The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using three publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar. You can read the full report here.
Food Commodity Developments
- Rice prices have stabilized after the rapid increases observed in previous years, largely influenced by international price trends and exchange rate fluctuations. In September, rice prices were three percent lower than a year ago. Although there was a six percent increase compared to August, this is likely reflecting elevated prices at the end of the lean season before the new monsoon harvest.
- Major export crops—such as maize and pulses (including green gram, black gram, chickpea, and pigeon pea)—have experienced significant price increases compared to last year, primarily driven by market developments in India.
Regional Developments
- Last year, Sagaing experienced extremely high rice prices—66 percent above the national average, likely driven by the high conflict intensity in that region—but this difference decreased in September, indicating improvements in production and trade for that region.
- The most secure regions and states, which are also major rice-producing areas, tend to have the lowest prices. Ayeyarwady, Nay Pyi Taw, and Bago report the lowest prices among all regions and states.
- In Shan (North), the center of military offensives by the Three Brotherhood Alliance since October 27, 2023, rice prices were one percent lower than the national average in September 2023. However, prices have since risen to 25 percent above the national average, reflecting the difficulties of trade in that area of the country.
- Mandalay, which was severely impacted by flooding, also experienced substantial price increases compared to last year, with prices now 11 percent higher than the national average.
Look Forward
- Severe flooding has affected agricultural production in key rice-producing areas (Mandalay, Bago East, Kayin, Mon, and Shan (South)), resulting in significant hardship. It will be crucial to monitor the situation in food and agricultural markets in these areas and assess recovery efforts.
- Ongoing conflicts have driven up food prices in heavily affected regions, such as Rakhine and Shan (North). Given the further escalation of conflicts in the country, food security in these areas is likely to remain precarious.
This work was undertaken as part of the Feed the Future Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis (MAPSA) led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and in partnership with Michigan State University (MSU). This study was made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency of International Development (USAID). This publication has not gone through IFPRI’s standard peer-review procedure. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, IFPRI, MSU, CGIAR, or the United States Government.