The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar. You can read the full report here.
Key Developments
- Official rate fixed at 2,100 MMK/USD for over two years; online trading rate increased by 1.4% since September 2024 and 20.7% in October 2024 compared to October 2023.
- Diesel and petrol prices rose by 16.4% and 48.8% respectively in October 2024 compared to October 2023.
- Rice prices saw a modest rise of 7.5% in October 2024 compared to October 2023, a slower increase than in previous years, driven by international price trends and exchange rate fluctuations. Rice prices were considerably high in Shan (North) due to conflict and Mandalay, likely due to the severe flooding in September 2024.
- Export crop prices rose significantly in October 2024 compared to the same period last year, driven by international market development. While vegetable prices were considerably volatile: onion and chili prices fell due to export challenges, but potato prices surged by 119% due to conflicts at the Myanmar-China border, disrupting imports.
- Most animal-sourced food prices rose significantly in October 2024 compared to October 2023, with chicken up 58%, eggs up 45%, and other meats showing similar increases, driven by higher costs for animal feed, veterinary medicines, and transport.
- Fish prices were stable year-on-year but spiked recently, partly due to Typhoon Yagi, which caused the loss of 200,000 livestock and nearly 2,000 acres of fishponds across six states/regions.
Looking Forward
- Flood impacts on agricultural production: Severe flooding in key rice-producing areas (Mandalay, Bago East, Kayin, Mon, and Shan (South), is impacting monsoon production. Monitoring food and agricultural markets in these areas and evaluating the progress of recovery efforts will be critical.
- Conflict-driven food price increases: Ongoing conflicts, particularly in Rakhine and Shan (North) have driven up food prices in these areas. As conflicts continue to escalate, food security in these areas is likely to remain fragile.
- Monsoon harvest season: November marks the main harvest period for monsoon crops, likely placing downward pressure on prices for certain food products in the upcoming months.
This work was undertaken as part of the Feed the Future Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis (MAPSA) led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and in partnership with Michigan State University (MSU). This study was made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency of International Development (USAID). This publication has not gone through IFPRI’s standard peer-review procedure. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, IFPRI, MSU, CGIAR, or the United States Government.