Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5,000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation.
Key Findings - Download the Report
- Weather challenges rank high among the major reported challenges faced by farmers, especially in more recent years. Between 2021 and 2024, an average of 18 percent of farmers identified weather as a primary challenge for farming. On average, across each season over the three survey years, 7 percent of farmers reported that crop production was affected by drought during the monsoon and dry seasons, while 5 and 4 percent, respectively, reported flood impacts during these same seasons. At the level of the largest plot of paddy rice (the major crop grown in the country), farmers experienced an average of 1.4 floods or droughts over a five-year period, pointing to significant weather-related risk.
- Most farmers indicate that the incidences of floods and droughts are becoming more severe in most recent years compared to previous periods. Moreover, irregular rainfall is increasingly becoming a challenge in farming.
- Overall changes in the adoption of Climate-Smart Agricultural (CSA) technologies have been limited over the last six years. Furthermore, smallholders are significantly less likely than medium or large farms to adopt CSA technologies, particularly in the areas of diversification, crop management, and post-harvest practices. More remote households also show significantly lower rates of adoption.
- Climatic risks are associated with reduced agricultural land values—an immobile production factor particularly vulnerable to such risks. Droughts, in particular, have a significant impact: each additional drought event is associated with an 8 percent decrease in rice land value, compared to a 4 percent reduction per additional flood. This may indicate that droughts cause greater losses and damage than floods.
- Conflicts also negatively affect land values, aligning with the observed decline in agricultural profitability in conflict-affected areas, albeit with a temporal lag.
- There is large variation by agro-ecological zone in conflict exposure, weather-related risks, as well as in the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. We find significant spatial differences in perceived insecurity, with significantly higher levels in the Dry Zone and Coastal areas. Based on data from the largest rice plots, the Coastal region faces the highest overall climatic risk, while the Hills and Mountains region experiences the lowest. Floods and droughts were reported with equal frequency at the national level, each affecting plots an average of 0.7 times over the past five years, while regional patterns vary substantially: floods were more commonly reported in the Delta and Coastal areas, whereas droughts were more prevalent in the Dry Zone. Adoption rate changes of CSA technologies are significantly higher in the Delta, the more commercial area in the country.