Journal Articles

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

In good times and in bad, in sickness and in health: The continuous rise in adoption of labour-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar

Wholesalers and the transformation of Myanmar's maize value chains

Wholesalers of agricultural crops have historically received limited attention in the literature on agricultural development, which has a strongly productivist focus. When wholesalers are considered, they are often framed as exploitative, taking advantage of information asymmetries, market failures, and unequal power relations to extract heavy surpluses from farmers. However, there is a growing appreciation that wholesalers may play important roles in facilitating agricultural development and rural transformation. This paper evaluates wholesaler conduct and performance using a survey of 218 maize wholesalers in 12 of the major maize-growing and trading townships of South Shan State, Myanmar and the cities of Lashio and Muse in North Shan. Hybrid maize emerged very rapidly in Myanmar over the past two decades to become a major cash crop, supplying domestic animal feed mills and becoming one of Myanmar's most important exports to China and Thailand. Wholesalers have been central to the development of this supply chain and the sector. Contrary to recent literature from Myanmar that has cast maize wholesalers as exploitative, the survey finds that the rapidly growing wholesaler segment of the maize value chain is highly competitive, rapidly changing with respect to technology, and functions efficiently. Farmers obtaining maize inputs from wholesalers in the form of tied output credit sell their maize at prevailing market rates. The emergence of clusters of maize wholesalers and allied actors such as third-party logistics services occurred spontaneously and symbiotically with the expansion of hybrid maize cultivation, and with each set of actors essential to the emergence of the others.

Endogenous technologies and productivity in rice production: Roles of social instability in Myanmar since 2021

Despite technologies' critical roles in agricultural productivity, evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity, often due to a lack of data in fragile states. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers before and after a military coup in Myanmar in 2021 that led to a significant increase in conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events including those in adjacent townships significantly changed the rice production function in both factor-neutral and non-neutral ways. Specifically, increased violent events have been generally associated with downward factor-neutral shift in production function, and more importantly, increased output elasticity to agricultural capital (equipment) owned (in other words, reduced output resilience against capital ownership shocks). Our evidence also suggests that this has been led partly through reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity even with limited capital ownership by substituting it with human capital and skills. Our results consistently hold for both panel and cross-sectional production functions across various specifications and particularly in Lower Myanmar. Results also indicate that lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects.

Combine harvester outsourcing services and seasonal rural non-farm employment in Myanmar

Prior research on mechanization outsource services has not explored seasonal variations in drivers and outcomes of adoption by smallholders. These omissions are important because seasonality of crop cultivation may influence intensity of demand for machines, while seasonality of demand for non-farm labor may influence the availability and cost of agricultural workers and the opportunity costs of on-farm self-employment. We analyze seasonal correlates of combine harvester outsource service use in Myanmar. Surprisingly, adoption is not associated with lower labor costs or higher net margins from paddy cultivation. Rather, using combines releases family labor into more remunerative dry season non-farm employment.

Emerging outsource agricultural services enable farmer adaptation in agrifood value chains: A product cycle perspective

Outsource agricultural service enterprises emerged a century ago in high-income countries and in the past several decades in developing regions. We contribute by analyzing and illustrating the emergence of these services from the perspective of phases of the Product Cycle. These services help farmers adapt to international and domestic agrifood value chains: (1) in the commoditization phase, e.g., with rice combine harvesting services in China and Myanmar for domestic and export markets; (2) in the early product differentiation phase into quality traits, e.g., with horticultural services to Ethiopian and Indonesian farmers for urban wholesale markets; (3) in the advanced product differentiation phase into environmental traits, e.g., with A-Z services to help French farmers grow eco-labeled vegetables for supermarkets. These services addressed farmers’ shortfalls in information, skills, labor, and equipment. The services are supplied by medium/large farmers with excess capacity say of a combine; by wholesalers who want to reduce search costs and risks; by input “agro-dealers”; and by agribusinesses servicing their outgrowers. In new cases shown in France, outsource firms partner with farm input companies such as Bayer or with robot/drone companies. Governments have – and can do much more to – support the emergence of these services such as in developing regions today through: (1) promotion of a business ecosystem, based on policies of investment in hard and soft infrastructure, favoring the coadaptation of these firms with farmers’ needs; (2) policies facilitating access, such as through import liberalization, of equipment and seeds and chemicals.

