Research Notes

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – September 2024 survey round

In September 2024, we surveyed 256 rice millers from 12 states and regions across Myanmar to assess the impacts of the monsoon floods and the political crisis and related disruptions.
This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.

Key findings
 Flooding has significantly affected monsoon paddy production, with 74 percent of millers reporting flood-related impacts, particularly in the main rice-growing regions. Consequently, 63 percent of millers expect local production to decline compared to last year, with 73 percent of millers in flood-affected areas anticipating reduced output.
 Labor shortages have emerged as a critical challenge for milling businesses, with 53 percent of millers identifying it as a significant issue and 7 percent considering it the most severe disruption.
 Mills continue to face ongoing difficulties accessing electricity and fuel, alongside rising transportation costs. Moreover, reports about disruptions in banking and finance have doubled compared to last year, indicating increasingly widespread and persistent challenges.
 Mill-level paddy and rice prices continued to rise in September 2024. Rice prices increased by 17–19 percent compared to one year earlier, while paddy prices rose by a more modest 8 percent on average. This discrepancy suggests that higher milling margins account for a significant share of the price increases.
Looking forward
 There will be lower paddy production from the 2024 monsoon season due to floods and pests, which is expected to further drive-up rice prices for consumers. Rice prices have already risen rapidly over the past three years, raising serious concerns about affordability and food security.
 Labor availability is a rising concern and rising costs of labor and fuel together with volatile byproduct markets and other business disruptions have likely contributed to rising milling margins, with a smaller share of rice price increases passed through to producers. This trend underscores the impacts of business disruptions and the need for stability.

Food avoidance among breastfeeding mothers in Myanmar and its impacts on maternal dietary quality

Key Findings
• This study designed and analyzed two new surveys in Myanmar. The first one is the fifth Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) round conducted from April to June 2023, in which 12,953 respondents were surveyed, including 5,512 women of reproductive age (15-49). The second is the Rural Urban Food Security Survey conducted in 2020, in which respondents were women who were pregnant in round 1 (June-July 2020) in Yangon and participated in at least five of those six rounds.
• Forty percent of all Myanmar women aged 15-49 believe that breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one healthy food, with vegetables the most widely cited food to be avoided, followed by fruits, fish, meat and beans/nuts.
• Beliefs were prevalent throughout Myanmar’s diverse regions and across both genders, but more common in majority Buddhist regions (and less common in majority Christian regions).
• Beliefs in food avoidance during breastfeeding were less prevalent among women with more formal education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers.
• Mothers in the Yangon panel saw minimum dietary diversity of women (MDD-W) fall by 46 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, stemming from significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups.
• MDD-W recovered somewhat over the second to fifth months after birth but was still significantly lower up to the sixth month after birth.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural equipment supply chain – November 2024

Agricultural Equipment Supply Chain – November 2024 This research note presents the impacts of recent economic disruptions on Myanmar’s agricultural equipment supply chain, based on a phone survey of agricultural equipment vendors (AEVs) and repair service providers (RSPs) conducted in November 2024. Key Findings • Businesses face multiple disruptions, including transport restrictions, high costs, fluctuating exchange rates, and limited electricity and fuel. Safety concerns during transport were reported by 64 percent of RSPs and 26 percent of AEVs. • Availability of agricultural machinery has declined significantly from last year, with reductions in two-wheel tractors (84 percent), four-wheel tractors (78 percent), and threshers (75 percent) reported by AEVs. This decline is likely driven by reduced demand, mobility restrictions, and high transportation costs. • Availability and sales of spare parts and attachments are relatively stable, reflecting a shift towards maintaining and upgrading existing machinery. Combine harvesters and threshers show some resilience, potentially linked to agricultural labor shortages. • Despite significant disruptions, most businesses report financial stability. While revenues have declined, businesses show resilience to recent shocks. RSPs appear to be benefiting from the growing demand for repair and maintenance services. Recommended Actions • Implement training programs that improve the availability and skills of mechanics to support RSPs as farmers focus on maintaining and upgrading their machinery. • Train operators in proper use and maintenance practices, helping to extend the lifespan of machinery and reduce repair needs. • Facilitate the expansion of domestic manufacturers of spare parts and attachments to improve the quantity, quality and variety of parts and attachments available. • Ensure consumers have access to credit with favorable terms, enabling them to purchase machinery and spread repayment over time in line with economic conditions. • Extend and expand the expedited approval of import licenses, and reduce other import barriers, for agricultural equipment and raw material needed by domestic producers to ensure stable supply and support of local manufacturing capabilities.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2024 survey round

Agricultural input retailers are crucial to Myanmar's agri-food system, providing farmers with essential fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and other inputs needed for production. Since input use at the farm level significantly impacts yields across major food crops, economic disruptions to the input retail sector can have profound effects on rural household welfare and food security. Given this importance, regular monitoring surveys of input retailers are essential to track sector health, anticipate potential disruptions, and ensure timely support for sustaining agricultural productivity.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – June 2024 survey

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in June 2024 with a sample of 187 active traders in 12 states and regions.

Key Findings:
-Cellphone network challenges rival transportation challenges in both their prevalence and impact, affecting more than half the traders and doubling since 2023.
-More than 30 percent of traders reported being affected by exchange rate volatility and inflation, export/import challenges, and local and regional conflict. Notably, most encountered these shocks in April, May, and June 2024.
-Reported credit challenges are at their highest points in the past three years. The proportion of traders offering credit to farmers has decreased, and for some, the credit terms have shifted to higher interest rates and extended loan durations.
-Prices for the six most common commodities in our data have increased markedly in the past two years. Trader sales prices of rice were three times higher in June 2024 than in April 2022.
-Margins in June 2024 were 0.8 points higher than in April 2023. Rising trading margins could reflect increasing transport or transactions costs in trading, and are generally a negative sign for agrifood system efficiency.

Looking Ahead:
-Communication challenges in cellphone networks together with widespread transport disruptions could lead to inefficiencies in spatial arbitrage and widening gaps between consumer and producer prices.
-Credit challenges are increasing and rising prices will place greater financial stress on the farmers and traders alike.
-More than 40 percent of traders consider the general inflation and exchange rate volatility as a negative shock that reduces their business revenues. This survey was conducted before a large currency devaluation in informal markets and widespread flooding in Myanmar impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. These shocks add additional stress to the food system.

