To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, researchers from Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis (MAPSA) conducted a phone survey of 179 active input retailers throughout the country from August 23-September 5, 2024.
You can view the full publication here.
Key Findings
- Persistent Economic Disruptions: Input retailers face ongoing challenges from high input costs, exchange rate volatility, and logistical disruptions, leading to significant revenue losses.
- Shift in Transaction Methods: As banking operations normalize, input retailers are increasingly using bank transfers and mobile payments for purchasing inputs, while cash remains the primary method for sales, reflecting a cautious adaptation to new financial tools.
- Rising Costs and Reduced Sales: Increased prices for key inputs like fertilizers have led to a notable decrease in sales volumes, suggesting that higher costs are dampening demand and potentially impacting farmers’ ability to sustain productivity.
- High Impact of Economic and Conflict-Related Shocks: Ongoing shocks from high input costs, exchange rate volatility, and regional conflicts have significantly impacted Myanmar’s input retailers, with revenue losses of 30-40 percent.
- Diverse but declining Support Services: Input retailers provide a wide range of additional advisory and technical services. However, the share of retailers offering these services has declined over the past decade, potentially reducing farmers' access to essential input guidance and impacting agricultural productivity.
Looking Forward
- Resilience and Adaptability: Despite inflation and supply chain issues, many input retailers remain resilient, sustaining core demand and adopting digital payment methods, signaling a stable foundation for potential recovery.
- Targeted Policy Needs: Strengthening Myanmar's input retail sector requires policies to stabilize input costs, exchange rate, and reinforce supply chains, fostering resilience to support farmers amid economic and political uncertainties.