A comparison between different models of delivering maternal cash transfers in Myanmar

As part of a randomized controlled trial conducted in Myanmar between 2016 and 2019, we explore the performance of a maternal cash transfer program across villages assigned to different models of delivery (by government health workers versus loan agents of a non-governmental organization) and identify key factors of success. Measures include enrollment inclusion and exclusion errors, failures in payment delivery to enrolled beneficiaries (whether beneficiaries received any transfer, fraction of benefits received, and whether there were delays and underpayment of benefit amounts), and whether beneficiaries remained in the program beyond eligibility. We find that women in villages where government health workers delivered cash transfers received on average two additional monthly transfers, were 19.7 percent more likely to receive payments on time and in-full and were 14.6 percent less likely to stay in the program beyond eligibility. With respect to the primary health objective of the program - child nutrition -, we find that children whose mother received cash by government health workers were less likely to be chronically malnourished compared to those whose mother received cash by loan agents. Overall, the delivery of cash transfers to mothers of young children by government health workers outperforms the delivery by loan agents in rural Myanmar. Qualitative evidence suggests two key factors of success: (i) trusted presence and past interactions with targeted beneficiaries and complementarities between government health workers’ expertise and the program; and (ii) performance incentives based on specific health objectives along with top-down monitoring. We cannot exclude that other incentives or intrinsic motivation also played a role.

“It doesn’t matter at all—we are family”: Titling and joint property rights in Myanmar

Many policy makers and academics striving for more gender equality consider joint property rights as preferable over sole rights, since the latter often discriminate against women. Several governments in low-, middle- and high-income countries have therefore imposed joint rights through modifications of statutory law or mandatory joint property registration. We first discuss a general theoretical framework of determinants of property rights with a focus on jointness and the interplay between statutory law, customary law and religious norms, as well as the importance of gendered customs, norms and perceptions around household, family and community arrangements. We then also relate this specifically to the case of Myanmar—based on literature and original qualitative data collected with men and women across all four agro-ecological zones in rural Myanmar. We find equal customary and statutory joint property rights regime upon marriage where inheritance rights are not different for men and women, but only one name is generally recorded on land use certificates. A strong sense of “togetherness”, including a custom of income pooling and rare occurrence of divorce, limits the rationale of marital partners to exercise rights solely rather than jointly. Nevertheless, which household members’ name is on a document is important for accessing credit or engaging with officials and government authorities, and strong patriarchal norms guide official and administrative procedures. Whereas short-term impacts of sole land titling seem limited, the extent to which sole or joint titling might affect gender equality in the longer term remains a topic of future research.

Changing fish trade practices in Myanmar’s rapidly transforming food system

Wholesale markets, wholesalers, and processors play critical but underappreciated roles in shaping food systems. Most conventional research on food provisioning analyzes value chains in terms of their structure, conduct, and performance. We contend that a practices lens can illuminate how food systems are produced and reproduced through the emergence of new wholesale practices relating to quality, trust, and risk, and provide more nuanced understandings of how markets and trading shape and are shaped by food system transformations. Applying a practices lens to the analysis of these changes can help identify new ways of steering food systems toward more sustainable outcomes.

Double jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'état and poverty in Myanmar

Myanmar experienced multiple COVID shocks as well as a military takeover in February 2021. Impacts on household poverty remain uncertain, however, because large-scale in-person surveys were impossible during the pandemic and heightened internal conflict. We use ex ante simulation models and phone survey evidence to estimate the poverty effects of these shocks and identify factors correlated with them. While each approach has limitations, and cannot explicitly validate each other, they both indicate rising rural and urban poverty and capital-depleting coping mechanisms. Wider use of simulation modeling could help mobilize social protection faster than waiting for survey results in emergencies.

Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting “hidden hunger” during economic crises.

Food systems transformation, animal-source foods consumption, inequality, and nutrition in Myanmar

This study traces the consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) during a period of rapid economic change and food system transformation in Myanmar. We use data from two nationally representative consumption surveys conducted in 2010 and 2015 and food composition tables to estimate the contributions of ASF to estimated average requirements (EARs) of key nutrients among population subgroups differentiated by geography and economic status. We find: (1) Little change in the average quantity of ASF consumed per individual, but substantial changes in the composition of the ASF consumed. (2) Increasing rural–urban and income-linked inequality in quantities of ASF and associated nutrients consumed. (3) Declines in the adequacy of intakes of five out of eight micronutrients (calcium, iron, zinc, thiamine, vitamin B12) and small increases in two (selenium and vitamin A), due to the changing composition of ASF; most importantly, reductions in the supply of diverse aquatic foods from capture fisheries and increasing availability of intensively reared chicken. (4) Elevated levels of ASF-derived total fat and sodium consumption among better-off consumers, suggesting an emerging triple burden of malnutrition. We review the implications of these results for food security, nutrition-sensitive policies and interventions beyond Myanmar.

Empowering rural women through gender and nutrition education amid the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from Myanmar's Central Dry Zone

The COVID-19 pandemic had negative impacts on nutrition and strained intrahousehold relations, particularly among poorer households. Social protection programs intended to mitigate these impacts mainly operated through handing out cash or in-kind items to vulnerable households. Yet social and behavior change communication (SBCC) intervention on gender and nutrition could be another option. We assess the impact of a nutrition and gender SBCC intervention implemented as a cluster-randomized controlled trial in 30 villages in Myanmar's Central Dry Zone during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We rely on data from a baseline survey implemented in February 2020 and a phone survey implemented in February–March 2021. Two indicators of women's empowerment―input in productive decisions and access to and input in decisions over credit―improved, indicating that SBCC interventions can contribute to changing gendered perceptions and behaviors. Some empowerment indicators did not change, indicating it may take more time to change deeply ingrained gender norms—including tolerance toward intimate partner violence. In treatment villages, women's dietary diversity scores were higher by half a food group out of 10. More women in treatment villages consumed nuts, milk, meat or fish, and vitamin A–rich foods daily than in control villages.

Gender gaps in land rights: Explaining different measures and why households differ in Myanmar

Measuring and understanding gender differences in property rights is key to informing policy decisions and guiding investments aimed at fostering gender equality. However, there are a myriad ways of assessing property rights. Firstly, we assess which indicators to use and why it matters, focusing on rural Myanmar. Myanmar provides an interesting setting, as a large part of the population customarily follows joint property rights in marriage and upon dissolution of marriage and inheritance. However, documented property rights are in the household head's name – usually a male household member. We find that capturing de facto transfer rights is essential, but understanding discrepancies between reported transfer rights and documented rights will be key to policymakers. Capturing agricultural decision-making should remain a priority for agricultural projects. Second, we perform household- and intra-household level analyses to explore why we find joint land rights in some, but not all, households; and why some household members have less land rights than others. A common property rights regime positively reinforces women's land rights, but incompletely so. Within households, a person's role in the household, age, and key life cycle events such as parenthood and marriage are key determinants of having land rights.

Agricultural value chains in a fragile state: The case of rice in Myanmar

The large majority of extreme poor in the world lives in fragile states. Yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. This paper analyzes Myanmar’s rice value chain – its most important staple and biggest value chain – during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. It relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. Despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup – most importantly linked to banking and transport – rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to such major shock. While processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare losses of almost USD 0.5 billion for the country. Using a market-pair regression method, we further find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. Despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions and facilitating cheap and safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and therefore improve welfare.