Maize residue management in Myanmar

This note provides an overview of maize residue management practices in Myanmar based on interviews conducted in June 2024 with a sample of 599 maize farmers in the primary maize growing region.
Key Findings
 Burning maize residues is not the most common practice in Myanmar, and the share of farmers burning fell from 44 percent in 2013 to 34 percent in 2023 as farmers have adopted alternate approaches, such as retaining residues in the soil.
 The broader maize sector evolution over the last decade has brought several changes, some of which likely increase the relative benefits of burning – e.g., decline in labor availability, decline in livestock ownership.
 Access to markets for maize residues has improved, though still less than one fifth of farmers can sell their maize residues.
 Soil fertility is important to farmers. Soil fertility improvement was the most common reported benefit to both burning and retaining residues. However, most farmers that do not burn disagree that soils are improved by burning, while most farmers that burn agree.
 Most farmers are aware of the human health effects of burning, but more than a quarter strongly disagree that burning residues negatively affects the health of others.
 The majority of farmers that burn agree that their community expects them to.
Recommendations
 Farmer education and extension are leading candidates to reduce maize residue burning in Myanmar. Key topics where there are evident knowledge gaps include highlighting the large relative gains in long-term soil health from retaining the residues compared to burning, and the high external health costs of burning.
 Interventions to reduce burning are critical to reducing environmental and health externalities, and in light of the planned Thai bans in the importation of maize from countries using burning as a residue management practice. However, the Thai government should adapt their strategy and consider other methods to reduce residue burning in neighboring countries including supporting education, or providing price incentives or reduced tariffs for not burning as opposed to outright bans which would likely have limited effects on burning decisions at the farm level.
 More research is needed to better understand the driving factors behind maize residue management decisions.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization Service Providers – July 2024 survey round

Agricultural mechanization service providers (MSPs) are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. These operations are essential for food production and farm income. MSPs are capital-intensive operations. The economic viability of these businesses is highly sensitive to (1) capacity utilization, which generates the cash flow needed to repay equipment loans; (2) prices of imported capital goods, including machines, equipment, and fuels; and (3) availability of machine operators, among others. Hence, the operations of MSPs are sensitive to restrictions on mobility and trade.

This Research Note focuses on the impacts of the ongoing political crisis on MSPs from the latest phone survey conducted in July 2024. This note primarily covers the activities of tractor service providers (TSPs) in the 2024 monsoon planting season and combine harvester service providers (CHSPs) that completed harvesting from the dry season. The results of previous rounds were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Research Notes 07, 12, 17, 39, 43, 59, 62, 76, 82 94, and 98. As MSP operations continue to be affected by market disruptions, understanding the situation on the ground is critical to support measures to ensure farmers’ access to MSP services.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: December 2021–June 2024

We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of households and food vendors (fielded from December 2021 until June 2024) in rural and urban areas and in all states/regions of Myanmar.

Key Findings:

 Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, diet costs rose steadily by 40 and 41 percent for healthy and common diet costs, respectively.

 The median price of rice—the major staple—increased by 54 percent between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024 and was the main driver of the 41 percent increase in the cost of the common diet.

 The most conflict-affected states suffered more from food price inflation. Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, common diet costs increased by 81 percent in Rakhine, 61 percent in Chin, and 48 percent in Kachin. In the second quarter of 2024, both healthy and common diet costs were highest in Rakhine followed by Chin.

 Over the full period of surveys (December 2021–June 2024), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 121 percent and the common diet by 131 percent; rice and onion prices more than tripled; pulse, chicken, leafy green, and banana prices at least doubled; and all other food prices increased by at least 50 percent.

 Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, purchasing power of daily urban construction wages relative to healthy and common diet costs declined by about 14 percent. The purchasing power of rural agricultural wages to healthy and common diet costs fell by about 4 percent. Adjusted for the cost of one kilogram of rice, urban construction wages fell by 25 percent and rural agricultural wages fell by 14 percent.

 Food costs outpaced wages, particularly in urban areas, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar. However, nominal wages rose at a faster pace between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022 and 2023, slowing the pace of declining real wages.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Monsoon Season 2024: Agricultural input markets, credit and extension services

This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the monsoon season 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 4,663 crop farmers undertaken in January 22 to March 7, 2024.
Key Findings
 Fertilizer use rates and profitability for rice production reached their highest levels since before the coup during the 2023 monsoon season, driven primarily by higher paddy prices. Application rates for monsoon season paddy increased to 66 kg/acre from 54 kg/acre in the previous monsoon. Urea application increased from 33 kg/acre to 38 kg/acre, and non-urea fertilizers (mainly compound 15-15-15) increased from 21 kg/acre to 28 kg/acre.
 The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.3 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 2.0 at farmer reported urea prices. These ratios imply a return on investment in urea fertilizer for the farmer of 130 percent at input dealer prices and 100 percent at average famer-reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm.
 Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters was similar in monsoon 2023 compared to a year earlier, but costs increased dramatically. Plowing with a four-wheel tractor, for example, increased by 42 percent to 60,000 MMK/acre. The cost of combine harvesting averaged 110,000 MMK/acre. Timeliness of access was likely reduced as fuel shortages increased, especially in conflict areas.
 The share of farmers using saved paddy seed increased from 56 percent to 61 percent nationally for use in the 2023 monsoon season compared to a year before. There were important differences across states and regions. The share of farmers purchasing seed in conflict areas fell more than the national average; by 11 percentage points in Mandalay, 7 percentage points in Rakhine, 6 percentage points in Tanintharyi, and 5 percentage points in Mon State.
 Eighty-four percent of farms hired labor in the 2023 monsoon season, slightly higher than the previous monsoon season. Male wages rose to 8,800 MMK/day in the 2023 monsoon season from almost 7,400 MMK/day in the previous monsoon, an increase of 19 percent.
 Despite large nominal increases, real wages for men and women nevertheless fell as the cost of a typical daily diet which rose 37 percent over the period February 2023 to March 2024.
 Access to internet or mobile phone services increased by 3 percentage points from 15 percent to 18 percent, and access to private sector services increased by almost 3 percentage points from 18.0 percent to 20.6 percent. Increases in private extension access favored producers of cash crops, notably betel leaves, cotton, rice and maize. Internet or mobile phone services were sought out by producers of cotton, rice, betel leaves and pulses, again primarily cash crops.

Recommendations
 Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile phone extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff.
 The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication. As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important. Further sharp depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat will lead to increases in prices for the coming post-monsoon season.

Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers in Yangon and Ayeyarwady, October–November 2023

In this research note, we report results on the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers of young children using data collected in Yangon and Ayeyarwady as part of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS). This in-person study, conducted between October–November 2023, surveyed mothers who were registered from antenatal clinics in peri-urban Yangon in early 2020. In this latest survey round, we revisited this sample of mother-child pairs to gather anthropometric data (along with other nutrition-relevant indicators). We successfully collected anthropometric data for 646 mothers.

Stunting and wasting rates among pre-school age children in Yangon and Ayeyarwady, October–November 2023

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 and the military takeover of the democratically elected government in early 2021 has largely prevented the implementation of in-person surveys necessary for the collection of anthropometric data. To redress this knowledge gap, we implemented an in-person survey of mothers (caregivers) and young children in urban and peri-urban Yangon and rural Ayeyarwady in October and November 2023. This in-person 11th round of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) involved data collection on a wide range of socioeconomic indicators, but also child anthropometric outcomes such as length and weight. In this study, we report results for height-for-age z scores (HAZ) and weight-for-height z scores (WHZ) relative to international reference standards, as well as stunting (HAZ < -2) and wasting (WHZ < -2). Because of high and rising rates of overweight/obesity among adults in the RUFSS survey, we also examined the number of children were overweight (WHZ > +2) and mildly overweight (+1

Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets – March 2024 survey round

This research note presents the results of 26 rounds of interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas throughout Myanmar conducted between June 2020 and March 2024. The purpose of the surveys is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. The focus of this research note is on changes in food prices and the cost of common and healthy diets.

Migration in Myanmar

Key Findings
• Over 1.5 years (between December 2021 and June 2023) at least 18.5 percent of the population or more than 10 million people migrated: 6.5 million individuals 15 years and older left their households and 3.1 million individuals moved together as a household or family unit.
• Fifty six percent of individuals who migrated cited employment as at least one of their drivers for migration.
• More men left their households to migrate than women. Most individuals migrated for work within Myanmar, though over time more individuals departed to find work abroad.
• In the first half of 2023, 16 percent of households received remittances from at least one member who was residing overseas or in a different state or region.
• Remittances contributed more to the household income of rural residents and the poor and were mostly used towards food purchases. Households receiving remittances had better dietary quality and were less likely to be poor.
Recommended Actions
• Set up programs that facilitate access to credit to reduce the need for migrants or households to take out high-interest loans for migration.
• Develop support programs for communities experiencing high out-migration to enhance individuals' awareness of the associated risks, processes, and job opportunities linked to migration.
• Create centers in high in-migration areas to aid migrants by providing resources, legal assistance, sustenance, shelter, and community support.
• Monitor migration and evaluate the impact of policy changes.

Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: December 2021–November 2023

We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of households and food vendors (fielded from December 2021 until November 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar.
Key Findings:
• Over the survey period (December 2021–November 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 93 percent and the common diet by 103 percent.
• After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in the latter part of 2023, resulting in a 28 and 35 percent increase in the cost of healthy and common diets in September–November 2023 compared to a similar period in 2022, when food prices were already very high.
• Prices of rice—the major staple—increased by 75 percent between October–December 2022 and September–November 2023, and were the main driver of the 35 percent increase in the cost of the common diet.
• Over the full period of surveys (December 2021–November 2023), onion prices quadrupled; rice prices more than doubled; oil and pulse prices doubled; and all other food prices increased by at least 50 percent.
• The purchasing power of daily urban construction wages relative to healthy diet costs declined by 11 percent and by 15 percent relative to common diet costs. The purchasing power of rural agricultural wages relative to the healthy diet held steady but fell by 7 percent relative to common diet costs.
• Food costs outpaced wages, particularly in urban areas, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar. However, nominal wages rose at a faster pace in 2023 compared to 2022, slowing the pace of declining real wages.
Recommended Actions
• Actions should be taken to reduce the prices of nutritious foods in a sustainable and market oriented manner.
• As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) dry season 2023: Agricultural input markets, credit and extension services

This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the post-monsoon (dry season) 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 5001 crop farmers undertaken in June – July 2023. Most farmer input use decisions were taken prior to damage inflicted by Cyclone Mocha. Key findings • Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas. • In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality. • Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm. • Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas. • Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access. • The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled. Recommendations • Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff. • The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication. • As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2023 survey round

In August 2023, we surveyed 388 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews. Key findings • Patterns of reported business disruptions show substantial improvements compared to a year ago, but limited changes since March 2023. Access to electricity remained the most common disruption and was reported to be the biggest challenge by more than half of the sample. Fuel cost, fuel access, and transportation costs were also common disruptions although they are far less common than in August 2022. • Larger mills mostly use electricity and are therefore most impacted by the persistent electrical supply issues. Yet some have expanded their power sources in the past three years by investing in electricity generators powered by husks or fuel. • Despite the challenges, milling throughput in 2023 is similar to 2022. However, paddy and rice storage volumes are significantly lower this year, while conditional average amount of credit provided to farmers increased significantly during the 2023 monsoon season. • Paddy and rice prices continued their rapid upward trajectory that began in mid-2022 and in August were 80 percent higher than one year prior and 2.5 times the price from 2021. The local Myanmar price changes are largely driven by global rice markets and foreign exchange rates. Looking forward • Recent policies to keep consumer rice prices low – including efforts to control rice prices and to limit export licensing – along with erratic foreign exchange policies can lead to increased price volatility and uncertainty for farmers, traders, millers, and exporters. If domestic paddy and rice prices fall because of these interventions, millers and farmers are less likely to recover investment costs, pay off debts, and make profits for further investment in next year’s productions.

