The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2024. It follows six rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the seventh round related to shocks including conflict, climatic, service sector, and economic.
The security situation in Myanmar continued to worsen during the seventh-round recall period, which spanned from January to June 2024. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households, and had low levels of trust in their communities, as reported also by 23 percent of households. This is because crime and violence remained high, affecting 16 and 9 percent of communities, respectively.
Lawlessness continues to be a widespread issue in Myanmar. In January–June 2024, 18 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community and 13 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. A new challenge is risk of conscription, reported by 39 percent of households. Another crucial challenge is that 13 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community.
The two states/regions where households felt the most insecure between January and June 2024 were Kayah and Chin. Further, the security situation in Rakhine, Kayah, and Chin worsened considerably compared to the same time last year. These areas witnessed the highest increases in reported insecurity and high levels of lawlessness. While the lowest levels of reported insecurity continued to be in Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Nay Pyi Taw, these regions are still confronting much of the same risks as experienced across the country, and youths in those regions face a high risk of conscription.
Households are confronted with multiple shocks besides insecurity. In January–June 2024, 14 percent of farm households reported being negatively impacted by at least one climatic shock. Intense wind was a major issue in Chin with 19 percent of households negatively affected. Disruptions to the internet and electricity also negatively affected household wellbeing and livelihoods. For residents that accessed electricity from the national power grid, 81 percent of households had a power cut of at least one hour from 8:00 am to 8:00 pm all seven days of the week prior to the interview. Further, between January and June 2024, almost half of the households (48 percent) did not have access to the internet regularly.
Access to medical services and school enrolment improved at the beginning of 2024 compared to the beginning of 2023, though medical access and school enrollment were much lower in conflict affected areas. Further, school enrollment actually declined in Rakhine and Kayah, compared to the same period in the previous year.
Food inflation reached 42 percent between April and June 2024 and a similar period the previous year (on average 3 percent per month). The prices of most foods in our survey increased considerably over the one-year period, with median rice prices increasing by 54 percent. Petrol prices surged by 44 percent over the same period following a net increase of only 5 percent in the previous year. During the same period, the price of bar soap increased by 39 percent; paracetamol increased by 31 percent; and toothpaste increased by 21 percent, the largest increases seen since the survey began.
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