Small fish consumption in rural Myanmar

Assessments of fish consumption are based primarily on data from household surveys that do not capture information on the intra-household distribution of the size or species of fish consumed. Such studies can yield partial or misleading information about the adequacy of aquatic food consumption. We address this gap by focusing on individual-level fish consumption within the household, using data from a survey conducted in a rural part of the Ayeyarwady Region in Myanmar—an area with high levels of fish consumption. We disaggregate fish consumption by the gender of household members and by the quantity, species, and size of fish eaten, estimating quantities of fish consumed using models for reference, to identify gendered patterns of fish consumption at the intrahousehold level. We find higher average levels of fish consumption than reported in previous consumption surveys in Myanmar. Moreover, small fish are consumed more frequently than larger-sized fish. The popularity of small fish species highlights the continued reliance of survey respondents on wild fish stocks, despite all surveyed households also practicing small-scale aquaculture. The average consumption of fresh fish reported by women was 36% lower than that reported by men. Men were more likely to eat large fish species, but women ate more small fish, which may contain higher levels of micronutrients vital for addressing nutrient deficiencies.

A prepandemic nutrition-sensitive social protection program has sustained benefits for food security and diet diversity in Myanmar during a severe economic crisis

Background: One-third of preschool children in Myanmar were stunted in 2015–2016, and three-quarters of children 6–23 mo had inadequate diet diversity. In response, a large-scale nutrition-sensitive social protection program was implemented over 2016–2019. In 2020, however, Myanmar’s economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and harder still by a military takeover in 2021. Objective: The objective of this study was to examine whether former beneficiaries of this program experienced better food security, food consumption, and diet diversity outcomes in the wake of major economic shocks. Methods: In a previous cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted over 2016–2019, pregnant women and their children aged <2 y were randomly assigned to either: 1) CASH; 2) CASH + social and behavioral change communication (SBCC); or 3) a control group. Subsamples of these former participants were then resurveyed 10 times from June 2020 to December 2021 during Myanmar’s protracted economic crisis. Randomized treatment exposure was used in a regression analysis to test for postprogram impacts on Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, household food consumption, and maternal and child diet diversity. We also examined the impacts on household income as a secondary outcome and potential impact pathway. Results: Both intervention arms reported lower food insecurity, more frequent consumption of nutritious foods, and more diverse maternal and child diets compared with households in the control group. However, the improved dietary outcomes were larger for mothers and children exposed to CASH+SBCC compared with CASH, as was their monthly household income. Conclusions: The findings suggest that a program combining cash transfers with nutrition-related education can yield sustained benefits 1–2 y after the program was completed. This strengthens the evidence to support the expansion and scale-up of nutrition-sensitive social welfare programs to redress chronic malnutrition and enhance nutritional resilience in the face of a severe economic crisis.

Effects of COVID-19 restrictions on mechanization service providers and mechanization equipment retailers: Insights from phone surveys in Myanmar

Agrifood sector mechanization service providers (MSP) and mechanization equipment retailers (MER) have increasingly become the providers of mechanical technologies for smallholders in developing countries, including Myanmar. Evidence remains scarce on the effects of COVID‐19 on these MSPs and MERs. This study provides insights into the effects of COVID‐19 restrictions on MSPs and MERs in Myanmar, using unbalanced panel data from five rounds of phone surveys. Direct responses to COVID‐19 involving movement restrictions, market disruptions, and growing financial challenges had significant negative effects on revenue prospects, service delivery, and sales of machines and equipment. Negative revenue prospects during a particular period can further hurt revenue prospects in subsequent periods. This is consistent with the hypotheses that MSPs who had incurred high sunk costs in machines can engage in more desperate and, thus, potentially suboptimal business practices to recover the sunk cost. Overall, policies to minimize movement restrictions and various financial struggles and mitigate any pessimism at the beginning of the production season are all important to make sure MSPs and MERs continue to function effectively under COVID‐19.