Monitoring the agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020–August 2023

We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on largescale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until August 2023) and households (fielded in 5 periods in 2022 and 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key Findings  Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent.  After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high.  Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023.  Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.  The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages.  Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended Actions  Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.  As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2023 survey round

To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023. Key Findings • Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022. • Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022. • The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs. • Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs. • More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high. • The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels. Looking Forward • Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production. • However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons. • More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 dry season

Key Findings We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2022 and 2023, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of June 26th to July 25th, 2023. The survey covered plots of 659 rice paddy producers. It is found that: • Prices of inputs used in paddy production – fertilizer, labor, mechanization – increased between these two growing seasons by between 13 and 21 percent, on average. On the other hand, paddy prices at the farm increased by 68 percent. • Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the dry season of 2023 increased by 41 percent compared to the dry season of 2022. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 70 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased therefore much less. • Rice farmers increased input expenditures on paddy production by 50 percent compared to last year. However, larger farmers invested more and doubled input expenditures, likely attracted by the increased profits in paddy farming. • Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2023 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly larger (+1.2 percent) than in the previous dry season. Substantial declines are noted in the coastal areas (-29 percent) and the Dry Zone (-5 percent), possibly linked to impacts of cyclone Mocha. • Thirteen percent of all crop farmers reported to have been affected by the cyclone Mocha and 3 percent of the crop farmers indicated that they lost their whole dry season harvest. Almost half of the affected farmers reported that the next monsoon season would not proceed as normal, likely affecting the production of rice – and other crops – in those areas during the next monsoon season. Recommended Actions • As paddy prices have gone up significantly, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial. • The cyclone Mocha has destroyed harvests of farmers in Rakhine and part of the Dry Zone. As effects of the devastation of the cyclone will continue to be felt during the monsoon of 2023, further assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from these effects is called for. STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM RESEARCH NOTE 99 SEPTEMBER 2023

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (dry season 2023): Farm commercialization

Key Findings This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2023, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,001 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period June – July 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. Almost a quarter of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2023 dry season period. However, it was difficult to access labor for 17 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the dry season of 2023 increased compared to the same period in 2022 by 14 percent for urea, 19 percent for mechanization, and 15 and 22 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 69 percent. Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. In the case of pulses, black gram increased by 21 percent and green gram by 19 percent. In the case of oilseeds, sesame increased by 38 percent and groundnut by 33 percent.  The high price increases in the case of paddy and oilseeds – higher than input costs – reflects increased profitability for these farmers. However, that is not the case of these other crops.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Farms affected by cyclone Mocha and farms in insecure areas however reported relatively more crop sales income decreases than other farmers. Recommended Actions  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  As cyclone Mocha has reduced, among others, incomes of a large number of farmers in Rakhine and the Dry Zone, assistance of these cyclone-affected farmers is needed.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2023 survey round

A phone survey was conducted in July 2023 to understand the effects of political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs) that are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, which is the 11th in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2023 survey round

In March 2023, we interviewed more than 430 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain. Key findings  High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.  Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.  Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.  Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.  Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – April 2023 survey

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions. Key Findings • Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior. • In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022. • Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading. Looking Ahead • High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects. • For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency. • Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Monsoon 2022): Farm commercialization

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2022, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 5,000 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period February – March 2023. It is found that:

• The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling 'very insecure' or 'insecure' during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.

• Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.

• Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.

• Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).

• Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.

• Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases.

Recommended Actions

• The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.

• Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers - January 2023 survey round

A phone survey was conducted in January 2023 to understand the effects of COVID‑19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs). MSPs are crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the tenth in a series of phone surveys, and trends from earlier surveys.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar 2022: Findings from four rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

The state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022. Four percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in October/December 2022. Hunger was highest in Chin (10%), Mon (6.8%), and Kayin (6%). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4% in December 2021/February 2022 to 15.7% in October/December 2022. The shares in October/December were highest in Chin (48.3%), Kayin (23.1%), and Magway (22.7%). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6% to 25.1% over the same period with rates higher for women, especially in rural areas. Decreases in diet quality among adults is driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. More than a third of all children aged 6-23 months and 15.9% of all children aged 24-59 months have inadequate diet quality. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023

We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings  Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent.  Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023.  The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022.  Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average.  The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022.  Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions  Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.  Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs.  It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.

Promising indicators for effectively targeting the poor in Myanmar

The social protection system in Myanmar has remained at a rudimentary level for the past decade, with policies scattered and fragmented across various government departments, and serving only a fraction of the eligible population. The government allocated only 0.8 percent of its expenditure to social protection constraining its ability to expand to vulnerable groups leaving households to rely on informal forms of safety nets against idiosyncratic and covariate shocks, and life-course contingencies (Niño-Zarazúa & Tarp 2021). Only 13.8 percent of the population received any form of social protection according to the 2017 MLCS, leaving much of the poor, which is about one-third of the population, out of the scope of protection. After the military takeover in 2021, government provision of social protection faced a complete collapse with near zero allocation to the population (MAPSA 2022c). In the face of the double predicament of the COVID-19 pandemic and coup, any form of anti-poverty investment should effectively target the poor based on observable and verifiable characteristics. In this research note, we explore some promising indicators which can be used by implementing agencies to effectively target the poor. We use data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone during July and August of 2022. The survey was conducted among 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. The MHWS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The household survey questionnaire collected information on a wide variety of topics such as household composition, occupation, education, dwelling characteristics, assets, income, and agriculture.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2022 dry season and farmers’ expectations for the monsoon of 2022

Rice is an extremely important product for farmers’ livelihoods and for food security in Myanmar. Rice is the main staple, accounting for 51 and 62 percent of urban and rural calories consumed, respectively, making it crucial for food security in the country.1 Large international changes in commodity markets and twin local crises – COVID-19 and political problems due to the military take-over – have raised doubts on the performance of the agricultural sector overall and the rice sector in particular. The assessment on farmers’ rice productivity during the dry season of 2022 presented in this research note is based on data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) that was conducted with 678 rice producers, spread over all states/regions of the country, over the period August 2022 – September 2022. Detailed questions were asked to farmers about their background, input use and input prices, farm management practices, rice output and output prices, and natural and other shocks during the dry season of 2021 and 2022.2 This research note presents the results from that assessment.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Q3 2022): Farm commercialization

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2022. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,021 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country in Q3 of 2022. This note assesses the perceived security situation of crop farmers, agricultural input availability and prices, prices of major crops at the farm level, changes in income from crop sales, and overall crop marketing challenges.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar: Findings from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey 2021-2022

In this research note, we provide an overview of the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using a recently collected household dataset. We examine food security using a household hunger scale and a food consumption score. To examine the state of nutrition, we examine the diet quality of individuals across Myanmar for three separate but important sections of population: (1) adults (18+ years), (2) women of reproductive age (15-49 years), and (3) children (6-23 and 6-59 months). We explore these indicators using three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected over the phone in the first three quarters of 2022 – hereafter Q1, Q2 and Q3 – among over 12,000 households in 310 townships of Myanmar. MWHS is a nationally, urban/rural and state/region representative phone survey (MAPSA 2022a). We use standard food security and diet diversity measures for each of the three subpopulations to examine trends over the three rounds as well as explore heterogeneity with respect to gender, location of residence, and asset and income-based welfare indicators. We also look at disaggregated consumption of the different food groups that constitute the diet diversity measures to investigate the change in the consumption pattern of individuals. Finally, we use regression analysis to look at predictors of food insecurity and inadequate diet diversity, including household wealth and income, selfreported shocks, food prices, and household characteristics.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2022 survey round

