This research note presents findings from a non-representative survey of more than 50 key informants across 10 states and regions in Myanmar. It provides evidence on the rapidly changing profitability of paddy production ahead of the upcoming monsoon season, as well as key informants' expectations regarding the likely impacts of these developments.
Key Findings
- In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024.
- Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export).
- According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier.
- In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season.
- Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 - especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years.
Paddy rice is a critically important crop in Myanmar. It is the country’s primary staple food—contributing 51 percent of urban and 62 percent of rural calorie intake—and a vital source of income for farmers. During the monsoon season, it is typically cultivated by at least 60 percent of crop farmers. Rice is also a key export commodity, with Myanmar ranking as the world’s fifth-largest rice exporter. As such, any changes in the incentive structure for monsoon paddy production are expected to have significant implications for farmer incomes, national exports, and domestic food consumption.
This research note presents findings from a non-representative survey of more than 50 key informants across 10 states and regions in Myanmar. It provides evidence on the rapidly changing profitability of paddy production ahead of the upcoming monsoon season, as well as key informants' expectations regarding the likely impacts of these developments.
Key informant interviews suggest a challenging outlook for monsoon paddy farming in 2025, shaped by weakening price incentives and rising production costs. Farmers are expected to respond by reducing cultivated area and cutting back on fertilizer use, particularly in more commercialized regions like the Delta. These adjustments are likely to result in lower production and incomes, threatening the relative resilience that Myanmar’s farmers have maintained in recent years.
Given current trends, continued monitoring of international rice prices throughout the monsoon season is essential, alongside close attention to factors driving up processing and marketing costs—such as transportation, fuel, and labor, as well as ongoing trade restrictions.
Improvements in the broader policy environment will be important to restore adequate incentives for paddy production. Revising the dual exchange rate system to ensure exporters—and, by extension, farmers—receive fairer and more predictable returns could help bolster profitability. In parallel, addressing persistent barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—including roadblocks, restrictive regulations, transportation bottlenecks, and energy shortages—would help narrow the widening gap between farmgate and consumer prices and strengthen the resilience of Myanmar’s rice sector.