This working paper analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2025 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2026. The survey covered plots managed by 2,734 rice producers across all states and regions of the country.
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- National rice productivity, measured on farmers’ largest plots, declined by an average of 8 percent during the 2025 monsoon compared to 2023. This lower productivity was primarily driven by reduced incentives for production as shown by reduced labor inputs, with more farmers adopting broadcasting methods, as well as an increased incidence of natural shocks, notably floods and heavy rains.
- The Delta agro-ecological zone, the country’s principal rice-producing area, experienced a 7 percent decline in rice productivity in 2025 compared to 2023, while the Coastal agro-ecological zone recorded the largest decline among all zones, with yields falling by 22 percent. This sharp reduction was partly driven by poor performance in Rakhine State, which was largely cut off from commercial input and output markets in 2025, considerably reducing the use of modern inputs in rice production.
- Thirty-six percent of paddy farmers reported being affected by climatic or other production shocks during the 2025 monsoon season. Floods, reported by 10 percent of farmers, and heavy rains, reported by 15 percent, had significant adverse effects on yields. Among affected farmers, paddy yields declined by 34 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
- Significant changes in rice cultivation input costs were observed between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 23 percent, while mechanization costs, measured through plowing costs, increased by 55 percent. Wages recorded the sharpest increases, likely reflecting escalating rural labor scarcity. Wages increased by 88 percent for men and 83 percent for women. Overall input expenditures per acre of rice cultivated increased by 63 percent.
- Farmgate paddy prices declined by 6 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons.
- Given rising input costs and declining paddy prices, paddy farming profits declined substantially and reached their lowest level in the last six years. Nominal profits per acre fell by 40 percent between 2023 and 2025.
- Commercially obtained inputs are significantly associated with higher rice yields. A doubling of commercial input expenditures is associated with a 34 percent increase in yields, while a doubling of chemical fertilizer use is associated with a 9 percent increase in yields, ceteris paribus. The use of organic fertilizer is also positively and significantly associated with higher yields, with users obtaining yields that are 4 percent higher on average.