Research Notes

× In this research note, we report results on the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers of young children using data collected in Yangon and Ayeyarwady as part of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS). This in-person study, conducted between October–November 2023, surveyed mothers who were registered from antenatal clinics in peri-urban Yangon in early 2020. In this latest survey round, we revisited this sample of mother-child pairs to gather anthropometric data (along with other nutrition-relevant indicators). We successfully collected anthropometric data for 646 mothers.

× This research note presents the results of 26 rounds of interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas throughout Myanmar conducted between June 2020 and March 2024. The purpose of the surveys is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. The focus of this research note is on changes in food prices and the cost of common and healthy diets.

× This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the post-monsoon (dry season) 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 5001 crop farmers undertaken in June – July 2023. Most farmer input use decisions were taken prior to damage inflicted by Cyclone Mocha.
Key findings
• Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas.
• In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality.
• Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm.
• Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas.
• Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access.
• The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled.
Recommendations
• Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff.
• The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication.
• As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.

× In August 2023, we surveyed 388 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.
Key findings
• Patterns of reported business disruptions show substantial improvements compared to a year ago, but limited changes since March 2023. Access to electricity remained the most common disruption and was reported to be the biggest challenge by more than half of the sample. Fuel cost, fuel access, and transportation costs were also common disruptions although they are far less common than in August 2022.
• Larger mills mostly use electricity and are therefore most impacted by the persistent electrical supply issues. Yet some have expanded their power sources in the past three years by investing in electricity generators powered by husks or fuel.
• Despite the challenges, milling throughput in 2023 is similar to 2022. However, paddy and rice storage volumes are significantly lower this year, while conditional average amount of credit provided to farmers increased significantly during the 2023 monsoon season.
• Paddy and rice prices continued their rapid upward trajectory that began in mid-2022 and in August were 80 percent higher than one year prior and 2.5 times the price from 2021. The local Myanmar price changes are largely driven by global rice markets and foreign exchange rates.
Looking forward
• Recent policies to keep consumer rice prices low – including efforts to control rice prices and to limit export licensing – along with erratic foreign exchange policies can lead to increased price volatility and uncertainty for farmers, traders, millers, and exporters. If domestic paddy and rice prices fall because of these interventions, millers and farmers are less likely to recover investment costs, pay off debts, and make profits for further investment in next year’s productions.

× We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on largescale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until August 2023) and households (fielded in 5 periods in 2022 and 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar.
Key Findings
 Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent.
 After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high.
 Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023.
 Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.
 The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages.
 Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas.
Recommended Actions
 Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.
 As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.

× To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023.
Key Findings
• Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022.
• Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022.
• The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs.
• Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs.
• More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high.
• The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels.
Looking Forward
• Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production.
• However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons.
• More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.