how different forms of tenure affect investment in production and resource management, and identifies priorities for further study, policy, and practice.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: East and Southeast Asia [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past half-century, the food systems of East and Southeast Asia have been shaped by economic growth and structural transformation, extreme weather events, and unique agricultural landscape and value chain dynamics. This chapter examines how aligning research outputs, financial programs, and regional cooperation initiatives with national policy frameworks in the region has led to improvements in food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in the region’s countries, though important challenges remain. Looking ahead, food systems transformation in the region will require a multisectoral approach that includes cross-cutting foresight and integrated approaches that combine disruptive technologies, participatory governance, and scalable solutions supported by sustainable financing mechanisms.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Impact: Assessing the outcomes of IFPRI's research

Food policy research plays an essential role in helping to achieve food security for all, promote sustainable and healthy diets, build efficient markets, transform economies, and strengthen food systems institutions and governance. This chapter examines IFPRI’s impacts over the last 50 years through providing independent, high-quality evidence to inform policy options, programs, and investments.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Combine harvester outsourcing services and seasonal rural non-farm employment in Myanmar

Prior research on mechanization outsource services has not explored seasonal variations in drivers and outcomes of adoption by smallholders. These omissions are important because seasonality of crop cultivation may influence intensity of demand for machines, while seasonality of demand for non-farm labor may influence the availability and cost of agricultural workers and the opportunity costs of on-farm self-employment. We analyze seasonal correlates of combine harvester outsource service use in Myanmar. Surprisingly, adoption is not associated with lower labor costs or higher net margins from paddy cultivation. Rather, using combines releases family labor into more remunerative dry season non-farm employment.

Wholesalers and the transformation of Myanmar's maize value chains

Wholesalers of agricultural crops have historically received limited attention in the literature on agricultural development, which has a strongly productivist focus. When wholesalers are considered, they are often framed as exploitative, taking advantage of information asymmetries, market failures, and unequal power relations to extract heavy surpluses from farmers. However, there is a growing appreciation that wholesalers may play important roles in facilitating agricultural development and rural transformation. This paper evaluates wholesaler conduct and performance using a survey of 218 maize wholesalers in 12 of the major maize-growing and trading townships of South Shan State, Myanmar and the cities of Lashio and Muse in North Shan. Hybrid maize emerged very rapidly in Myanmar over the past two decades to become a major cash crop, supplying domestic animal feed mills and becoming one of Myanmar's most important exports to China and Thailand. Wholesalers have been central to the development of this supply chain and the sector. Contrary to recent literature from Myanmar that has cast maize wholesalers as exploitative, the survey finds that the rapidly growing wholesaler segment of the maize value chain is highly competitive, rapidly changing with respect to technology, and functions efficiently. Farmers obtaining maize inputs from wholesalers in the form of tied output credit sell their maize at prevailing market rates. The emergence of clusters of maize wholesalers and allied actors such as third-party logistics services occurred spontaneously and symbiotically with the expansion of hybrid maize cultivation, and with each set of actors essential to the emergence of the others.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets.

Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets.

The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes.

The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment.

Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

Key Messages
 The PNG 2023 Rural Household Survey collected detailed consumption and expenditure data, which allows the first cost of basic needs poverty assessment since the 2009/10 Household Income Expenditure Survey. However, it is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative.
 43% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the standard cost of basic needs poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to acquire calorie adequate diets while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 64% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the healthy diet poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to meet healthy dietary guidelines while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 The healthy diet poverty line incorporates a higher share of nutrient dense food groups (vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, etc.) and thus is about 1/3 more costly than the standard poverty line.
 On average, households within the survey sample over-consume staples and fats compared to healthy guidelines and under-consume vegetables, fruits, animal source foods, and nuts/pulses.
 Smaller households and households with greater production assets (land and labor), education completion, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Among households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e., cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) only cocoa farming households have significantly higher consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Targeted safety net and community asset building programs could reduce rural poverty by increasing agriculture productivity, supporting rural-urban market linkages, improving demand for rural goods, and incentivizing off-farm employment.
 Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households and facilitating access to primary education could improve rural incomes in the short and long term, respectively.

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Synthesis report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping of Southeast Asian countries formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam joined this association in 1984. ASEAN expanded to 10 countries between 1995 and 1999 by extending memberships to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. These 10 Southeast Asian countries entered into the trade agreement to ensure the free flow of goods, including agricultural products. Agreements related to services and investment were also signed to enhance economic cooperation and to develop an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003 helped liberalize the intra-ASEAN agricultural trade, which grew steadily during the period under review. Further, the dynamics of intra ASEAN trade show that after the food price crisis of 2007/2008, intra-ASEAN agricultural trade increased sharply, which reflects ASEAN’s efforts to create a food security action plan aimed at improving sustainable food trade among ASEAN members.