Can phone surveys be representative in low- and middle-income countries? An application to Myanmar

For decades, in-person data collection has been the standard modality for nationally and sub-nationally representative socio-economic survey data in low- and middle-income countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic rendered in-person surveys impossible and unethical, the urgent need for rapid monitoring necessitated researchers and statistical agencies to turn to phone surveys. However, apart from pandemic-related factors, a variety of other reasons can render large segments of a population inaccessible for in-person surveys, including political instability, climatic shocks, and remoteness. Such circumstances currently prevail in Myanmar, a country facing civil conflict and political instability since the February 2021 military takeover. Moreover, Myanmar routinely experiences extreme weather events and is characterized by numerous inaccessible and remote regions due to its mountainous geography. We describe a novel approach to sample design and statistical weighting that has been successfully applied in Myanmar to obtain nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey data. We use quota sampling and entropy weighting to obtain a better geographical distribution compared to recent in-person survey efforts, including reaching respondents in areas of active conflict. Moreover, we minimize biases towards certain household and respondent characteristics that are usually present in phone surveys, for example towards well-educated or wealthy households, or towards men or household heads as respondents. Finally, due to the rapidly changing political and economic situation in Myanmar in 2022, the need for frequent and swift monitoring was critical. We carried out our phone survey over four quarters in 2022, interviewing more than 12,000 respondents in less than three months each survey. A survey of this scale and pace, though generally of much shorter duration than in-person interviews, could only be possible on the phone. Our study proves the feasibility of collecting nationally and sub nationally representative phone survey data using a non-representative sample frame, which is critical for rapid monitoring in any volatile economy.

Hybrid livelihoods: Maize and agrarian transformation in Southeast Asia's uplands

Hybrid maize farming has boomed across upland Southeast Asia in the past three decades. Recent studies suggest that the boom has resulted in diverse outcomes across countries. In Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos, the introduction of hybrid maize has often initially been linked to rising incomes and living standards, with little loss or concentration of landholdings. In contrast, recent studies from Myanmar argue that exploitative trader-farmer credit relations are driving rapid agrarian differentiation and dispossession. We analyze patterns of agrarian change associated with hybrid maize farming in southern Shan State, Myanmar, using data from a representative survey of 1562 rural households. Widespread farmer engagement in maize cultivation has contributed to deepening petty commodity production and some economic differentiation, but with little dispossession or negative impacts on food security. Credit provision by traders may benefit some larger farmers but does not actively penalize smaller producers. Hybrid maize is a ‘moderate risk, moderate reward’ crop that households integrate strategically into a broader patchwork of subsistence farming, higher risk cash crop production, and a growing mix of off-farm activities. Employment in non-farm enterprises, salaried work, and migration have significant potential to modify trajectories of differentiation associated with agriculture.

Food prices, processing, and shocks: Evidence from rice and COVID-19

Rice is the staple food for about half of the world's population and mills are the essential processing link between farmers and consumers, making rice milling one of the most important agro-processing sectors globally. This paper assesses changes in rice and paddy prices, and processing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic shock through the lens of rice mills in Myanmar. Our data, collected through telephone surveys with a large number of medium- and large-scale rice millers in September 2020, reveal significant disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, including transportation restrictions, employee lay-offs, and reduced operations relative to normal times. However, milling margins, and paddy and rice prices were mostly stable, showing only minor increases compared to 2019. Rice prices increased most for the varieties linked to export markets, though the gains were mostly passed through to farmers as higher paddy prices. Similarly, higher rice prices achieved by modern mills—due to extra processing—were mostly transmitted to producers. Our results also highlight the major importance of byproducts—broken rice and rice bran—sales to overall milling margins as byproduct sales allowed mill operators to sustain negative paddy-to-rice margins.

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Phone-survey evidence from rural and urban Myanmar in 2020

Myanmar first experienced the COVID-19 crisis as a relatively brief economic shock in early 2020, before the economy was later engulfed by a prolonged surge in COVID-19 cases from September 2020 onwards. To analyze poverty and food security in Myanmar during 2020 we surveyed over 2000 households per month from June–December in urban Yangon and the rural dry zone. By June, households had suffered dramatic increases in poverty, but even steeper increases accompanied the rise in COVID-19 cases from September onwards. Increases in poverty were much larger in urban areas, although poverty was always more prevalent in the rural sample. However, urban households were twice as likely to report food insecurity experiences, suggesting rural populations felt less food insecure throughout the crisis.

Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19

Can nutrition education mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on dietary quality? Cluster-randomised controlled trial evidence in Myanmar's central dry zone

We evaluate the immediate impact of a nutrition and gender behaviour change communication on dietary quality in rural communities in Myanmar and assess whether the communication helped mitigate the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on dietary quality. The intervention was designed and implemented as a cluster-randomised controlled trial in which 15 villages received the intervention and 15 control villages did not. The intervention was implemented from June to October 2020. This paper provides an assessment of the intervention's impact on dietary quality based on the results of two phone surveys conducted in August and October 2020. Immediate impacts of the intervention indicate an improvement in women's dietary diversity scores by half a food group out of 10. At baseline, 44% of women were likely to have consumed inadequately diverse diets; results indicate that 6% (p-value: 0.003, SE: 0.02) fewer sample women were likely to have consumed inadequately diverse diets. More women in treatment villages consumed pulses, nuts, eggs and Vitamin A-rich foods daily than in control villages. In response to economic shocks related to COVID-19, households in the treatment villages were less likely to reduce the quantity of meat and fish consumption than in control villages. The long-term impacts of the intervention need to be continuously evaluated.

Immediate impacts of COVID‐19 on female and male farmers in central Myanmar: Phone‐based household survey evidence

This article provides evidence of the immediate impacts of the first months of the COVID‐19 crisis on farming communities in central Myanmar using baseline data from January 2020 and follow‐up phone survey data from June 2020 with 1,072 women and men. Heterogeneous effects among households are observed. Fifty‐one percent of the sample households experienced income loss from various livelihood activities, and landless households were more severely affected by the crisis, mainly because of lost farm and nonfarm employment and negative impacts on rural enterprises. Women and men in these landless households were equally engaged and affected by lower wages or more difficulties in finding farm work; fewer women were engaged in nonfarm work, but almost all of them lost such nonfarm wage employment. Women in landless households are also particularly vulnerable in terms of worsened workload and increased tension in the household during COVID‐19. Landed households were also affected through lower prices, lower demand for crops, and difficulties in input access. Women and men differ in levels of stress, fear, and pessimism regarding the effects of COVID‐19. In most households, there were no signs that household task‐sharing and work balance improved, and no clear shift in intrahousehold relations was observed.

The rapid rise of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar

The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in the role of mechanization in agricultural development. This literature has given rise to debates over the design of institutions and policies to facilitate accelerated mechanization, the role of outsourcing services in overcoming problems of access to machinery, and questions regarding the future of smallholder agriculture. We contribute to these debates using two pairs of complementary demand side (farm household) and supply side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys, implemented in Myanmar in 2016 and 2017 across two major agro-ecological zones. Our analysis provides evidence that extremely rapid agricultural mechanization took place during the period of political and economic reforms from 2011 to 2020. In both zones surveyed, use of machinery for land preparation, harvesting, and threshing was close to scale-neutral due to a dynamic outsourcing services market. Rather than representing a single transformational change, mechanization’s broad appeal to farm households results from an accumulation of incremental, overlapping, complementary advantages. These include labor savings, reduced drudgery, convenience, increased speed and timeliness of operations, improved ability to manage weather-related risks, and reduced loss of grain during harvesting. We provide examples of policies on trade, finance, and land tenure that contributed to this transformation with practical implications for ongoing debates on mechanization in other countries, and suggest some generalizable lessons.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's chicken and egg sector, with implications for the sustainable development goals

Chicken and eggs make important contributions to the food and nutrition security of low-income households in Myanmar, making it important to understand the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's poultry sector.

Impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food systems in late transforming Southeast Asia: The case of Myanmar

The objective of this contribution is to report the initial impacts of measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic on Myanmar's agri-food system. Myanmar is one of several late-transforming low-income countries in Southeast Asia where agriculture still plays a large role in rural livelihoods, and where food prices are a key factor affecting nutrition security for poor urban and rural households. Whereas the economic impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on tourism and manufacturing were obvious to policymakers, the impacts on the agri-food system were less evident and often more indirect. This resulted in the rural sector being allocated only a very small share of the government's initial fiscal response to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. To correct this information gap, a suite of phone surveys covering a wide spectrum of actors in the agri-food system were deployed, including farm input suppliers, mechanization service providers, farmers, commodity traders, millers, food re

SARS-CoV-2 wave two surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal trend analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, healthcare systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence.

Structural change and women’s employment potential in Myanmar

We use the Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey to evaluate the extent women are included in Myanmar’s dynamic transformation process and the relative barriers that prohibit their inclusion between 2005 and 2010. Women play an active role in the labor force during a period of massive structural change. Their growing importance is substantiated by their increasing placement in manufacturing jobs near and away from home. Despite their increasing labor force participation, women’s engagement in manufacturing is negatively associated with household welfare. This may be a function of a gender pay gap or reflect households’ inability to substitute the labor of women to complete specific tasks related to household production. Future investments in surveys in Myanmar will improve our ability to identify which factors systematically provide an enabling environment for female labor participation, mobility, and improvements in well-being.

Emigration and rising wages in Myanmar: Evidence from Mon State

Whether and how immigration affects labour markets is a hotly-debated and widely-studied topic. By contrast, the converse question of how emigration impacts labour markets in the source economy has remained largely understudied. In particular, whether outflows of labourers lead to higher wages in their home countries has only been addressed in a handful of studies. This paper contributes to filling this knowledge gap using data from Myanmar. We collected primary household data from rural Mon State, a southern state neighbouring Thailand. Analysis shows that over a quarter of the labour force is currently migrating for work. Relying on variation in local wages at the village level, regression estimates reveal a significant relationship between migration and wages of unskilled agricultural workers. We use measures of past migration as instrumental variables to further show that this relationship is likely causal. Rapidly rising wages in Myanmar carry deep consequences for the development trajectory of the country.

The contested terrain of land governance reform in Myanmar

State control of land plays a critical role in producing land dispossession throughout the Global South. In Myanmar, the state’s approach towards territorial expansion has driven the country’s system of land governance, resulting in widespread and systemic land grabbing. This article investigates ongoing land governance reforms as key terrains for contesting such abuses of power. Employing a relational land governance approach, we view reform processes as shaped by changing power-laden social relations among government, civil society, and international donor actors. Legal and regulatory reforms in Myanmar potentially act as sites of meaningful social change but in practice tend to maintain significant limitations in altering governance dynamics. Civil society organizations and their alliances in Myanmar have played an important role in opening up policy processes to a broader group of political actors. Yet, policies and legal frameworks still are often captured by elite actors, becoming trapped in path dependent power relations.

Give a man a fishpond: Modeling the impacts of aquaculture in the rural economy

The rapid growth of fish farming over the past three decades has generated heated debate over the role of aquaculture in rural development and poverty reduction. Central to these debates is the question of whether and how aquaculture impacts local incomes and employment, yet little empirical evidence exists on the issue. To address this question, we propose a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model which nests fish farm models within a general-equilibrium model of their local economy. The model is calibrated using primary data collected from 1102 households in Myanmar’s main aquaculture zone, representative of 60% of the country’s aquaculture farms. Using this model, we examine the impact of aquaculture on the incomes and labor market outcomes of fish farming households, but also crop farms and non-farm households in the cluster. Simulating one-acre increases in pond/plot surface we find that: (1) aquaculture generates much higher incomes per-acre than agriculture; (2) aquaculture generates larger income spillovers than agriculture for non-farm households by way of retail and labor markets; (3) small commercial fish farms generate greater spillovers than large fish farms. These results bolster the notion that fish-farming, and in particular small-scale commercial aquaculture, may have a significant role to play in rural development and poverty reduction.