In August 2022, we surveyed 467 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews. Key findings  Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the most significant disruption by 91 percent of millers in August 2022. Rising fuel prices and access issues afflicted smaller, local mills while larger mills were more affected by interruptions in electricity supplies.  Continuing a trend from March 2022, banking and credit disruptions were less prevalent in August. Lending and borrowing show only minor changes relative to 2021.  Average milling throughput declined by more than 20 percent compared to a year prior, and stored volumes of both paddy and rice showed similar declines.  Rice prices and milling margins increased sharply by about 40 percent compared to last year, driven by rising global prices, and, most importantly, by a rapid devaluation of Myanmar kyat. In USD terms, the price increases are more modest and closer to global changes. At the parallel (unofficial) exchange rate, prices have declined.  Prices of byproducts (in kyats) have also increased sharply from the last year, especially for rice bran which is important to the animal feed industry. Looking forward  Looking forward to the 2022 monsoon harvest and marketing season, over half of all millers expect a decline in paddy production of at least 10 percent in their townships and an additional 22 percent of millers expect a smaller decline. Just 3 percent expect their local paddy production to be higher in 2022 monsoon than in 2021.  Changes in input use (e.g., a decline in fertilizer application) are far and away the most cited reason for lower expected paddy production. Half of millers said that less favorable rainfall patterns compared to 2021 are also a factor in lower paddy production.  On top of lower reported throughput in August 2022 and lower storage volumes, a decline in monsoon paddy production would have large implications for both rural and urban households. Lower supply coupled with the continued and widespread disruptions to utilities and transport, could drive prices even higher. At the same time, unpredictable foreign exchange and export policies could make it difficult for value chain actors to anticipate supply and demand conditions, resulting in higher price volatility.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – August 2022 survey

Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

The precarious situation of agricultural wage laborers in Myanmar

To understand the effects of COVID-19, the political crisis, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural wage laborers (those workers relying on casual labor in agriculture), we rely on data from three rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey and two rounds of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey, fielded in 2021 and 2022.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – July 2022 survey round

To understand the effects of political instability, COVID-19, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 252 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in July 2022.

Myanmar household welfare survey round two: Note on sample characteristics and weighting

The second round of the MHWS was carried out between April 7th, 2022, and June 24th, 2022. In the second round, 12,142 households responded to the survey, 7,786 households were interviewed in both the first and second round, 4,356 households were added in the second round, while 4,314 households dropped out of the sample after the first round. Issues with blackouts and ongoing conflict made it difficult to collect data from rural lower-educated households. After weighting, the sample is not statistically different from the round one sample, in terms of household location, percent farming households, and percent lower-educated households.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2022 survey round

A phone survey was conducted in July 2022 to understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs), crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the ninth in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Q1 2022): Farmgate prices and marketing by crop farmers

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of output markets and crop prices in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2021. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 4,000 crop farmers in 281 townships in all states/regions of the country, over the period February 2022 – March 2022. We found that: Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before. Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent. There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent. Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2022 survey round

In March 2022, we interviewed more than 540 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain. Key findings: Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the largest disruption for more than 80% of millers in March 2022, overtaking banking disruptions which had been the largest challenge in each survey round since early 2021. Transport and fuel cost increases are also significant difficulties for modern mills. Diesel prices have more than doubled from a year ago. Paddy and rice prices were higher in March 2022 than one year prior. For Emata varieties, paddy prices increased by 14 percent and milled rice prices increased by 8 percent. However, milling margins are stable, suggesting that millers are not contributing to the escalating consumer rice prices. Total monsoon harvest season throughput declined by 15 percent on average compared to a year ago. The leading factor is likely households withholding more rice and marketing smaller volumes, though reduced milling time from electricity cuts and diesel shortages also contribute. Lower throughput and constant margins imply lower overall profitability reflected in lower average operating capital. Lower profits and heightened uncertainty over the last two years have also contributed to a sharp decline in machinery investments. Looking forward: Increasing fuel and transport costs increase distribution margins and raise consumer prices. Electricity shortages or unpredictable shutoffs for modern mills could put further upward pressure on prices by restricting the marketed supply of rice. There is a high degree of uncertainty about rice exports from the recent foreign exchange policy changes including a fixed kyat conversion rate. Access to export markets can help stabilize prices in an otherwise turbulent economy. Further, with declining miller profits, byproduct markets become even more important for financial viability and a large volume of broken rice is exported. Therefore, potential disruptions to rice exports could have adverse effects on the rice value chain. The low investment in machinery in recent years not only suggests stalled growth in the rice milling sector but also some depreciation of equipment without replacement.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – March 2022 survey

Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices. This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - March 2022

This Research Note presents the results of recent interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar as a part of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) telephone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The purpose of the food vendor component of the MHWS is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores (nominal) prices of foods and difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Understanding the rapid price increase of vegetable oils

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of the evolution of vegetable oil prices in Myanmar. Vegetable oils are an important product in the diet of Myanmar consumers and high food inflation in the country - 19 percent between December 2022 compared to December 2021 (MAPSA 2022) - is partly explained by substantial price increases for vegetable oils. The purpose of this analysis is to provide insights on what might explain the price increases of vegetable oils in local markets. To do this assessment, we rely on different secondary data sources as well as MAPSA’s food vendor survey conducted in March 2022 in all states/regions of the country. In this survey, 419 food vendors provided information on the sale of vegetable oils. We also rely on information from key informants in the sector.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – January 2022 survey round

A phone survey was conducted in January 2022 to understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs), crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the eighth in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to December 2021

Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of healthy diets - December 2021 survey round

This Research Note presents the results from ten rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. In particular, the note explores changes in food prices and their impact on the cost of common and healthy diets.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - December 2021 survey round

This Research Note presents the results from a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores COVID-19 prevention measures, changes in shopping behavior, difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises, changes in availability and prices of foods, and perceived changes in consumption.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – November 2021 survey round

Rice mills are the primary link in the rice value chain between farmers and consumers. Therefore, it is critical to monitor milling shocks as they will affect both farmers' incomes and urban rice prices. Since June 2020, we have monitored the impact of COVID-19 and political instability on rice millers in Myanmar and this is the tenth Research Note in the series. In this Research Note, we present evidence from interviews with 392 rice millers conducted in November 2021 in Myanmar’s three major rice-growing regions–Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Yangon. We present evidence of the current situation in relation to previous survey rounds, including 1) disruptions in milling caused by the political and health crises; 2) changes in operations such as throughput, paddy and rice storage, and working capital; 3) reasons for expected throughput changes in the 2021 monsoon harvest season; and 4) prices of paddy, rice, and byproducts.

Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to September 2021

Key Findings Nine rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and September 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas. Key Findings ▪ Myanmar has experienced four distinct economic shocks since early 2020. The most recent of these shocks–the spread of the Delta variant–was devastating, with 63 percent of respondents stating that at least one household member had experienced COVID-like symptoms and almost all cases occurring in the May-September 2021 third wave. ▪ 16 percent of interviewed households moved townships between their first interview and September 2021. Around two-thirds of these were from the Yangon sample. ▪ Physical insecurity has emerged as a key impact of political instability, with 53 percent of respondents in September 2021 stating they feel unsafe compared to 37 percent in May 2021. ▪ In September 2021, 48 percent of respondents cited food supply problems (compared to 32 percent in May 2021) and 41 percent cited loss of jobs or income (31 percent in May 2021). Travel restrictions are also more commonly reported. ▪ Job loss has been extremely high in 2021: 28 percent of migrants, 19 percent of urban Yangon households, and 18 percent of rural Dry Zone households reported job loss. ▪ Income-based poverty declined among Yangon households over June-September 2021 (to 44 percent) but remained high among migrants (52 percent) and rural households (58 percent). ▪ Mothers in urban and migrant samples were more likely to have inadequately diverse diets than rural mothers. In Yangon, 44 percent of mothers of young children had poor diets. We also observe very high rates of inadequately diverse child diets in all samples, but particularly a steep rise in inadequate diets between 2020 and 2021 in the rural Dry Zone sample. ▪ To cope with the crisis, households have not only cut back on expenditures but also sold assets (24 percent), taken collateral loans (14 percent), and borrowed money (71 percent) that they say will be difficult to repay. Recommended actions ▪ International donors and local NGOs/CSOs must scale up assistance to Myanmar’s poor through conditional, unconditional, and nutrition-sensitive social protection schemes for vulnerable communities. Further monitoring of the situation in Myanmar will also be essential.

Community perceptions of the economic impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID-19 Community Survey – September 2021

Key findings ▪ Ninety-two percent of urban communities and 90 percent of rural communities experienced a decline in income of at least 20 percent compared to a year before due to lower income from both non-farm employment and crop farming. ▪ Compared to data collected in 2020 survey rounds, we see a shift towards reduction in food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets in 2021. Fifty-four percent of communities reduced food expenditure to cope with declining income in September 2021, compared to 17 percent in September 2020. ▪ Twenty-seven percent of communities experienced closed banks and 12 percent of communities reported cash shortage at their local ATMs.

Community perceptions of the agricultural impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID 19 Community Survey – September 2021

Key findings Forty-two percent of farming communities experienced lower agricultural production than normal in the past 12 months, mainly due to drought and pests. Forty-four percent of farming communities reported greater difficulties in selling agricultural products than usual. Low crop price was the most frequently reported disruption. There are pressing concerns for the upcoming monsoon season harvest. Inorganic fertilizer prices are skyrocketing–compound fertilizer prices increased 56 percent in September 2021 compared to September 2020 while urea prices increased 72 percent compared to last year. About one-third of farming communities hired fewer agricultural wage workers this year compared to last year, with 46 percent reporting that this was mainly due to financial problems. For the current monsoon season, 45 percent of farming communities expect overall agricultural production will be lower than that of last year. Recommended actions Implement measures such as input subsidies, vouchers, or agricultural grants to limit the impact of the price increases of fertilizers and other inputs on agricultural production. As farming communities risk falling into vicious cycles of income loss, financial support is urgently needed to avoid long-lasting impacts of the crises on the agricultural performance of affected communities. Social protection is urgently needed in rural areas, including food/cash for work schemes to offset lower demand for agricultural labor.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Maize farmers – Monsoon season phone surveys

To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – September 2021 survey

To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – September 2021 survey round

To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – September 2021 survey round

To understand the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and political instability on Myanmar’s rice sector, we conducted a telephone survey of 388 medium- and large-scale rice millers from major rice growing regions in September 2021. This report present results from interviews conducted with rice millers from Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Yangon regions. Key findings: Banking sector disruptions remain the most significant challenge for rice millers in September 2021 (reported by 70 percent of respondents) and receiving payment for rice and making payment for paddy are among the most frequently cited disruptions. Mills are in an increasingly difficult financial situation. Working capital dropped by 24 percent compared to September last year and fewer mills sold milling byproducts–rice bran and broken rice–which are important for profitability. Overall, 68 percent of millers expect monsoon milling profits in 2021 to be less than in 2020. Lending to farmers declined in the 2021 monsoon season compared to 2020. Fewer millers offered credit to farmers and the average value of credit-out was 21 percent lower. Increased transportation costs and transportation restrictions were also widespread challenges in September 2021. Diesel prices have increased by 31 percent since December 2020 and by 10 percent since June 2021. COVID-19 safety practices jumped following Myanmar’s third wave of cases: ninety-eight percent and 97 percent of millers adopted face coverings and regular handwashing, respectively. Expected monsoon season paddy harvests and milling throughput in 2021 are lower than 2020 (55 percent and 74 percent, respectively). Mill-level rice sales prices increased between June and September, following their normal season trends. Compared to last year, milling margins were higher for Emata varieties and lower for Pawsan, but overall milling margins in 2021 have been similar to their 2020 levels. Thus, milling margins are not a major contributor to changes in retail rice prices paid by consumers this year compared to last year. Recommendations: Credit guarantees to enable banks or MFIs to expand working capital to the milling sector should be considered to ensure the financial viability of rice milling. Easing transport restrictions and re-opening export markets would bring much needed stability to rice markets while relaxing the financial and production constraints that millers are experiencing.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - September 2021 survey round

