We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability for the 2024 and 2025 dry seasons, using data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 11 to October 26, 2025. The survey covered plots managed by 872 paddy producers.
Key Findings - Download the Report
- Prices of key inputs – urea and mechanization – increased significantly between the two growing seasons, by 18 and 12 percent on average, respectively. The largest increase was in agricultural labor costs, rising 46 percent for women and 49 percent for men, likely driven by migration linked to the conscription law. In contrast, farmgate paddy prices fell by 15 percent compared to the previous dry season.
- Nominal profits for paddy farmers fell sharply over the last two seasons. The ratio of revenues over monetary costs per acre declined by one-third, making paddy farming the least profitable in the past 5 years.
- National-level rice productivity on farmers’ largest rice plot in the 2025 dry season was 7.5 percent lower than the year before. Twelve percent of the rice farmers reported negative effects of flooding during the dry season.
- Paddy production in the 2025 monsoon is expected to be well below normal: (a) Two percent of farmers who cultivated paddy in 2024 stopped in 2025; (b) Seven percent reduced their paddy area compared to a normal year; (c) Forty percent of farmers in the Delta – the country’s rice bowl – anticipate lower paddy production this year compared to a typical year. Paddy farmers’ incomes are likely to fall sharply this monsoon season, as paddy prices have fallen by 15 percent compared to last year, while input costs have risen by 16 to 21 percent.