Maize is the second most important crop in Myanmar in terms of value of production, accounting for 9 percent of total crop output annually. Although maize is used primarily as livestock feed and not for direct human consumption, it is an important input in Myanmar’s growing poultry industry as well as an important cash crop, accounting for more than half of crop incomes in southern Shan. This blog post presents highlights of indicators of monsoon maize production. To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, researchers from the Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in southern Shan and northern Kayah in July and September 2021 with recall data collected for the 2020 and 2019 monsoon seasons for comparisons.
You can view the full research note in English here.
Disruptions to 2021 monsoon maize production
We also asked farmers about the effects of the political and COVID-19 crises on maize production in September. Reduced input use was the most common effect cited by 63 percent of respondents. Input prices have risen sharply in 2021 relative to 2020, which is reflected in lower use. Other effects on maize production included lower availability of hired labor (35 percent), delayed planting or land preparation (32 percent), less area cultivated (28 percent), and a change in crops planted (26 percent). Each of these effects will have a negative impact on household and aggregate maize production. Also important for rural incomes, 22 percent of respondents reported less work available on other farms, thus there may be simultaneous declines in demand and supply of hired labor perhaps reflecting overall lower labor mobility.
Effects of political and COVID-19 crises on 2021 monsoon maize production, percentage reporting
Looking ahead
Overall, maize farmers in southern Shan and northern Kayah may be relatively better off than farmers for other crops in other parts of the country. However, despite both a relatively stable market with increasing prices and continued access to farm credit–mostly through traders and brokers–maize farmers, especially smaller farms, are unlikely to enjoy higher farm incomes in the 2021 monsoon marketing season relative to 2020 for the following reasons:
• Input prices increased significantly, and other costs of production will also rise. Further, high fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields.
• Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020.
• Pest incidence rates, especially for fall armyworm, were high early in the season, posing another threat to production.
• There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.
• Curfews and transportation restrictions at multiple levels together with higher transportation costs may reduce farmer market access or otherwise lead to lower farmgate prices; 70 percent of farmers expect disruptions to their monsoon marketing activities.
This blog post highlights one of the many recent surveys and research notes that MAPSA has conducted to assess the emerging constraints that key agricultural actors face and to mitigate the possible impacts of COVID-19 and recent disruptions on rural livelihoods and food security. Additional blog posts are available highlighting MAPSA’s research on the impact of disruptions on key actors in Myanmar’s agri-food system. Surveys are ongoing, and findings and recommendations will be periodically updated.