Most food retail prices in September 2021 were found to be substantially higher than in September 2020. Retail prices of the cheapest variety of rice–by far the most important staple in Myanmar–have risen by 8 percent, on average. The relatively more expensive but widely locally consumed rice (pawsan) increased by 17 percent. Relative to September 2020, national-level food price inflation in September 2021 stood at 11 percent. Inflation was highest in the Hills and Mountains areas (15 percent). Households in the poorest quintile were affected by food price inflation more than those in the richest while rural areas (12 percent) were exposed to almost twice the level of food inflation compared to urban areas (6 percent). Food availability is seemingly not a challenge at the national level in September 2021. Food vendors report that availability of most commodities is comparable to the same period in a normal year. However, there are increasing trade frictions with higher transportation costs and more frequent mobility issues due to lockdowns and insecurity problems. COVID-19 prevention measures were widely practiced by market vendors in 2020. While they had been abandoned by a substantial share of vendors surveyed in the middle of the year, these prevention measures were again widely adhered to in September 2021.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2021 survey round

Mechanization service providers (MSPs) in Myanmar were originally interviewed by telephone in summer 2020, fall 2020, and June 2021, covering mostly combine-harvester service providers (CHSPs) and tractor service providers (TSPs), to determine how their businesses were being affected by COVID-19 related restrictions and political instability. The results of those surveys were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Notes 07, 12, 17, 39, 43 and 59 respectively. To trace the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the current political and social conditions on their economic activities, a seventh phone survey of MSPs was conducted in late July 2021. This reports on the results of the seventh survey as well as on some trends from earlier surveys.

Crop production and farm incomes in two areas of the central dry zone: Findings from June 2021

Using data from six phone survey rounds between June 2020 and June 2021, we found that the impacts of the recent political unrest in Myanmar further compound the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, both on the farm as well as on the non-farm rural economy.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – June 2021 survey round

To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s rice sector, we conducted an additional round of a telephone survey of medium- and large-scale rice millers in June 2021.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - July 2021 survey round

Most food retail prices in July 2021 were found to be higher than in the same period in 2020. Retail prices of the cheapest variety of rice–by far the most important staple in Myanmar–have risen by 13 percent, on average. Relative to a year ago, national-level food price inflation in July 2021 stood at 7 percent. Food price inflation was relatively higher in rural versus urban areas and in the Dry Zone and the Coastal areas. Households in the poorest quintile faced much higher food price inflation (10.4 percent) than those in the richest quintile (4.3 percent) as rice and cooking oils, which prices have increased substantially over the last year, are relatively more important in the poor’s food basket. Over the last year, prices rose most rapidly in the first half of 2021; the cost of a food basket in July 2021 was 8 percent higher than in December 2020. Food availability is seemingly not a challenge at the national level in July 2021. Food vendors report that the availability of most commodities is comparable to the same period in a normal year. About three-quarters of food vendors indicate that customers are buying less animal-sourced foods (i.e., chicken and pork) compared to normal periods. This likely is an indication of reduced consumer income as well as higher prices for those products. COVID-19 prevention measures were widely practiced by market vendors in 2020. However, they had been abandoned by a substantial share of the vendors surveyed in May 2021. Adoption rates in July 2021 improved compared to the previous survey round in May 2021 but were still below 2020 levels.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – June 2021 survey round

Mechanization service providers (MSPs) in Myanmar were originally interviewed by phone in the summer and fall of 2020. The phone surveys covered combine harvester SPs (CHSPs) and tractor SPs (TSPs) to determine how their businesses were affected by COVID-19 related restrictions. The results of those surveys were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Notes 07, 12, 17, 39, and 43, respectively. To trace the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current political and social conditions on their economic activities, a sixth phone survey of MSPs was conducted in early June 2021. This Research reports on the results of the sixth survey as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural commodity traders - May 2021 survey round

To understand how Myanmar’s crop marketing system has been affected by political instability, phone interviews were conducted in May with 78 agricultural commodity traders. Key Findings: ▪ Although there have been modest improvements since the previous survey in March 2021, disruptions to transportation, payments, credit, and telecommunications are still widespread, with 94 percent of interviewed traders in May experiencing at least one business disruption. ▪ Credit for trading operations is a much more frequently cited difficulty compared to a year ago. Forty percent of traders reported challenges obtaining new credit or loans in May 2021 and 37 percent reported difficulties repaying loans, compared to just 15 percent and 10 percent in May 2020, respectively. ▪ Although credit demand increased, there has been a decline in credit provision to farmers. The share of traders offering credit dropped by 18 percentage points in May 2021 compared to May 2020, and the average value of credit lent by traders still lending is 30 percent lower. Unwillingness to lend may be related to increased difficulties in loan recovery–48 percent of traders experienced difficulties collecting repayment on credit lent to farmers in May 2021 compared to 27 percent in May 2020. ▪ There has been a dramatic reduction in adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures compared to the same period a year ago, despite the third wave of the pandemic underway and the presence of new and more contagious variants. ▪ Cash payments have become increasingly dominant for purchases and sales as bank transfers and mobile payments are rarely being used. The use of the Hundi system has also decreased in recent months. ▪ Crop volumes traded are down 12 percent compared to a year ago and sesame prices have dropped by one-third their value.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – June 2021 survey round

To understand the effects of recent disruptions on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of input retailers was conducted in June 2021.
Key findings:
▪ Prices of key agricultural inputs–fertilizer, pesticides, maize seed, and vegetable seed– are higher in June 2021 compared to June 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19. Onaverage, urea fertilizer prices are 52 percent higher and compound fertilizer prices are 29 percent higher.
▪ Reported input sales are much lower in June 2021 than in June 2020, with fertilizer sales volumes 48 percent lower on average and maize seed 39 percent lower on average.
▪ There continue to be widespread business disruptions stemming from political instability. Issues in the banking sector are the biggest disruption for 75 percent of our sample, though 84 percent also reported higher transportation costs.
▪ Nearly two-thirds of interviewed input retailers have offered inputs on credit to farmers this monsoon season. However, 79 percent intend to decrease their total value of credit compared to last year. Only 22 percent of input retailers reported that farmers in their area received MADB loans for the 2021 monsoon season.
▪ During the third wave of COVID-19 in Myanmar, adoption of safety practices is much lower than during the first wave. Sixty percent of input retailers adopted at least one practice, but only 44 percent were regularly washing their hands and only 47 percent were wearing masks.
▪ Higher input costs and lower access to credit will likely result in lower purchased input use and lower yields for monsoon crops. Measures to support combine harvesting and post-harvest management (e.g., drying) could help minimize further yield loss.

