Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. Researchers from the Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) interviewed about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.
You can view the full research note in English here.
Consumer mobility fell sharply again during the most recent COVID-19 wave
Figure 1 reports trends in the Google Mobility Index, which measures how much phone users are staying at home compared to a pre-COVID-19 baseline for Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Indonesia (i.e., comparator countries with similar economic structures and levels of development). There were four distinct shocks throughout 2021 along with aborted economic recoveries: (1) the first wave of COVID-19, associated with lockdown measures imposed in April 2020; (2) the second wave of COVID-19 associated with the rapid spread of COVID-19 cases from September 2020 to January 2021; (3) the military takeover from February 2021 and the ensuing disruptions; and (4) the third COVID-19 wave that occurred between June and September 2021.
Figure 1. Trends in the Google Mobility Index in 2020 and 2021 in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Indonesia
The extent to which Myanmar consumers stayed at home increased by 20 percent in the first of these lockdowns (less than Bangladesh but more than Indonesia). However, subsequent mobility shocks were far more severe, with the Mobility Index invariably 10-20 points higher in Myanmar than in the other two countries. In the recent Delta wave that affected all three countries in mid-2021, Myanmar’s Mobility Index was at 26 percent for two consecutive months, compared to 13-14 percent in a single month (July) in Bangladesh and Indonesia. However, updated mobility data as of late 2021 suggests that Myanmar consumers are staying at home more not only due to COVID-19 cases (which were low in late 2021), but likely also due to other factors associated with economic and political instability. Indeed, as of late December 2021, consumers stayed at home 17 percent more than pre-COVID-19 times in Myanmar, compared to 4-5 percent more in the other two countries.
Respondents cite wide-ranging impacts of political instability, with rising food supply problems a worrying trend
Figure 3 reports results from a question asking respondents to list the three main impacts of recent political instability. In May 2021–our first survey after the military takeover–respondents cited job/income losses more frequently than other impacts, though from May to December 2021 we observe a dramatic doubling of the share citing food supply problems (likely reflect high rates of food inflation, food shortages and disruptions to agricultural production) and a large increase in the share of households citing personal safety problems (55 percent in December 2021 compared to 38 percent in May) and fear of household members getting hurt or detained (28 percent in December 2021). There are not many differences across sub-samples.
Figure 3. Respondents increasingly cite food supply problems, safety issues and long-distance travel restrictions as the main impacts of political instability
This blog post highlights one of the many recent surveys and research notes that MAPSA has conducted to assess the emerging constraints that key agricultural actors face and to mitigate the possible impacts of COVID-19 and recent disruptions on rural livelihoods and food security. Additional blog posts are available highlighting MAPSA’s research on the impact of disruptions on key actors in Myanmar’s agri-food system. Surveys are ongoing, and findings and recommendations will be periodically updated.