Community perceptions of changes in rural livelihoods since onset of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from Round 7 of the National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) – May 2021

COVID-19 prevention measures are at their lowest levels since June 2020. However, several restrictions were recently implemented to curtail political unrest that are likely to also slow the spread of the virus. Communities have experienced further reductions in employment opportunities. The estimated share of adults who are unemployed is at its highest level since June 2020. In May 2021, respondents estimated that nearly half of adults in urban communities and 37 percent of adults in rural communities were unemployed in the past month. Agricultural production thus far appears robust but has suffered from poor weather conditions, whereas crop sales are affected by low crop prices and mobility restrictions. The share of households receiving remittances is estimated to be only half of those receiving remittances at the end of 2020. Whereas the end of the year is traditionally a period where more remittances are received, the recent decline is likely also related to challenges in the financial sector and to reduction in domestic employment, especially in urban areas. Financial services are disrupted in two-thirds of the communities. These disruptions include bank closures (in 58 percent of communities), challenges in meeting loan officers (19 percent), and shortages of money in ATMs (7 percent). There is a stark increase in the share of households who urgently need assistance. Community respondents estimate that in May 2021 one-third of households on average are in urgent need of assistance, which is twice as high as the share estimated in July 2020. Coping mechanisms have changed since mid-2020 with communities no longer receiving cash-based assistance. Households are relying less on credit and loans. Instead, they are increasingly reducing both food and non-food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets.

Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Household survey evidence from May 2021

Six rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) conducted in 2020 demonstrated the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on poverty and food insecurity among approximately 2,000 households with pregnant women or young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. In this Research Note, we present results from a follow-up round conducted in May 2021.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - May 2021 survey round

This Research presents the results from seven rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar, focusing more specifically on the results from the last round completed in May 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the explores COVID-19 prevention measures, changes in shopping behavior, difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises, changes in availability and prices of foods, and perceived changes in consumption.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – April 2021 survey round

Rice mills are the most important link in Myanmar’s rice value chain. Mills buy paddy from farmers and process it into rice, the primary staple of Myanmar accounting for more than 50 percent of calories consumed in the country. Thus, disruptions to the milling sector have important upstream implications for farm incomes as well as downstream implications for household food security. In this Research Note, we present results and analysis of recent economic disruptions to rice mills from an April 2021 round of a telephone panel survey of 445 millers in Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Yangon. We examine (i) disruptions caused by the current political and COVID-19 crises; (ii) responses to these disruptions; and (iii) and price changes for paddy, head rice, broken rice, and rice bran in April 2021 relative to April 2020 and to January 2021, prior to the political crisis that began on 1 February.

Early impacts of the Myanmar political crisis on rural farm households: Findings from March 2021

Using phone survey data from March 2021, we found that the impacts of the recent political unrest in Myanmar further compound the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, both on the farm as well as on the non-farm rural economy. Within one month of the start of the political unrest, we observed the following: ▪ 10 percent of farm households experienced disruptions in accessing farm inputs in February, particularly farm machinery and inorganic fertilizers. ▪ Compared to their interactions with input markets, farmers face substantially higher disruptions in their engagements with output markets. Twenty percent of farmers were unable to sell their produce in February, with an additional 27 percent experiencing difficulties in selling or receiving lower prices than expected. ▪ 45 percent of non-farm enterprises experienced additional disruptions in February, further aggravating the economic downturn they had experienced due to COVID-19. ▪ 34 percent of respondents who normally engage in farm or non-farm wage labor experienced additional challenges in finding employment. In combination with the continued impacts of COVID-19, a total of 78 percent of workers now have no or less wage employment income. ▪ Respondents continue to report lower-than-usual consumption of meat and fish due to reduced incomes.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural urban wholesale markets – April 2021

Prices of major agricultural products in the two major urban wholesale markets of Mandalay and Yangon were collected during the month of April 2021. Compared to prices from a year earlier in April 2020: - Wholesale prices of mostly domestically consumed agricultural products, e.g., potato, onions, chili, and mung bean, are significantly lower by between -22 and -48 percent, likely linked to reduced demand compared to a normal year. - Wholesale prices of agricultural products linked to export markets, e.g., maize and pigeon pea, have increased slightly from 2 to 11 percent, likely because of the stabilizing effects of limited international market access. - Wholesale prices of agricultural products that are imported, such as palm oil, have increased significantly likely due to the problems in the port. For example, palm oil prices were up by 66 percent in Yangon compared to a year earlier.

Is poverty in Myanmar on the rise? Poverty predictions from Google mobility data

The severe economic impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy have been accentuated by the recent political instability. In this note, we present the most recent evidence on changes in Google consumer mobility data, since these are leading indicators of changes in household income, and use a previous econometric model linking mobility indices to survey-based household poverty to predict what may be happening to poverty in Myanmar in 2021.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – March 2021 survey round

To understand the effects of recent disruptions on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a telephone survey of input retailers was conducted in March 2021. Key findings: The majority of input retailers report declines in sales of all types of inputs compared to a year ago. Uncertainty about crop output prices and difficulties in accessing markets are reported as the main drivers of lower input purchases.; Fertilizer prices have risen between 10 and 20 percent compared to a year ago. With prices expected to rise substantially in the coming months due to shipping and transportation cost increases, retailers anticipate reductions in fertilizer purchases.; As is the case for commodity traders, input retailers are switching to cash purchases in place of inter-bank transfers for obtaining their inventory due to limited banking services.; Two-thirds of retailers have made credit available to customers, and 88 percent of those who have done so have experienced late repayments from farmers. Even though most input retailers expect eventual repayment, 30 percent plan to reduce the credit they will extend to farmers for the coming season.; The combination of uncertain crop prices, higher costs to access markets, financial market disruptions, and expected increases in input prices all point to lower farm investment in production inputs for the coming monsoon season. Recommended actions: The restoration of inter-bank transfer services will reduce transactions costs for input retailers.; Imports of fertilizer and agro-inputs through the ports need to be expedited. Similarly, restrictions on transportation must be lifted to avoid late delivery of inputs to farmers for the monsoon season.; Temporary measures to offset expected fertilizer price increases and to avoid reductions in fertilizer use by smallholder farmers in the coming monsoon season should be considered.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural commodity traders - March 2021 survey round

To understand how Myanmar’s crop marketing system has been affected by political instability, telephone interviews were conducted in March with 108 agricultural commodity traders.